Fisher Investments’ Ken Fisher Provides His Market Outlook for the Rest of 2023

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Ken Fisher는 2023년 하반기 시장을 낙관적으로 전망함. 핵심 논리는 '미드텀 미라클': 중간선거 해의 10월 1일부터 9개월(중간선거 다음해 중반까지)은 역사상 가장 일관되게 수익이 난 기간이라는 주장. 이 기간 주식이 상승한 비율은 약 92%이며, 이어지는 대통령 임기 3년차 후반기는 약 85%에서 상승했다고 설명함. 평균 분기 수익률은 미드텀 미라클 기간 약 6.5%, 이후 하반기 약 4~5%로 언급함. 3년차 대통령 임기 중 S&P500 마이너스는 1939년 이후 없었으며, 당시도 -0.9% 수준이었다고 함. 시장 심리: 투자자들의 비관·불신이 여전히 강해 강세장 지속 여지가 크다고 봄. 현재 강세장은 대형주·성장주 주도이며, 경기 성장에 대한 회의로 경기 의존 업종보다 고품질 성장주가 상대적으로 강하다고 진단함. 향후 선호 영역: 고품질 메가테크 성장주, 고품질 대형 럭셔리 소비재(주로 유럽 기업, 소형 고가 브랜드 소비재). 자동차 같은 대형 고가 제품보다 소형 하이엔드 브랜드 소비재 중심. 리스크: 경기침체 여부에 대한 지속적 의구심, 소수 대형주 주도 장세(좁은 시장 폭)가 이어질 가능성. 개별 종목 가격 목표나 구체 수치 예측은 제시되지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. thanks for joining me we're here at the middle of the year in 2023 common question is after a relatively good first half of the year in stock market what might be the back half of the year let me try to paint that in a pretty simple way if you've paid attention to my writings and my videos over the course of the last year I pound the table pretty hard on this thing that I've called a midterm Miracle which is said simply that the nine months starting October 1st of a midterm election year those three calendar quarters the one that ends here in the middle of 2023 those nine months are the most consistently profitable period in the stock market in all stock market history the effect of absolute or relative gridlock introduced into uh Congress slows down political risk aversion because pretty much things get absolute or relative gridlock and people don't become afraid that some kind of legislation might blow back on on people's late losses when they left relative sized gains and as that slowly settles in on people the market loses a fair amount of risk aversion stock price that's been working Picture Perfect Picture Perfect since October 1st uh parallel to that strong first half of 2023 in the stock market uh the reality can be extended in this way the back half of the year after a midterm miracle is also not as consistently profitable but much more profitable than the normal stock market inconsistency the normally stocks rise depending on whether you think about U.S or Global 65 70 percent of the time in the midterm Miracle period day rise historically 92 percent of History 92 percent of all those period in the back half of the third year of a president's term uh they're normally positive about 85 percent of History with slightly lower average quarterly returns than in the midterm Miracle the midterm Miracle you're getting average returns of about six and a half percent a little bit better uh the cycle but only a little bit almost picture perfect and then in the back half of the Year following that you're typically getting four to five percent return will that happen this time well you don't really get the average except for by luck but it's probably a profitable time it's probably a good time let me make this point we haven't had a negative third year of a president's term since 1939 in the S P 500 and that was only down nine tenths of one percent as America was facing the beginning of World War II the fact is there's a pretty good time it's a good time partly because people still remain skeptical I've written and talked about the pessimism disbelief and people keep coming up with yabbats to try to justify why this can't really be a bull market and it is a bull market it's acted like a bull market it's acted like a new bull market in ways a lot of people understand not all bull markets start off the same way this one has intuitively been big cap and growth lead because we're in a period where people don't really believe in the economy growing it's a low growth economy with a lot of people skeptical about growth so therefore things that are dependent on the economy aren't doing well things that can grow in a relatively stagnant economy are doing better and the higher quality they are so it's more assured that you get that growth the better still they do and that tends to concentrate and has concentrated I believe will through the balance of the year on the high quality Mega Tech growth on the high quality large luxury goods producers I'm not talking about big expensive things like luxury cars so much although that might apply a little I'm talking mostly about physically smaller high-end Big Brand luxury consumer items and that world which is mostly LED out of Europe not America America's got a little uh has been uh very strong also so that world is what's leading I think that world continues because we still have so much doubt in our culture about the economy are we going to go into recession are we not going to go into a recession what about this what about that what about the other yeah but yeah but yeah but and the result of that is that uh really high quality growth stocks what's called narrow breadth few big names leading the market continue to do so ]