저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 인플레이션 억제 의지는 말뿐이며, 결국 경기를 해치는 정책을 피하려 해 인플레이션이 더 악화되고 미국 주식은 하락할 것이라는 비관론. 연준 정책 비판: 파월은 '무엇이든 하겠다'고 했지만 동시에 '경기를 해치지 않게 신중히 하겠다'고 말해 두 발언은 양립 불가능하다는 주장. 연준은 결국 경기 침체 대신 인플레이션을 선택할 것이며, 금리 인상과 대차대조표 축소는 경기 붕괴를 부를 것이라고 주장. 재정 문제: 부채 30조 달러 상황에서 금리 인상이 정부 이자비용을 키우는데도 연준은 지속불가능한 재정경로를 고려하지 않는다고 비판. 재정 문제 해결은 경기가 강할 때로 미뤄지지만, 실제로는 저금리 버블에 의존. 정부·언론 책임: 바이든 정부와 언론은 인플레이션 원인을 코로나와 푸틴에 돌리며 연준과 정부 지출 책임을 회피한다고 주장. 소비자 인플레이션 기대치는 5.4%보다 훨씬 높을 것이라고 예상. 석유 정책: 석유 기업의 공급 부족은 바이든 정부의 규제·세금(초과이익세) 때문이며, 이것이 투자를 위축시킨다고 주장. 투자 전망: 금은 펀더멘털이 매우 좋아 상승 여력이 크다고 봄. 미국 주식은 역사적 고평가, 금리 인상 사이클 초입, 경기침체 임박으로 펀더멘털이 최악이라 하락 위험이 크다고 판단. 이에 해외 주식 비중을 늘렸다고 언급. 리스크: 미국 주식 하락은 투자자들이 아직 약세 요인을 충분히 반영하지 못했기 때문에 향후 수주~수개월 내 가격을 누를 것이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
the only way they're going to bring down inflation and restore price stability is to crash the economy one of the Senators asked Powell if he was willing to do whatever it takes like Paul volcker to bring down inflation will you do whatever it takes and pal basically said yes we will do whatever it takes which obviously is not the case because that the Fed was willing to do whatever it takes it would have already done it there is no reason to have allowed inflation to get this bad in fact if the investors believe that Powell was going to do whatever it takes to bring down inflation the stock market would have crashed the bond market would have crashed in fact one of the questions that Powell got was how he was going to fight inflation without harming the economy or causing a recession now the real answer would have been I can't if we're going to fight inflation we're going to have a recession there's just no way around it we're going to have to raise interest rates substantially we're gonna have to cut down on the growth of the money supplied and the entire recovery that we had the economy was built on cheap money so we're going to take that cheap money away which we need to do then the entire economy that was built on top of it is going to come collapsing down so no we can't fight inflation without hurting the economy right we had a horrible recession under Paul volcker when interest rates went up but what Powell told Congress was hey don't worry I'm going to raise interest rates we're going to shrink the balance sheet but we're going to do it with care we're going to be careful and make sure that nothing that we're doing harms the economy well that is impossible so the only way that Powell can raise interest rates with care and shrink the balance sheet with care without harming the economy is to immediately stop the rate hikes or maybe reverse them as soon as that harm is obvious that's the only way to do it because you can't do it with care it is impossible but nobody in Congress or nobody at the Federal Reserve wants to tell the truth yes there is some medicine that we've got to swallow but it tastes bad they all want to pretend that oh it's going to taste great yes we're going to get rid of inflation but don't worry this medicine is delicious it's not and the only way we're not going to taste This Bitter medicine is if we don't swallow it and that's basically what Powell was saying in fact Pal's assurance that when it comes to raising interest rate and shrinking the balance sheet that the FED will exercise care to make sure that neither of those policies hurts the economy that is completely inconsistent with his pledge to do whatever it takes to fight inflation that he's willing to do it Paul volcker style because those two statements are mutually exclusive because if you are committed to doing whatever it takes to fight inflation then you can't exercise care not to hurt the economy because doing whatever it takes means you're willing to hurt the economy you're willing to crash the financial markets if that's what's required to find inflation which means one of those two statements has to be a lie because they can't both be true and as far as I'm concerned my money's on the fact that his commitment to doing whatever it takes that's what's not true because I think the minute Powell senses that what he's doing is really hurting the economy or the financial markets then he will be careful he will reverse course and allow inflation to get worse because the FED is going to have to pick its poison and I already know the poison it's going to pick another one of the ridiculous statements that Powell made had to do with the unsustainable fiscal path that the US is on because one of the Senators asked how If the Fed considered the impact of higher interest rates on the federal budget given the fact that we have 30 trillion in debt when he raises interest rates the cost to the government of servicing that debt is going to go up right so the senator asked how If the Fed factored that into its policy and Powell said no Powell said they don't even think about the unsustainable fiscal path they don't even measure it they don't model it as if this is happening in a vacuum which has to be a lie I mean how can the FED possibly not consider the impact of rising interest rates on the U.S government when it's obviously the elephant in the room they're going to think about that elephant but not only did Powell say that the FED never even considers it it doesn't even matter about it if you combine that with the commitment to do whatever it takes to fight inflation and if they're not even going to consider the impact of that fight on the federal government which is the world's biggest debtor and which has the most to lose if interest rates go way up to fight inflation but not only did Powell make that ridiculous statement he also followed up by saying yes we're on an unsustainable fiscal path but now is not the time to do something about it he said the time to do something about the fiscal problems is when the economy is strong but of course earlier during his testimony you always said the economy was strong he said it's very strong well which is it now is not the time to deal with our physical problems because we have to wait until we have a strong economy when according to Powell the economy is not only strong right now it's very strong if the economy is very strong then why don't we deal with the fiscal problems now the truth is we can never deal with the physical problems because then the economy won't be strong because it's a bubble and it's only a bubble because we're not dealing with the physical problems in fact it's making the fiscal problem bigger is blowing more air into the bubble it's going deeper and deeper into death that is the reason that we have this phony recovery and in fact when they were talking about how strong the economy was under Trump and Trump was talking about we have the strongest economy in the history of the world you didn't