저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자자라면 시장 하락 시에도 버텨야 한다는 결론이다. 과거 1987년 폭락과 1990년 걸프전 위기 때도 기업 실적은 견조했고, 주식은 장기적으로 머니마켓·채권을 크게 앞선다. 과거 실적 근거: 자동데이터처리(ADP) 32년, 존슨앤드존슨 30년, 에머슨일렉트릭 38년 등 두 자릿수 이익 성장 사례를 들며 우량 기업 장기 보유를 강조한다. 금융주: 케미컬·트래블러스·시티코프·패니메이·프레디맥 등은 사업이 좋아졌는데도 주가가 시장 대비 1/2~1/3 수준으로 낮아 매력적이라고 본다. 경기민감주: 철강·제지·알루미늄·화학 업종은 이제 차례가 왔다고 본다. 알루미늄 가격은 30년 저점에서 거의 두 배 올랐고, 라이너보드도 같은 흐름이 예상된다. 자동차주: 4~5배 PER로 매우 저렴하다고 평가한다. 경제 전망: 중남미(브라질)와 인도는 회복 중이고, 유럽은 대공황 이후 최악의 침체였으나 점차 회복되며 일본은 바닥을 지나는 중이라고 본다. 미국 고용은 recession 중 180만 명 감소 후 580만 명 이상 회복됐다. 주택·자동차·내구재는 부담이 적다고 평가한다. 은행 시스템: 1951년 이후 처음으로 대출보다 MBS 등 증권 투자가 많고, 자기자본비율은 45년 만에 최고라 건전하다고 본다. 유동성도 풍부하다. 구조적 관점: 대기업의 일자리 감소는 중소기업 창업(80년대 210만 개)이 상쇄했고, 최근 2.5년간 175개 기업이 상장해 1,000억 달러 이상을 조달해 R&D와 설비 투자에 쓰일 것이라 본다. 리스크: 장기 투자 중에도 시장 급락에 흔들리는 투자자가 많다는 점을 경계한다. 미국 주식시장의 단기 하락 가능성은 명시적으로 다루지 않는다.
다듬은 글
this is important whether you're investing for a four year old a 14 year old or 74 year old you have to say what am i going to do when the market goes down because i've had audiences like this larger audiences and i'll say how many people in the room are short-term investors i've never had anybody ever raise their hand i mean everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down and like in 90 i remember 1990 1990 was so much scarier than 87 87 the market just fell down and you called up companies that our business is terrific we're about to announce the stock stock buyback we're already buying back our stock business is great and we can't figure this out in 1990 you had kuwait invaded you had uh the banking system really on the ropes i mean really close you call up a company they said the business was slowing down we sent 500 000 troops to saudi and uh we're about to fight what people thought was the uh remember this was the fourth largest army in the world and they were the toughest army in the world and we're this is going to be a terrible war and we ought to sit them out remember the theory big theory there's a lot of people in this city saying we had to wait them out you know we'd still be waiting there at 120 degrees with our 500 000 people i mean i think bush made an incredibly uh brave decision but on the information he was getting to go in there and uh knock him out or would still be there but that was an ugly time and uh that was very scary and the public stood up a lot some people learned from 87 and they stood throughout that and said i'm confident about the next 5 10 15 years of this country and they hung in there so i would say if you want to buy a small growth fund or you want to buy a balanced fund that's part bonds or part stocks you put so much money in but more and every year you'll be very pleased in 10 20 30 years stocks will beat the hell out of money markets they can beat the hell out of bonds no group of you think of it every corporations mcdonald's and these great companies marriott you name it they've never got together and said geez you know we're really doing well why don't we raise the coupon in our bonds so yeah let's be those bondholders has been really loyal no you know we've been given eight percent why don't we raise it to nine you know uh but companies like automatic data processing they do payroll it's an amazing prosaic company 32 years of higher earnings 32 years of double-digit earnings growth we've had recessions we've had wars the changes in congress changes in the supreme court 32 years about burning so i mean that's what you're relying on johnson john's had 30 years about burns and these are general parts 42 years of our burnings emerson electric 38 years our burns you don't see companies like this in other parts of the world so i think uh that's what you buy when you buy a fund you're buying a bunch of good companies and the second question was when again uh just your uh stocks stocks well i think i think the financial area has been uh referred heavily in the stock market i think that's an attractive area uh stocks like chemical or travelers or citicorp or bank of boston or fleet or shawmut fannie mae freddie mac these stocks have all come down their business is terrific they've improved their balance sheets they're selling it multiples half or one-third lower than the general market i think the signals i think we have a chance for the cyclicals for the first time in a long time the uh the steels the papers the aluminums the chemicals i mean there it's their turn to come to the plate and uh i think there's going to be a good time the next we seem to have an economy recovering in latin america brazil is turning around these are facts again you hear these facts these countries are really india i've been visiting india things are really improving in india europe had the worst recession since the depression there's 18 million people out of work 18 million people out of work in western europe right now and the economy's starting to slowly turn japan is bottom so i think you're going to see a demand and commodity prices have been aluminum prices got to 30-year low now they've inga has almost doubled uh you're going to see the same thing with liner board so you're going to see a very good time for cyclical stocks and i think the auto stocks are also extremely cheap at four or five times earnings i think i think the economy my opinion from the companies i talked to in the business i look at things are not off uh trend line these are not extraordinary times housing is very affordable it's not affordable it was two years ago on a 20-year basis housing is very affordable automobiles are very affordable uh consumer durables are very affordable i think people are going to uh and we we've added as you know i still understand when people we hear the job growth we've added uh in the recession we lost 1.8 million jobs and now we've added back 5.8 million 4.5 million in the last uh 19 months so we lost 1.8 and we've added 5.8 back we're 4 million to the good tough part of it is we dropped about 600 000 manufacturing jobs and we've only brought back 100 manufacturing jobs but there are a lot more people working and i think that trend is going to continue and in the decade of the 80s i think this is key the decade of the 80s the only that's what you hear from the press that's what you hear from tv in the decade of the 80s the 500 largest companies eliminated three million jobs three million jobs but there was 2.1 million businesses started in the 1980s if they just have 10 people each that's 21 million jobs it's an incredible job machine we have in america so that's what happened in the 80s these 2.1 million businesses created all the jobs and the decade of the 90s the top 500 companies eliminate another 3 million people and all you ever hear about is company x lays off five thousand people in hartford and company y lays out five thousand people in rochester and somebody doesn't buy a sofa in scottsdale arizona so reading their newspaper about a layoff in the northeast i mean that's the nature these companies have to do it to stay stay competitive that's our business and we've had in the last two and a half years been a phenomenal uh this has been a great thing for our country we've had 1750 companies come public they've raised over 100 billion dollars there's only 2 500 companies on your side 1750 companies is a lot they're going to put this into research and development they're going to put it into into more plant more efficient equipment this is a fantastic thing for these companies so i think the situation is excellent the banking system for the first time since the early 50s a lot of people follow the bank industry the banking system today has more investments on the left side of the balance sheet you talk about the government saying on the mortgage-backed securities they own then they have loans first time ever since 1951 and they're only making 50 20 30 basis points they'd love to make loans bank system has the highest equity to assets in 45 years the banking system is ready to go there's lots of liquidity around i don't know why so people are so depressed about people getting hired all the time i can't quite figure this out that i don't know i've never met a banker anybody in business that likes recessions i've yet to find these people you know so i think i think it's very good the economy is doing well
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