저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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하워드 막스는 1980년대 이후 40년간 금리 하락이 주식시장 상승의 핵심 동인이었다고 설명한다. 현재는 금리가 장기간 높은 수준(연방기금금리 2~4%대 중립 이상)을 유지할 가능성이 크며, 이는 저금리 시대 종료라는 '제3의 구조 변화'다. 실질금리 개념을 들어 명목금리 하락 시에도 대출자가 손실을 보지 않으려면 금리가 높게 유지되어야 한다고 본다. 이에 따라 주식 대비 신용상품(고수익채권, 레버리지론, 사모대출 등)의 상대 매력이 커지며 자금이 주식에서 신용자산으로 이동할 수 있다고 주장한다. 다만 금리 방향에 대한 미래 예측은 막스 본인의 견해이며, 시장 가격 방향을 직접 지목한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
if it's the change I think it is then what you should have in your portfolio going forward can be very different from what it has been I think it was the most important single event in the financial world in the last 50 years that there is Howard Marx famous billionaire and one of the most highly respected investors in the world over the years he's built a personal net worth of over $2 billion but beyond his incredible investing career you might also know him from his investing memos where he explains all the important events he sees unfolding in the market Marx has been writing these memos since 1990 but if you've been following along with his thoughts over the past year or so you'll know that he is currently seeing a major sea change occurring in the stock market one that will have lasting implications so make sure to stick around to the end of the video because Marx provides details on how he recommends people invest to take advantage of a once in 50-year Opportunity take a listen let's talk about two memos that you've written uh not too long ago that are fairly well known one was written last year called SE change and in SE change as I understand it and as I remember from reading the the memo you said in your lifetime in the investment World there have been three SE changes two of them occurred earlier you described what they are and now there's a third seed change and that third seed change is basically that interest rates are not coming down anytime soon and we have to to live in a higher interest rate environment for quite some time is that fair uh it's about Fair what I would say is that since 19 remember in 1980 the FED funds rate was 20 and I had a loan outstanding from A Bank at 22 and a quarter 40 years later the FED funds rate was zero and I had a loan outstanding from bank at two and a quarter so the decline of interest rates by 20 percentage points over that period was a dominant factor in the financial world I think it was the most important single event in the financial world in the last 50 years doesn't get the credit well okay was that the first C change in your investment care this well that was no that was really the second but the third uh follows on from that in in the period 09 through 13 the FED took the FED funds rate to zero to fight the global financial crisis left it there a long time and didn't have any luck getting it back up into what you might think are normal ranges so we had a low interest rate environment which made life very easy for borrowers asset owners it was easy to run a business the economy was was did well we had the longest bull market in history the longest economic recovery in history uh we had very low incidents of default and bankruptcy it was an easy world and if if you read articles about for example Silicon Valley Bank they talk about the Easy Money environment and the main point of C change is we're no longer in an easy money environment so you mean all the Geniuses of private Equity are not Geniuses we've been benefited from uh low interest rates you well you know uh there is a part in C change where I talk about the fact that uh a guy says oh we can buy this company and make 10% a year then he turns to his Capital markets person says what will it cost to get the money we can borrow at eight borrow at eight invest at 10 great we do it you buy the company but in the in the stimulated environment of low interest rates the company does better you make more than 10 your cost of money declines from 8 to 6 to 5 and you it costs you less to borrow the money and you say boy I'm a genius the US Stock Market has had a really good run for almost 40 years look at this chart the S&P 500 started at about 100 in 1980 and went up to nearly 4,800 in 2022 so if you put $11,000 in the stock market in 19 80 it would have turned into a huge $48,000 by 2022 and even more if you reinvested the dividends like a whopping $122,000 that's a lot during this time many great companies started and the average public company made more money American businesses also grew as they went Global all of this made the stock market perform really well but according to Howard Marx the main reason the stock market did so well was because interest rates went down let's check out this chart of the federal funds effective rate which is like a thermometer for interest rates in the US economy back in the early 80s interest rates were Sky High almost 20% but from 1980 to 2010 interest rates kept dropping every decade until they couldn't go any lower after the big financial crisis the FED dropped rates to to 0% and they stayed that way for a long time lower interest rates for 40 years were like a strong wind pushing the stock market let me break it down for you the price of anything you own whether it's a stock a bond or a piece of property is based on the money it will give you in the future but we bring that future money back to today using an interest rate it might sound a bit tricky but it's actually simple here's a fun way to think about it a imagine that I want to give you $11,000 as a thank you for being a part of our Channel just remember to hit that subscribe button if you haven't already because our investor Community is growing fast and we'd love to have you now back to the $11,000 there's a catch though you won't get it today you'll get it exactly 10 years from now we make it official with a contract let's call it contract a contract a says you'll get $1,000 in 10 years so here's the question since you're not getting the money for 10 years what's it worth to you right now in other words if someone wanted to buy contract a from you today what would be a fair price think about this because it's what Howard Marx is talking about remember when I said the value of any asset depends on the money it will bring you brought back to today using an interest rate that's the key the value of contract a depends a lot on today's interest rates we have to dis discount that $1,000 back to today's dollars because money in the future isn't as valuable as money today this idea is called the time value of money let's see how this works let's see what happens to contract A's value when we change the interest rate when the interest rate is 20% it's worth $162 but as we lower the rate to 15% it goes up to $247 if we drop it to 10% % it shoots up to $386 now let's be really bold and go down to 7% now it's worth $58 and if we go super low to 2% it skyrockets to a whopping $820 notice how contract A's value started at $162 and climbed to $820 just because the interest rate went down this is what Howard Marx was talking about when he said that falling