hear Powell telling Congress at that time hey we've got a strong economy let's start addressing the fiscal imbalances and the unsustainable path that we're on no and in fact pal stated on multiple occasions that the reason we don't have to worry 3 in the short run about the unsustainable path Iran is because interest rates are really low well now he's saying that he might raise interest rates dramatically like Paul volcker if that's what it takes to fight inflation get ignoring the impact that would have on the unsustainable fiscal position of the U.S government when he's already acknowledged that the only reason it's sustainable now is because we have low interest rates and he may have to remove those low interest rates to fight inflation one of the biggest problems that the FED is looking at is how to shrink this massive balance sheet and you're telling me they haven't spent any time talking about how to do it they're just procrastinated all that I mean maybe one of the guys at the fomc said hey why don't we try to figure out a plan for how we're going to shrink this balance sheet and some establish this way you know why do that now let's just hold off and you know we got plenty of time to come up with a plan the reason that they have to lie is because there is no plan because it's impossible there is no way to do this there is no timetable that they can come up with no magic bullet that's going to allow the Federal Reserve to shrink this massive balance sheet without collapsing the whole economy and so that's why they don't do it in fact probably it's the same reason that they don't want to model how higher interest rates would impact the US government because if they stick that into their model and then run some simulation it's going to show a massive economic implosion so rather than model something that they know is a disaster they're just going to ignore it so they don't have to face reality the fed's goal is to have two percent average obviously the FED has already tossed that out the window the FED is never going to try to average down the massive inflation that we have right now the FED is going to ignore this incredible increase in the cost of living and simply focus on making sure that that additional increase in the cost of living is just two percent per year without any regard to what's happened in the past and without trying to average down to high inflation the way the FED claimed it was trying to average up to low inflation of course a lot of the congressmen Senators they wanted to blame the inflation too on the pandemic right as if Government had absolutely nothing to do with it we could have approached the pandemic very different we didn't have to run these huge deficits we didn't have to print all this money we chose to do that just because the pandemic was the excuse we made the choice and we chose inflation nobody wants to level with the American public and tell them yes we're having to pay this price but this is the cost of all the stimulus you gotta check you didn't have a job we sent you money this is the consequence there's no free lunch nobody wants to admit that now of course consumers are right to expect more inflation but they're wrong to expect it to only be 5.4 percent it's actually going to be much higher than that so if consumers are this Gloomy based on the expectation that the inflation problem will get better imagine how much gloomier they would be right now if they actually realized that this bad problem is about to get a lot worse so I think there's a lot of room for this index to plunge further as reality rears its head and consumers realize what's in store for them because they're still getting a lot of propaganda from the government and the media that the worst is behind us and of course all the inflation is simply a function of Russia and Putin in fact the Biden Administration and all of the minions are now talking about Putin's price hikes like every time a price goes up it's all about Putin the Putin price hikes as if the U.S has absolutely nothing to do with it we're taking the Federal Reserve completely off the hook first it was covid and now it's Putin in Russia in fact it's still coveted whenever they talk about why prices are going up they blame the pandemic they blame Russia and put or they blame the greedy corporations in fact Biden is specifically calling out the oil companies the oil companies are responsible for Rising oil prices because they're just not pumping enough oil obviously if they could pump more oil at these higher prices wouldn't they do it I mean don't they want to earn more money don't they want to sell as much expensive oil as they possibly can the idea that they're just sitting on all this oil and not selling it is nonsense one of the reasons that oil companies aren't pumping more oil is because of the hostility that the Biden Administration has against the oil industry people are afraid to invest in oil and gas they're worried about more regulations they're worried about more Taxation and that's one of the reasons that I've invested more heavily in international stocks I know the US has a proclivity of doing that right as soon as the oil industry really starts to make money they slap a windfall profit tax on them meanwhile when oil is low they don't get any relief for that but the minute they start making some money they get taxed what kind of message does that send if you're telling these oil companies hey if you ever get to a situation where the oil price is really high we're going to seize your profits because we're going to claim it's a windfall well that discourages investment in Exploration and development gold has a long way to go up because the fundamentals couldn't be better unlike for the U.S stock market where they really couldn't be worse the fundamentals for gold couldn't be better that's why it should be pretty obvious that there's still a lot of downside risk in the U.S stock market I mean think about the fundamental backdrop for U.S stocks because they remain historically overvalued at a time where the FED is just beginning a rate hiking cycle but it's a long road back to normal let alone tight so we're just starting a tightening cycle yet we have record high valuations we're also on the cusp of a recession you know even if we get a quick resolution to the Russia Ukraine crisis which we probably won't but even if we do the fundamentals are still horrible and if we don't they're even worse so it's amazing that the U.S stock market hasn't already dropped by a greater degree than it has that doesn't mean it won't it just means that investors are slow to recognize these bearish factors but they are recognizing them and they will weigh down the price of U.S stocks in the weeks and months ahead foreign
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