저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 연준이 금리 인하를 경계하는 태도에서 벗어나 인하를 준비해야 하며, 2024년은 좋은 해가 될 수 있다는 낙관론. [시장 전망] 연초 S&P500 10~15% 상승을 예상했고 현재 그보다 약간 위. 매그니피센트 7이 상승을 주도. 올해 가장 큰 우려는 연준이 금리 인하에 인색할 가능성. [경기 판단] 지난주 지표는 약했음. 연착륙이 보장된 것은 아니며 아직 경기침체를 예상하지는 않는다고 함. [통화·인플레이션] 지난 2년간 통화량 증가가 거의 없었음. 경제 성장과 2% 물가에 필요한 약 5% 유동성 증가에 크게 못 미침. 과거 인플레이션은 과소평가되어 실제로는 더 낮았다는 기존 주장을 재확인. [금리 방향] 장기금리(10년)가 5%에서 정점 후 4.5%로 하락. 역전 해소를 위해 연방기금금리 인하가 필요하다고 주장. 장기채 금리 상승으로 역전이 해소되는 시나리오는 배제. 물가가 거의 잡혔으므로 연방기금금리 5~5.5%는 과도하게 긴축적이라고 평가. [리스크] 주택건설 심리가 4개월간 급락, 실업수당 청구 건수는 2년 만에 최고 수준으로 상승. 이는 향후 경기 둔화 신호로 제시. [결론] 연준이 인하를 말하기 시작해야 하며 실질금리가 과도하게 높다는 입장. 인하 시 신용 확대로 2024년 호황 가능성.
다듬은 글
for more in the markets let's bring in Jeremy seagull professor emeritus of Finance uh would you it's not a roar Shack I don't think Jeremy but would you say everything that you've been saying for the last six months are we we're kind of seeing a lot of it uh either be exactly true or at least partially true well I remember on January 1st I said we're going to have a 10 to 15% gain I think we're slightly above that on the S&P of course those magnificent 7 have been a big contribution to that um but Joe I mean I I I I only have one worry for for next year and otherwise I think it could be a absolutely great year and that is that the FED will be as stubborn in lowering rates if they have to as they were in raising rates being so very late to the game and causing the inflation I mean let's face it last week's data was weak I mean we're talking people talk about coming in for a soft Landing we're coming in for a landing it's not guaranteed to be soft not yet now I'm not calling for a recession I just want the FED to be flexible I was a little Disturbed when you know uh Jay PO said at the last conference oh we're we're not even talking about lower lowering rates I think they should be talking about not necessarily doing it right away but uh you know the data is looking very different than it just did three or four weeks ago lower inflation but also a lower uh level of economic activity that is trending downward but you had been talking all along since January as you said about that the money supply was actually Contracting more quickly than you thought that the the conditions were tighter than they looked uh that that inflation was being overstated by by certain uh components and it was actually lower than it appeared so all those things uh seem to have been borne out as more data has come out yeah and and and and really uh you know I mean we've had no growth in money supply over two years you know you need about a 5% growth in that important liquidity measure to get a growing economy with 2% inflation um and I know I I I'm I'm a little worried is he better not go to the back to The Narrative of the oh stop and go we got to absolutely kill inflation it's very very different in the 1970s you know Burns pump money in at 10% a year without fail here howwell stopped it it started going down and of course I became very alarmed then eased up a little bit it began to rise last two months declining again and now when I look at that real economic data I said you know he's got to be thinking with they lower rates they'll get that credit going up again we could have a real great year for 2024 well would there be any reason to uh start cutting rates if we have a soft Landing Jeremy why not just it seems like we need we we normalize where rates used to be prior to the financial crisis you think we should stay here or are we too tight right now well I think listen I think we should uninverted peaked at 5% on that long end now we're 4 and a half% well that means that we have to start moving down on on on fed funds I mean it's not going to unvert by the long Bond going up to five and a half and six I mean some people talked about that a while ago no if we're going to un invert it we're gonna have to bring it we're gonna have to start bringing it bringing it down and you know just if we have very little inflation uh you know five and five and a half% Fed funds is a very punishing real rate um even with you know the promise of AI and everything else it'll be hard to overcome that look what's happened in the in the U home building now we got we got good housing starts but Home Building sentiment has collapsed over the last four months and um you know that is another area of softness you have to consider going forward so given inflation is licked in my opinion and I've said that for a long time as you said um real rates are extremely high with the jobless claims going up by the way we had a twoyear highers and you know in continuing claims I think it's time to uninverted
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