Ray Dalio: How the average investor creates a balanced portfolio

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결론: 미래를 알 수 없다는 전제 아래 금액이 아닌 위험 기준으로 균형 잡힌 '올웨더' 포트폴리오를 구성해야 한다. 핵심 주장: 평균 투자자는 시장 예측 게임(포커 테이블)에서 이기기 어려우므로 예측에 베팅하지 말아야 한다. 위험 균형: 주식의 변동성은 채권의 두 배 이상이므로, 투자 금액이 아니라 위험을 기준으로 자산을 배분해야 한다. 대부분의 투자자는 금액 기준으로 균형을 맞추다 위험이 한쪽으로 쏠린다. 경제 환경 4분면: 자산 가격을 움직이는 핵심은 성장과 인플레이션이며, 기대치와의 차이(서프라이즈)가 자산 가격을 움직인다. 성장이 예상보다 빠르면 주식 상승, 느리면 하락. 인플레이션이 예상보다 높으면 채권 하락, 낮으면 채권 상승. 파멸적 자산: 세대마다 부를 파괴하는 자산군이 나타나며, 어떤 자산이 그럴지 알 수 없으므로 특정 자산에 집중하지 않는 분산이 최선이다. 금·채권 활용: 금은 현금처럼 일정 비율을 수동적으로 보유하고, 장기채는 주식과 상쇄 효과를 내도록 일정 비중 보유한다. 현금은 수익성이 낮아 과다 보유하지 않는다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 리스크 패리티 관련 상세 내용은 자사 웹사이트 참고를 권유.

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01. i think that the first thing is you should have a strategic asset allocation mix that assumes that you don't know what the future is going to hold and i think most people should because in other words when i let's say i play the game of betting against others so it's like going on the poker table and if i'm smarter than the other and i know how difficult that game is so very few winners and and and you know like i if i'm not engrossed in it and we're not engrossed in it i'd be worrying about it and i i do worry about it when i am engrossed in it so the average investor and most people should not be playing that game they're going to lose at the poker table and so they so what that means is they should have a properly balanced portfolio now the most important thing about that is that um they balance they make a mistake of balancing in terms of dollars invested and with a bias to what's done well in the past and they don't realize that risk they should balance it in terms of risk let's say stocks have twice the volatility of bonds more than twice the volatility of bonds so when they own a portfolio and structure a portfolio that way they tend to have concentrated risks and i think that what they need to do is i i i would recommend read parrot read how to on the subject of risk parity read on our website we have an explanation of how to balance risk but the key thing is that there are basically four economic environments there are two main drivers of asset class returns inflation and growth assets all price based on an uh you could look at the pricing of assets and calculate what the discounted growth rate is and what the discounted inflation rate is and what causes assets to move is surprises to that so when growth is faster than expected stocks go up when growth is slower than expected stocks go down when inflation is higher than expected bonds go down when inflation is lower than expected bonds go up okay so not been faster than expected today and equities have gone up what i'm trying to say is that for the average investor what i would encourage them to do is to understand there's inflation and growth it can go higher and lower and to have four different portfolios essentially that make up your total portfolio that gets you balanced because in every generation there is some period of time that will ruin there is a ruinous asset class and will destroy wealth and you don't know which one that's going to be in your lifetime so the best thing you can do is to have a portfolio that is immune that is well diversified that is what we call an all-weather portfolio that means that you don't have a concentration in that asset class that's going to annihilate you and you don't know which one it is okay that portfolio look like today no well i'm saying it should be based on the notion that you don't know which one it is and therefore when you say which should it be today it should be balanced today like it is in the future and it should have that mix of assets and then how you get into it is a whole conversation i would say you know on our website you can read about what we call a weather portfolio or risk parity but you need to achieve balance that's why when you ask me something about gold a certain limited amount at least passively should be in gold just like you would hold a certain amount of cash but you don't hold too much in cash because it'll have a return you want to hold a certain amount um inequities um and then you and then you want to hold a certain amount um in in in in bonds and long-duration bonds so that it'll have an offsetting effect on the equities so that you're having a diversified portfolio that balances and if i fear that if i go deeper into the question we will be going on quite a while