저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 이번 실적시즌은 실제로 나쁘지 않았으며, 시장의 부정적 해석은 금리 우려와 비만치료제 우려에 과도하게 눌린 것이라는 주장. 전체 실적: S&P500 실적시즌이 약 90% 진행된 시점에서 2022년 2분기 기록을 넘는 수준으로 예상보다 양호하다고 주장. 빅테크(매그니피센트7): 마이크로소프트는 실적 상향(beat and raise), 아마존은 비용 절감 발표 후 주가 하락했으나 이후 회복. 알파벳은 양호했지만 구글 클라우드 설명이 부족했다고 지적. 애플은 중국 정부 아이폰 규제 뉴스가 틀렸고 서비스 매출이 호조였다고 평가. 테슬라: 실적은 부진했으나 주가는 당월 18% 상승. 반도체: AMD와 인텔 실적이 매우 좋았다고 평가. 산업재: 항공우주 실적 강함, 보잉도 양호. 헬스케어: 보험사와 의료주 실적은 훌륭했으나 비만치료제 우려로 주가가 눌림. 필수소비재·외식: 캠벨수프 외에는 대체로 괜찮았으나 비만치료제 우려로 타격. 코로나 관련 기업(의료기기, 백신 등)은 부진. 내구재·주택: 화이트풀은 매출 감소에도 금리 하락 기대로 상승. homebuilder(레나, PulteGroup, D.R. Horton 등)는 실적 추정치 상회, 장기금리 하락으로 크게 상승. 금융: 모건스탠리 제외 대부분 상회. 에너지: 엑손·셰브론 외 대부분 상회, 파이프라인·시추 기업도 양호. 유틸리티: 실적 양호, 당일 해당 연도 최고 세션 기록. 리스크: 금리 상승 및 비만치료제 관련 우려가 주가 하락 요인. 오늘 금리 하락으로 일부 해소될 것이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
even after today I keep hearing how we've seen a real slowdown this earning season yet other than big ticket discretionary items I certainly didn't see it in fact aside from whirpool and then Drug Company fizer I've been very impressed with pretty much every company has reported so far it's almost as though all these earnings commentary it's coming from a parallel universe one that's really much worse in reality and look I'm not just going by gut feeling according to data from eleg the S&P 500 earning season so far and we've about 90% through it has surprisingly surpassed the previous record set in the second quarter of 2022 don't believe it I think your place look at immediately order because it shows you how long the commentators have been and maybe how today's rally makes a ton of sense first let's take six of The Magnificent Seven and we've heard that we've heard from so far we got one solid beaten raise from Microsoft hey don't forget this is a$ 2.7 trillion company that's a beaten raise Amazon gave us dramatic series of Cost Cuts with new initiatives to extend their sales slow down down including in their big cloud business that mattered while the stock Swoon immediately in response that's larger because the backdrop was so Grim since then Amazon's more than made up for the losses I'd argue that alphabet had a good quarter but management did a very poor job of explaining on the conference call that's really about it if they' given us a good explanation for what would wrong with Google Cloud I think people would have said the stocks are Roar as for Apple I do don't understand how its quarter was interpreted as a Miss remember this quarter kicked off with a monster story about how China plan to crack down on government employees who use iPhones and almost everybody's a government employer there some way or another but given that Apple took Market CH in China that that story was just wrong and look there were only nine shopping days during the quarter where you could buy an iPhone 15 things should look better in the current quarter many analysts commented on weak sales for iPads wearables and Macs but did they bother to focus on the booming service Revenue stream not at all Apple's typically followed by Hardware people they don't appreciate the value of service side maybe that's why so many people told you to trade it s don't own it sure Tesla missed but you have to ask yourself why is the stock coming back if the quarter was so bad Tesla is now up 18% so far this month meanwhile Beyond The Magnificent 7 we've had remarkable quarters from both AMD and Intel very good news for little semispace what more could you ask how about the Industrials I saw the fewest misses in ages Aerospace incredibly strong G Best in Show boing was obviously good people yawned Healthcare was a huge bright spot when it comes to numbers as the insurers and many of the medical stocks put up terrific terrific reports but they were totally blunted by concerns about this new class of weight loss drug shrinking their end markets same thing with the food companies they deliver for the most part other than Campbell Soup so did the restaurant stocks but then again these weight loss drug problems hurt their stocks only Chipotle seemed to transcend the negativity what else didn't deliver any company that had a ton of sales for coid that includes medical machines drugs vaccine plays they got trash what can you expect Big Ticket items did get hurt but they're still in The post-pandemic Hangover that's why I singled out whirpool at the top of this piece for a quarter brift of sales of course with rates going lower even whirpool can rally and it did despite the dramatic uptake in mortgage rates during the quarter I'd argue that the home builders had the best estimate beats of any industry think Lenard py DR Horton and to Brothers nothing short of phenomenal and with long-term interest rates coming down today they finally got their due in some of the most gigantic moves I have ever seen in their stocks or in any stocks except for takeovers how about the banks all right with the exception of Morgan Stanley they actually did meet or beat the numbers J Morgan B Fargo back of am all very good nobody cared at the time but with long rates coming down oh I think they'll start who disappointed for real Exxon and Chevron but the rest of the oils actually did outperform so did the pipeline plays in the Drillers utilities good numbers crushed by the bomb Market until today when the utilities had their best session the year my conclusion when you look at all of the groups this was not a disappointing earning season at all we saw lots of good numbers but many stocks were crushed by interest rate worries or weight loss drug concerns and one of those problems is suddenly going away today and the other is so overblown that it makes me laugh these days that it frightened so many good people out of some terrific stocks I probably try to find it just for you right here on May oh
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