interest rates have been been a big help to stocks now think about this contract a is like a stock it's a piece of paper that says you'll get money in the future similarly when you own a stock you own a piece of a company and you have a legal right to a share of the money that company makes in the future what happens to the stock market in the future depends a lot on what happens with interest rates here's what Howard Mark said about that all right so um let me make sure I understand uh your view is the interest rates have come up and they fairly high right now um but the conventional wisdom in Washington which is not always right in fact it's wrong more than it's right is that the FED probably next year will begin to lower interest rates and If the Fed does begin to lower interest rates because inflation's getting down to 2% their target you don't think interest rates will come down and we'll go back through another 20 years of low interest rates why do you think that we're going to keep interest rates Rel relatively High I think that what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four not between zero and two the FED funds rate and uh you know between zero and two is uh an emergency measure and you know rates were the FED funds rate was Zero much of the probably the majority of the time in the 09 to 21 period and that's inappropriate it's it it it it stimulates you you can't live on a shot of adrenaline every morning for 13 years and it it does uh uh subsidize borrowers and penalize lenders and Savers um and I would like to see a Fed get to a neutral position which is neither stimulative nor restrictive and I I and I I described that as two to four if inflation's too then the FED funds rate should be higher than that so that there's a positive real fed funds rate earlier in this video we talked about how higher interest rates are supposed to make stock prices go down but as it often happens real life can be more complicated than theory in the past year and a half or so interest rates have gone up faster than they have in a very long time at the start of 2020 the federal funds rate was about 0% and in less than 2 years it's gone up to over 5% with interest rates going up so much much you might expect stock prices to drop a lot right well that hasn't really happened the US Stock Market is only down about 10% from its highest point this is because many people think these higher interest rates won't last they believe that as inflation goes down and the economy slows the Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates back to the really low levels we've seen in the past that's why the stock market hasn't reacted very negatively to the big increase in interest rates but Howard marks has a different view to get why you need to understand something called real rates in simple terms real interest rates take into account the effect of inflation here's a quick way to figure it out imagine that the current interest rate is 5% we call this the nominal interest rate kind of like the interest rate before we think about inflation and let's say inflation is 4% to find the real interest rate you subtract inflation from the nominal rate so in this case you'd get a real interest rate of 1% Marx thinks that higher nominal interest rates are going to stick around he argues that lenders the folks who loan out money need to get a positive real return to make lending worthwhile using our example if the nominal interest rate dropped to 2% and inflation stayed at 4% the real interest rate would beus 2% believes this would be a bad situation because no sensible investor would lend money if they end up losing money after factoring in inflation so Marx thinks interest rates will need to stay higher in the next decade compared to the previous one this is how he suggests investing when interest rates are higher let's talk about your other memo you have another one called further thoughts on C change yes and that one which which was wrot written a couple months ago uh the essence of it if I can describe it and you'll correct me if I'm wrong is that because of the C change that you described in your earlier memo you think that there's going to be a SE change in assets that people are going to want to own and they're going to want to own more fixed income assets because interest rates are going to be high for quite some time is that fair that's fair you know the S&P has returned S&P 500 stock index has returned 10% a year plus just a little over 10 for 100 years that was enough to turn a dollar in 1920 into $15,000 that's that's a good rate of return today you can get Equity type returns from what we call Credit instruments loans uh corporate corporate loans loans for buyouts uh you can get high single digits on high yield bonds and leverage loans public instruments that are tradable and liquid or low double digits on um on private loans for buyouts the best buyouts the biggest buyouts uh double digigit returns isn't that enough and and Loans on credit instruments I mean Returns on credit instrum are much safer than Equity Equity just gets the residual after everybody gets paid they get what's left credit gets paid early in the process and if people don't pay you you get the company cuz they go bankrupt so it's quite safe and uh and uh returns that are fully competitive with equities with a good level of safety between 2001 and 2021 if you wanted to make good money with your Investments you pretty much had to put your money in stocks other options like savings accounts and bonds didn't offer much in terms of returns but now with higher interest rates becoming more common Howard marks thinks people will start moving their money from stocks to safer stuff called credit instruments let me break it down Marx went to the University of Chicago and learned about something called the risk curve basically it's like a chart that says if you want to make more money from your Investments you have to be okay with more risk in simple terms if all Investments made the same amount of money why would anyone put their money in a roller coaster stock market when they could just leave it in a savings account so people invest in Risky stuff because they hope to make more money now check this out when interest rates are low like they've been investors might have to take big risks like buying super volatile stocks to get the returns they want but when interest rates go up the risk curve moves up too so if you want the same return like 10% you don't have to take as much risk you could put your money in high quality bonds bonds instead of stocks bonds are less risky because if a company goes bankrupt Bond holders get their money back before stockholders do if higher interest rates stick around it could change how lots of people and organizations invest the days when everyone felt like they had to put their money in the stock market might be over we'll have to wait and see if Marx's prediction comes true thanks for watching subscribe for more weekly investment tips leave a comment below happy investing
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