저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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결론: 금리 하락 전환으로 일반 주식 종목 선별 장세가 돌아왔고, 다음 주는 소매주 반등과 엔비디아 실적이 관건이다. 시장 흐름: 장기금리가 고점에서 물러서며 메가7 편중 장세가 약해지고 개별 종목 장세가 부상. 이번 주 지수는 횡보 수준(다우 소폭 상승, 나스닥 강세 설명). 다음 주 실적 일정: 화요일 대규모 실적 발표 주간이며 소매주(베스트바이, 버링턴, 딕스스포팅굿즈, 콜스, 로우스 등)에 관심. 베스트바이: 배당수익률 5% 이상, 경영진 양호, 저평가로 보며 매수 관점. 버링턴·TJX·로스: TJX는 보수적 가이던스 후 하락 시 매수 입장 유지, 로스는 상승. 버링턴은 방향 불확실. 엔비디아: 실적 전 매수는 부담, 그러나 AI 반도체 왕좌로 보유 추천(트레이딩 아닌 보유). 가이던스 기대치 높아 셋업이 좋지 않다고 판단. HP: PC 교체 수요 기대는 있으나 확신은 낮음. 노드스트롬: 서비스 비용 부담으로 합병 외 해법 부족 시사. 딜: 농기계 디어(Deere)는 곡물 가격 붕괴로 하락 사이클, 보유 권고. 기타 발언: 인프라 투자 기대(잭obs 솔루션), 알리바바 실적 부진, 중국 주식 비선호, 석유(파이오니어) 수익 실현 후 큐라 편입 권고. 리스크: 소매주 반등 지속 여부, 엔비디아 실적 기대치 과열, 중국 규제 및 지정학 이슈.
다듬은 글
r Am educate teacher hing's changed the market is for lack of a more poetic term better the cynic and the naysayers they've been stunned at least momentarily it's playing old ordinary stock picking making a comeback long ignored household names are emerging from the shadow of the Magnificent 7 and their stocks are making you money again after a long Hiatus that's the story today even the broader average did next to nothing down creeping up two points just be advaning .3% NASDAQ inching up 8% how this happen this C change interest rates that's how as long as longer term bond yields were going up and we knew they were going to keep going up you had to stick with companies that exceptional growth no matter what interest rates did meaning usually Tech and drugs somehow perhaps because the pharmaceutical industry is so stultified the drug companies failed to deliver that left Tech as the loan standard Bearer bolstered by the enterprise software play and yes indeed the mag 7 but now that long rates have pulled back to atically from their highs we're in a different world one that is actually more hospitable to the rest of the stock market some could say a little less hospitable to to mag se but that may be because of some changes uh at a company called Microsoft I'll leave that to the people who know more about what exactly happened there because my thing is this and you yeah I think the bull is finally out of the mag s ring and there's no better test case than what's will happen next week a truncated week of Thanksgiving when a whole host potential uh such potential touchdowns and way just I I'm sorry I had to do this I used to when I started this show like 47 years ago put my hand in and and draw it but now they've replaced that with an actual turkey I think my hand does a better turkey than anything else there okay today City Group upgraded Zoom video from Sela hold Zoom reports Monday night I wonder if I can finally break out of the seemly Endless postco Funk that it's been it won't be easy given out Microsoft's using it used installed base of Windows computers to push people to switch to their own video conference platform whether like it or not does that thing pop up all the time for you it does for me I can't turn it off anything it shows an uptick in some of zoom's adjacencies could ignite the stock Tuesday is look at this it's insane we're getting a day lus of earnings especially retail earnings as though as though the CEOs of these companies are maybe trying to give me a pre-thanksgiving heart attack let's go through them in the morning we start with Best Buy now here's one of those companies that have people have written off because like Zoom it has a CO hangover during the pandemic we seem to have bought everything we needed to set up a home office and that's not something you need to set up regularly once you done it we don't need more appliances either judging by those dismal Whirlpool numbers that we got a couple weeks ago again though this week Gap and RW stores and Macy's all reported upside surprises and if you own their stocks ahead of time will you made out like a Bandon so let's think Best Buy over 5% yield very good management could also surprise the upside actually doesn't it seem almost logical next Burlington stores an offprice gem is a rough one to gain this week their key Rivals TJX and raw stores both reported TJX gave you stunningly good results but a light forecast while Ross gave you good results in good forecast we own TJX for the chapel trust and so we knew it had a habit of of issuing incredibly conservative guidance and then knocking it down and that's exactly what happened history says you have to buy that sell off and that's exactly what we're doing and I hope you're doing Ross just went straight up unfortunately we don't know which Pike Burlington's going to take maybe just it's easier to just keep buying TJX that's what we pretty much said at the at our Wednesday monthly Club what else have investors been spoiled by the success of ABI and Fitch this turn around was multiple years in the making so I think swirly jump sh Dick Sporting Goods has been tricky so I'm not going to try to game it I only say that like Best Buy dick sportting Goods seems Dirt Cheap to me Cole's reports too and there was a time when we thought something could happen to move this thing higher these days though we just want something less than a disaster that said do you know what I think CEO Tom Kingsbury did a fabulous job back when he was running Burlington stores before he took the Cole's job to me the risk War here says buy but but the stock did have a big move today in sympathy with the big move in gap finally remember when Home Depot was being panned widely and I told you the fact is it had a pulse any pulse was a good sign and then it soared I bet the same goes for Lowe's which has a terrific do-it-yourself business we got housing start numbers today and they were a little stronger than expected you know that doesn't hurt for the stock either uh one more reason why I like the stock of lows down here next where's that where is that elusive infrastructure money remember