저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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연준 금리인상 사이클은 끝났다는 시장 판단에는 동의하나, 내년 금리인하 기대는 지나치게 공격적이라는 결론. 시장은 연착륙을 전제로 인상 종료와 내년 공격적 인하를 가격에 반영 중이며, 채권 스프레드 등 여러 지표가 이를 뒷받침한다고 설명. 다만 새로운 중립금리 수준과 서비스 부문 디스인플레이션 동학에 큰 불확실성이 있어, 연준은 추가 인상 없이 지연 효과를 지켜봐야 한다고 주장. 추가 인상은 하지 말아야 한다는 입장. 소비자 측면에서는 선물 등 일부 상품 가격은 하락했지만, 여행·외식 등 서비스 물가는 여전히 높아 체감 부담이 크다고 언급. 내년 기업 실적은 평균적으로는 10~12% 성장을 기대하기 어렵고, 소수 종목만 상승을 주도하는 높은 분산(dispersion) 장세가 될 것이라고 전망. 살아남을 종목 조건으로 현금 풍부·탄탄한 재무제표, 강한 구조적 성장 흐름, 우수한 경영진을 제시. 금리가 시장 기대만큼 빨리 내려오지 않을 것이라는 점이 근거. 영상 후반부는 NFL 제츠 쿼터백 관련 잡담으로 투자 무관.
다듬은 글
our next guest says that the narrative pingpong about the type of economic Landing uh that market analysts are expecting is far from over let's bring in Muhammad alaran a chief economic advisor at alians and president of Queens College at cabridge University I was I was wondering whether it was over I I read a piece that said uh you can expect stocks to keep getting a pretty good bid Muhammad as people come to the uh conclusion that the soft Landing dream is actually playing out and it's always been nothing but a dream in the past I don't I don't know if they've ever really done it people are starting to think that it it in fact is is a reality do you doubt that so certainly that's where the market is going um the market believes that because we're heading for soft Landing we will see not only the end of the hiking cycle that's done but we're also going to see aggressive Cuts next year and that will be consistent with growth not suffering in any material way so that's why the market is and I'm saying this not just on what's happened in the treasury complex but look at corporate spreads look at other indication that's where they are I think the market is absolutely correct in pricing in that the FED is done beyond that however there are significant uncertainties Joe um and I think that the what's priced in right now for cuts next year is probably too aggressive right so but but they may we may not see another hike we should not see another hike I I put it stronger we should not see another hike um the FED should at this point wait to see what the lagged effects are of what it's done and also importantly we need to understand better two things that we don't have a handle on what is the new neutral level of interest rate and what are the disinflationary Dynamics in the service sector there's big uncertainties about both these issues uncertainties that the markets has brushed aside but I think the FED is aware of those uncertainties the interest rate environment and the absolute price levels are still not great for consumers uh Mohammad how long can we count on I mean we may be seeing a little softness but still hanging in there what about 2024 so it depends what you're consuming um the journal has a nice piece today that shows you that the most popular gifts that we tend to give at Christmas time that prices are actually lower than they were a year ago so there's a small segment of the goods sector that is not has not just had this inflation it has had negative inflation that's the good news but the service sector as TR traveling for Thanksgiving us doing all the other stuff we like to do eating out Etc that's still subject to high inflation and just shows you the Dynamics are very different between the good sector and the service sector I just well I was going to ask you whether I should still send you a a Zach Wilson uh Jersey uh I think I can get those uh fairly cheap um muhamad yeah Joe I I don't know what to say I mean I don't know what to say well well he he was benched so so that's that should be a message to him but what I worry about most Joe if you want to go to what the Jets is that our incredible defense is going to start y being really fragile because they can't stay on the field that long we need our offense to produce I I immediately when they put the the uh when they replaced him he was getting rid of the ball much more quickly that is that's Zach's problem I'm I'm telling you that's his that's his problem he's like I don't know it's like throw it or or do something right isn't that it isn't that the problem it's like he's worried about uh anyway but but so Muhammad next year but before we leave that I don't want to leave people with that impression because then they will play they will blame the offensive line I think he just has to come up the learning curve of getting a better sense of who's open who's not open and it's there's nothing wrong with throwing it away um most of our mistakes come from the fact that he doesn't throw it away I mean people over in the UK where you're Scot you're going to say why aren't you talking about round ball uh football they probably you're probably making people mad Muhammad how about corporate earnings uh next year in in this weird uh environment that that you described we're counting on a a gain in in the the levels of valuation we see right now imply what type of earnings I would say at least 10 12% for next year will we get it I don't think we'll get it on average I think we will get it for a few in fact the big theme for next year is going to be a lot more dispersion even more than what we've seen this year um and we're going to be talking about a handful of stocks that are having a big influence on the averages but that it's going to be a handful this is not going to be an environment of lifting all boats it's only going to lift the boats that have the following characteristics um they are cash which balance sheet strong because I don't think interest rates are coming down as fast as the markets assume second they are riding a massive secular wave and third they have good management and if you apply those criteria you really end up with quite a small set of names going forward
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