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결론: 이 영상은 Nick Sleep의 2004년 코스트코 투자 사례를 분석하며, 코스트코를 고품질 복리형 사업으로 평가하지만 특정 종목의 가격 방향 예측이나 매매 권유는 없다. 사업모델: 코스트코는 연회비 45달러 회원제로 이익을 얻고, 상품에 약 14~15% 마진만 붙여 저가를 유지하며 규모의 경제 이익을 고객에게 환원한다는 구조가 설명된다. 사례: 청바지 대량 구매 시 원가 절감분을 마진으로 챙기지 않고 가격 인하에 쓴 일화가 소개되며, 창업자 짐 시네갈의 원칙 고수가 강조된다. 품질 지표: 2004년 기준 자본이익률 약 16%, 증분자본이익률 약 25%, 재투자율 약 223%로 제시되며 성장 여력이 길다고 평가된다. 찰리 멍거 발언: 훌륭한 기업과 문화는 적정 가격을 넘어설 수 있으나, 장기 관점의 기관투자자라면 현재 가격에도 매수할 만하다는 취지의 견해가 인용된다. 다만 매수 권유가 아니라 매도하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 문화와 해자: 코스트코의 고객 중심 문화와 규모 이익 공유가 예측 가능성을 높이고 경쟁 우위를 만든다는 점이 핵심으로 다뤄진다. 밸류에이션: 멍거는 약 12~13배 PER, 장부가 약 3배 수준에서 매수했다고 언급했고, 넥 슬립은 2004년 약 22배 PER에 매수했으나 내재가치 대비 할인된 가격이라고 보았다. 비교: 아마존 사례와 공통점(높은 자본이익률, 높은 재투자율, 긴 성장 활주로, 문화에 기반한 예측 가능성)이 정리된다. 방법론: 영상은 자본이익률·재투자율 등을 점검하는 체크리스트 방식을 소개하나, 현재 시점의 가격 방향 예측이나 종목 매매 권유는 포함되지 않는다. 리스크: 영상 자체는 과거 사례 분석이며 현재 주가 전망이나 구체적 리스크 요인은 다루지 않는다.
다듬은 글
i predict charlie's going to talk about costco go ahead charlie well costco of course is a charlie and i were on a plane recently that was hijacked with what was hijacked i'm telling about our experience on that hijacked plane when the hijackers picked us out as the two dirty capitalists that they really had to execute and but they were they were a little abashed about it they didn't really have anything against us so they said that each of us would be given one request before they shot us and they turned to charlie and they said what would you as your request charlie said i would like to give once more my speech on the virtues of costco with illustrations and the hijacker said well that sounds pretty reasonable to me and he turned to me and said and what would you like mr buffett and i said shoot me first hey guys welcome back to the channel so today i'm going to be going back in time once again and analyzing another one of nick sleep's greatest investments which was his investment in costco in the early 2000s i started this little series because i think it's really beneficial to study the best investments from guys like buffett monger and nick sleep so we can learn what they saw in these great businesses if you haven't seen the first part in the series which is on nick's investment in amazon then be sure to check that out as well so that's the topic for today's video and let's get into it alright so the first thing we should look at is costco's business model specifically how it's different from traditional retailers and nick sleep probably gives the best explanation in his letters he says costco's retail concept is as follows customers pay an annual membership fee of 45 which provides entry to the store for a year and in exchange costco operates an everyday low pricing strategy by marking up 14 on branded goods and 15 on private label with the end result being that prices are very very low so when costco marks up their merchandise by 14 this barely covers their operating costs and it leaves the company with basically no profits as shown in the table here but this is done intentionally to keep prices as low as possible the winners in this scenario are the customers you reciprocate by spending around twelve hundred dollars a year at costco nick also mentioned that by sticking to a standard 14 markup savings achieved through purchasing or scale are returned to the customers in the form of lower prices so if costco negotiate better deals with suppliers or buy stock in bulk for cheaper instead of leaving the price of their merchandise as is and raking in the extra profits they actually stick to their 14 markup strategy and reduce the prices for customers this invokes even more reciprocation from customers thus creating the magic flywheel effect of scale economics shared nick shows a really good story that illustrates this point about costco's founder jim senegal and his commitment to this business model he says costco once bought 2 million designer jeans from an exporter for an all-in price of 22 or so a pair this was 10 less and costco had sold the jeans four in the past offering the potential for a fifty percent markup and half the cost of other retailers one buyer recommended taking a higher gross margin than usual as no one would know but apparently senegal insisted on the standard markup arguing if i let you do it this time you will do it again the contract with the customer of having the lowest prices cannot be broken so that's a quick introduction to costco's business model and their founder and so far it looks like an incredible business that harnesses the power of scale economy shared so before we look any deeper at costco we need to see if costco is a high quality business by putting it through my checklist which looks at the return on capital the reinvestment rate and the return on incremental capital now when i say my checklist i just mean the spreadsheet i made all of these methods are taken from buffet monger and nick sleep and i'll explain it all in this video if you're interested okay for costco i've assumed they're looking at the company in 2004 as that's when nick was buying big blocks of stock i know we first bought costco in 2001 2002 but i used 2004 so i have a bit more data to work with because costco's annual reports only go back as far as 98.
