저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 은행권은 건전하며 주식시장 상승세(대형 성장주 주도)는 아직 유효하다는 입장. 시장 폭(Breadth): 대형주 쏠림은 강세장 고점 부근에서 흔한 현상이지만 장기간 지속될 수 있어 과도한 우려는 불필요하다. 사잇 베어마켓 이후 대형 기술주가 반등을 주도하는 패턴이 이어지는 중이며, 신고가가 지속될 때까지는 걱정할 단계가 아니다. 은행 위기: 실제 은행위기는 없었다. SVB·퍼스트리퍼블릭은 FDIC 개입 직전 처리된 사례이고, 연준 긴급대출은 샌프란시스코·뉴욕 지구에만 급증했다. 1976년 이후 연평균 약 60곳의 은행 파산이 있었으므로 이번 사태는 특별하지 않다. 은행 시스템 재무상태는 최근 수십 년 중 가장 강하다는 평가(금리 상승으로 약간 약화된 점은 감안). 통화량(M2): 통화량 증가는 인플레이션 요인 중 하나일 뿐이며, 현재는 M2보다 대출 증가가 더 중요하다. 대출 증가율은 연초 12% 대비 둔화됐으나 여전히 견조하고 소형은행 대출도 회복 중이라 경기침체 신호로 보지 않는다. 스타일/수익곡선: 장단기 금리 역전 상태이며, 역전이 완화되는 시점에는 성장주가 가치주보다 유리하다고 본다. 성장주는 다양한 자금 조달원을 가진 반면 가치주는 은행 대출 의존도가 높기 때문이다. 채권: 장기금리는 작년 10월 고점 이후 등락하며 하락 추세이고 채권 가격은 상승했으나 주식 수익률이 더 높았다. 고정수익 자산은 부채 매칭 등 목적에 따라 가치가 있지만, 현 시점의 순수 총수익 관점에서는 매력이 크지 않다고 본다(10년물 약 3.7%).
다듬은 글
there really wasn't a banking crisis there were some banks that got into trouble we have 4 200 plus Banks literally and I'm just going to say this simply you go back to 1976 on average we have 60 bank failures a year every month I get questions sent in and then I talk about them and I always talk too long so I'm supposed to talk about these really fast I'm never able to talk about anything really fast but I'll do the best I can so the first one asks about are you concerned about disproportionate amount of money flowing into the mega cap stocks to equal weight S P 500 has significantly underperformed the overall S P 500 which is Cap weighted therefore the biggest stocks have the biggest impact could this flight to Quality be the market warning of some caution ahead that fear is a common fear and it's actually one worth paying attention to and watching I don't think it's something to overly worry about here and now let me put that into perspective the fewer stocks that lead the market up is a phrase that otherwise is thought of as the market having bad breadth a low Advanced decline ratio train being pulled by an Ever weaker engine so to speak the reality is that it is normal for that function of narrowing breath to occur as you move toward a market Peak but sometimes that goes on for a long time the other feature that I point out is we had a lot of that before we hit the 2020 and then 2022 Peaks while we got more of it after the bear Market in between the 2020 bear Market in the 2022 bear Market what got hurt the most to make a cap stocks you've probably heard me before talk about the bounce effect where the categories of stocks that get hurt the most in a bearer Market typically bounce the most early in the subsequent bull market in this case that was to make a caps led by Tech how much more does that go on I don't really know but I'll tell you what normally happens and what a wager will happen this time normally when you've had a bull market Peak leading to a bear Market and mega cap the biggest stocks had foreshadowed if you will that Peak of that prior bull market leading into a bear Market in the bounce back that continues as it has been this year where the mega caps increasingly lead the way the same names until you hit new all-time highs for a fairly sustained period of time so the bull market has Justified itself in all-time highs and we're a ways away from that yet so I wouldn't worry about it too much yet what I'd suggest you do is write me about it again after we fit that level I've listened to your comments earlier this year saying the bank system is sound can you please update your comments a lot of concern in the news media lately oh yeah the media has made much about bank failure I've talked about this in quite a few places on television in some of the videos but the fact of the matter is we have 12 Federal Reserve Districts we did have some Bank problems uh Signature Bank in New York Silicon Valley Bank and Republic Bank particularly with fears about Pac West that were never realized when I say never realized no bank failure there actually Silicon Valley Bank and and First Republic weren't technically failures the FDIC stepped in and had them uh taken over before they became failures the FDIC took control of them before they became failures they did not fail on their own but be that as it may and without wanting to get into too much detail weekly there is good reporting accurate reporting on Emergency borrowings from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts and they only went up markedly in the district of the San Francisco District where Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic were and in the New York District where signature was in the other 10 they didn't go up at all which tells you it wasn't a systemic problem those numbers are still coming out weekly it's still not a problem periodically we will reach you this cud as some little headline comes up and people revert to not learning a lesson that there really wasn't a banking crisis there were some banks that got into trouble we have 4 200 plus Banks literally and I'm just going to say this simply you go back to 1976 on average we have 60 bank failures a year the only years with no bank failures at all were 2021 and 2022.