the trillion dollar package was going to Spur building un likee anything we've ever seen in this country since great question well maybe Jacob Solutions can tell us it's a terrific operator with a huge engineering construction business so if anybody would know it's these guys Tuesday morning we also from Buu the big Chinese search engine at one point all these Chinese internet socks were on fire back then Buu was the Chinese Google and it tracked with Alibaba the Chinese Amazon but this week Alibaba imploded meaning it reported a just okay quarter and then gave up when his Cloud spin-off while ging about not being able to get the state-of-the-art American semic duckers I have to wonder if ba is in the same boat or rut remember I do not like the Chinese stock market or Chinese stocks that list over here and more on that Dreadful group later Tuesday night features perhaps the most anticipated earnings report of the quarter from Kramer fave Nvidia I don't like buying the stock ahead of the quarter although it rewarded you for doing that last time I have reservations about betting on the results though because the stock is now quite has had quite the run in anticipation of another monsterized guide up like he gave you last time that is not a good setup still I reiterate that you should own Nvidia don't trade it because it Remains the king of AI semiconductors the out performance here has been staggering but so is the product you know hey by the way I'm tired of hearing about other companies that have some knockoff envidia chips waiting in the wings for them forget the knockoff show me the money I keep thinking the personal computer stocks will have their day in the sun like they used to remember though people bought a huge amount of tech Hardware during the pandemic and since then the industry hasn't come up with anything impressive enough to make you want to upgrade so can HP tell us a different story about ports maybe they got something good on in the hopper I sure hope so because there's no getting around the fact that we need new PCS packed with kinds of artificial intelligence that that we keep hearing about if HP stock wants to go higher they sure aren't making them now next can Nordstrom ever break out of its Funk the department store chain always known for its service now recognizes the cost of providing that service can be very darn high and not as lucrative as it used to be oh and if you need help finding something you like you ever heard of Amazon they got this thing called inferencing and they know know better than you they know better than any salesperson what you might want I can't think of a way to save this chain without a merger say without maybe I don't know another hurting company finally on Wednesday we hear from a company that's was a consistent winner for years but has done nothing for you of late and that is deer that's because like so many other Commodities the price of grain has collapsed Farmers tend not to buy new equipment if the current Harvest doesn't produce Bountiful profits I've been telling people that deer's a good enough company to hold on through the down a cycle that strategy going to be sorely tested when Jer tells us about this quarter here's the bottom line next week is historically a pretty positive time but I'm cognizant that we've had a big run here however if we get a continuation of the rotation into beating down retailers along with a huge gu up by Nvidia I don't know maybe everything will work during NLB shortened week Goble Terry in Ohio Terry booi Daddy this is your longtime fan and veryy happy Club member Terry in Ohio thank you Terry I hope you liked our club meeting on Wednesday Jeff shine he's got that new name I like so much it's from your area you know that oh love it love it love it hey Jim yeah I really appreciate everything you've tried to teach me about investing but that still didn't stop me from making a bonehead mistake with one of my largest Holdings and I'm hoping Professor Kramer can help me fix my trade basically I have tenure I can say anything I want that's what they do at colleges right if you have tenure you can do it even if you're bad but I try to be good so let's go to work okay like you I was disappointed that Exxon didn't offer a better price in the buyout and when you sold the entire Club holding I only let go of a quarter of my shares hoping for a better price I have a much smaller position in ctera and was wondering what you would recommend I do with Pioneer now that it's well below great question ter and thank you for those kind words what I would say is that oil seems to be bouncing from the $70 level 72 uh I would say yeah maybe it bounces to maybe 75 77 and when that happens I think you'll probably be able to get I don't know 240 242 for Pioneer I want you to sell it and I want you to put the money in Cura that's the plan but we did make money in Pioneer so let's not uh fret too much let's fret the ones where we lose the money in I'm cognizant that we've had a big run here people however if this rotation had beaten down retailers continues we could have another very strong week hey by the way you get spared on Thursday oh man m tonight the S&P 500 may be higher this week but out of the 500 names the index do you know that only 14 have outperformed the Benchmark every year for the past 5 years I'm going to run down the list of names I find it very revealing I love to do these kinds of screens then it was a big week for us China relations as tension seemingly thaw hey what could it mean for China IPOs I'm giving you my take you may not like it plus this week we hosted our monthly meeting for CNBC investing Club subscribers and we could like like T and we couldn't get couldn't get to all the amazing questions so we decided to keep the momentum going with another round tonight you do not want to miss it
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