now before i get into explaining the results it's important to remember that costco keep margins low on purpose which means their free cash flow could easily be much higher so if we look at the six-year period between 98 and 2004 costco looks like an incredibly high quality business costco's return on capital employed back in 2004 with 16 so right off the bat it was a high return business their return on incremental capital was 25 and the reinvestment rate was 223 and the runway to continue reinvesting capital at these high rates of return was very very long so long in fact that 20 years later and they're still going strong costco didn't just catch the eye of nick's sleep either charlie munger also realized how powerful costco's business was and said this about the company not long ago unfortunately i couldn't find any footage of charlie talking about costco 15 or 20 years ago so this will have to do but i feel like a lot of the points he makes about costco today would be relevant back then too i've always believed that nothing was worth an infinite price so at some even admirable place like costco could get to a price where you would say that's too high but i would argue that if i were investing money for some sovereign wealth fund or some pension fund and a 30 40 50 year time horizon i would buy costco at the current price i think it's that strong in enterprise and that admirable place i can't bring myself with my habits to pay these big prices but i never even think about selling a share of costco just because it's selling at a high price i'm not worried about i i i'm not saying i'm buying costco at this price but i'm certainly not selling any i think it's going to be a big powerful company as long as far ahead as you can see and i think it deserves that success i think it has a good culture and a good moral ethos and so i wish everything else in america is working as well as costco does when you hear charlie talk about costco it's pretty clear how much he admires the business its management team and the culture they've created under synagogue and even though synagogue isn't running to business day-to-day anymore the culture he created still remains and this is one of costco's biggest competitive advantages costco's culture has remained the same throughout its entire life cycle and i think this is one of the biggest factors behind costco's success and one of the main reasons why nick and charlie invested in the business when you read nick's letters or listen to charlie's interviews most of the time to spend talking or writing about the business is praising costco's culture and how it creates an extremely durable moat around the company nick wrote that they spend a considerable portion of their waking hours thinking about how company behavior can make the future more predictable and lower the risk of investment costco's obsession with sharing scale benefits with customers makes that company's future much more predictable and less risky than the average business that is why it's their largest holding another good one is when nick talks about meeting with jim senegal during the conversation jim suddenly stopped mid-sentence and disappeared to his filing cabinet and when he emerged he had a memo from 1967 written by saul price who was the founder of fedmar and the man who taught jim senegal everything he knew and nick actually ended up framing this memo under office wall because he liked it so much the memo goes although we're all interested in margin it must never be done at the expense of our philosophy margin must be obtained by better buying emphasis on selling the kind of goods we want to sell operating efficiencies lower markdowns and greater turnover increasing retail prices and justifying it on the basis that we're still competitive could lead to a rude awakening as it has with so many let us concentrate on how cheap we can bring things to people rather than how much traffic it will bear and when the race is over fedmark will be there and according to nick this is the best summary of scale economic share they've come across hence why he framed it on the wall nick adds that 43 years later costco is the most valuable retailer of its type in the world cultures that care about the little things all the time are very hard to create and in the opinion of jeff bezos impossible to create if not put in at the firm's genesis so even if traditional retailers like you know calls or woolies tried to copy costco's business model it wouldn't be easy for them to clone costco's culture charlie munger also had many of the same insights as nick about costco and he talks a lot about costco's culture you said this is fascinating to me that you think costco does more for civilization than the rockefeller foundation well i i do think that a really admirable business that does its job well and creates an honorable culture everybody's working hard and trying to deliver huge value to the customers that trust it with all the employees earning above average livings and liking working there and so on it's a huge achievement there's a really good article from masters invest about charlie munger and costco and it includes a quote from charlie where he says costco will continue making huge contributions to society it just has a frantic desire to serve customers a little better every year when other companies find ways to save money they turn it into profit whereas senegal passes it onto customers it's almost a religious duty he's sacrificing short-term profits for long-term success the author adds that many of the inputs that define costco's success won't be found in a spreadsheet or formula rather that have to do with the mental models that charlie always talks about things like reciprocation scarcity which is also known as availability culture incentives win-win simplicity social proof pricing power and many more and according to charlie when you have multiple mental models all moving in the same direction that reinforce and amplify each other it creates what he calls a lollapalooza effect i know this sounds a bit qualitative or subjective but charlie says that's the point investors always want a quantitative factor or a formula when analyzing businesses and they tend to underestimate things like culture or sharing scale benefits with customers when costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings i thought that was a ridiculously low value just because the competitive strength of the business was so great and it was so likely to keep doing better and better but i can't produce that to a formula for you uh i like the cheap real estate i like the competitive position i liked the way the personnel system where i i liked everything about it and i thought even though it's three times book or whatever it was then uh that it it's worth more but that's not a formula that anybody if you want a formula you should go back to graduate school i'll give you lots of formulas that won't work charlie also went ahead and answered my next question which was around valuation and going off what he said before he essentially bought costco for around 12 or 13 times earnings or around three times book roughly and for nick sleep going off when he really loaded up in 2004 he would have paid roughly 22 times earnings which isn't that expensive but it's definitely not cheap either although when nick talks about the price he paid for costco stock he believes he got a great deal and essentially bought a quality compounder for a discount to its intrinsic value so overall judging by what nick and charlie saw back then i think back in 2004 there was a very high probability that costco was going to be extremely successful and i think there's a bunch of lessons we can take from this investment and apply it to our own research if you watched my last sneak sleep video about amazon then you'll notice a lot of similarities between the costco investment and amazon investment even though they're very different companies they're both high return businesses with high reinvestment rates they both had customer obsessed managers who believe in scale economics shared they both had extremely long runways to keep compounding and are both very predictable because of their business culture amazon and costco look like obvious winners in hindsight but nick points out that if we simply look in the right places then greatness can be known in foresight so that's nick's analysis on costco and i hope you found it useful if you enjoyed the video please consider hitting the like button as it really helps the channel grow and if you watch the video all the way to the end thank you so much for watching if you're still bored i'll put another video up in the corner i think you'll find interesting so that's it for this video thank you so much for watching and i hope to see you guys back in the next one you
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