we've had few years with fewer than four bank failures what's gone on this year wasn't particularly exciting but it was not as extraordinary as people want to think it was so the answer is yes banking system is sound based on assets of liability cash flow relative short-term uh liabilities the banking systems balance sheet is almost a stronger not quite because the rise in interest rates last year made it weaker than it was but almost stronger than it's been in the last 10 20 30 40 years don't worry about the banking system overall uh I understand you've highlighted huge M2 money supply growth as a driver of recent inflation I didn't quite say that with money supply growth turning negative now is that automatically a recessionary signal no let's just think through this let's just parse it um money supply growth is a force in inflation it's not the only Force what really is important as I've said repeatedly this year is loan growth long growth long growth lawn growth while M2 a measure of money that's been around since I was a young man actually when I was a teenager is when people first started the designation of M2 money is whatever people use to engage in transactions money and all money is something that helps lubricate or facilitate transactions so we're not bartering now today as opposed to when I was a young man and money was basically M2 which was Cash checking accounts and savings accounts that could be transferred into your checking account they write check before that M1 just cash and checking accounts this is the way people engage in transactions now there's so many near Monies do we have M3 M4 and Lord only knows what people think money is that they have that's liquid that they can transfer into something that they can buy something with on their digital app therefore I don't think it's important as it used to be what's really important is the loan growth and Loan growth continues pretty well loan growth is down a little overall from where it was at the beginning of the year when it was running 12 percent year over year but it continues pretty strongly GDP growth continues loan growth helps stimulate economic growth and in the so-called banking scares the so-called banking crisis small Bank lending uh held back for a little while as small Banks sort of went but actually has now picked up again and small banks are landing aggressively as they were before the so-called banking crisis and therefore no I don't think it's the problem that people fear any recent thoughts on leadership within the market we're now seemingly seven months into the new Bull with inflation coming down traditional yield curve should be flattening which would favor growth over value I remember in one of your books I think the only requested to count growth should outperform value as the yield curve flattens yield curve meaning the spread between long rates and short rates where short rates are above long rates rating a so-called yield curve inversion since normally short rates are below long rates um would love to read or hear your update on your thinking here well since the bottom of the bear Market in in end of September beginning of October uh growth has been leading value and in fact uh short rates have continued going up relative to Long rates a long rates have actually come down since the beginning of October and the yo curve is more inverted than before but as the yield curve would hit some point down the road where it would start to become less inverted and move toward its normal shape where long rates are above short-term interest rates you would expect to see that to continue to favor grow stocks why because growth stocks have multiple sources of financing capability whereas value stocked really quite bank financing dependent and the reality is uh if you think of it like um pigs at a food drawth you know a big food trough and they throw a bunch of slop in there for the pigs the big pigs push the little pigs out of the way to the extent that there's only so much room and so as the yield curve inverts that makes the banks pickier in their choosing on who to lend to and normally that pickiness says Let Me Lend to the ones where I have the least risk who do the ones you have the least risk the highest quality biggest companies which is typically the high quality growth stocks which is what's been leading the market since the beginning of the bull market last October with interest rates at multi-year highs is now a good opportunity to buy fixed income well let me just say fixed income is A or B I mean you're talking about short-term debt uh well that all depends on what the Central Bank does next or something about long-term debt well actually long rates peaked uh last October and have been falling irregularly since so when long rates fall the price of long-term Madrid go up excuse me the price of long-term bonds go up and in reality uh that's been good since October but if you say since October when that happened if the price of bonds gone up more plus the interest rates you get on the bond or a Stock's gone up more the answer is stocks have gone up more and normally during a time like this when you would expect long rates to fall irregularly over time it's inflation to come down you expect stocks to do better does that make fixed income a bad buy it well it depends what your purpose is the reality is there's a lot of reasons why someone might own fixed income that have nothing to do with Total return you've got liabilities coming up you want to match them against assets fixed income is great for that but is this a spectacular time for real total return on fixed income relative to other available Alternatives probably not long rates aren't that high long rates 10-year U.S government rates at three seven they're just not that Sky High so the answer is sort to the question is sort of sort of not again I always love these questions sent in to me thank you very much for sending them I look forward to answering more of them next month uh feel free to keep sending them in uh and thank you for listening to me and I hope you found this set of questions uh educational and useful thank you talk to you next month foreign foreign
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