저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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TSMC는 AI 수요와 3나노 기술로 매출이 2015년 약 200억달러에서 최근 693억달러로 성장. 영업이익률 45.6%, 영업현금흐름/매출 63.1%로 우수. 월가 컨센서스는 2024년 매출 22%, 2025년 20% 성장 예상. 선행 PER 15.35로 최근 3~4년 중 저평가 구간, 장기 투자자에게 매수 적합하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
hey everyone taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company is already up nearly 14% to start the year in 2024 but is the stock still a buy I understand it is benefiting demand for its semiconductor technology is absolutely soaring so let's take a look inside Taiwan semiconductor let's look at its growth rates its profit margins its cash flow and its valuation to Det determine if this stock is an excellent buy for long-term investor you can see over the last decade Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing Revenue has soared to 69.3 3 billion that was up from around 20 billion in 2015 this is likely to continue growing as demand for Semiconductor chips continues to sore from rising effectiveness of AI TSM has proven to be one of the Leading Edge manufacturers of semiconductor chips worldwide there are some geopolitical risks surrounding Taiwan semiconductor although I think that's going to be reflected when we look at valuation Revenue growth meanwhile remains on track to continue higher as it continues to innovate with its next generation 2 nanometer technology expected to come out next year already its 3 nanometer technology is driving demand higher for TSM the company's been able to innovate profitably it has demonstrated economies in scale economies in scale is one of the most desirable characteristics you can find in an investment in the example I have created here sales grow from 100 in year 1 to $115.7 in year 4 while while net income more than doubles from $4.50 to $947 in year four this company demonstrates economies in scale as its Revenue grows its profits grow by a larger magnitude not every company can achieve this kind of effective growth here's how it works this is a typical categorization of an income statement of a publicly traded company cost of goods sold is what's called a variable expense that means cost of goods sold is connected to sales other expenses like interest General and admin and depreciation are not connected to sales you can see here depreciation stays the same at 25 whether sales increase or not the same is true for interest expense it stays the same whether sales grows or not you can understand your interest payments do not increase when your sales increase overall businesses typically have a mixture of fixed expenses that are unrelated to sales and variable expenses that are when sales increase the business leverages those fixed expenses as we see in this example and profits grow by a larger magnitude than the increase in sales all right so now that we've looked at what it means you can look at its operating profit margin at 45.6251 and one of the best operating profit margins for companies that mainly Drive revenue from Hardware software companies can generate higher profitability because they don't deal with capital intensive industry like semiconductor technology companies like Hardware companies TSM is impressive in that it's been able to achieve this driven mainly by Hardware the next thing I wanted to look at is cash flow from operations to sales cash flow from operations is one of the most vital metrics I consider when making an investment decision if any Financial Shenanigans are happening looking at this metric can help uncover the fraud moreover looking at profitability without considering cash flow from operations can lead to a misleading picture of a company's performance for instance look at the example I've created here the company reported a net loss of $250 however when you look at the cash flow from operations it was a gain of $35 how can that be well two expenses a company must report on the income statement are depreciation and stock-based compensation importantly these are non-cash expenses money is not leaving the company for these expenses in the case of depreciation when a company buys a machine for $750 it pays all of that price upfront however generally accepted accounting principles require that the company take the expense over a period the machine is expected to operate so if the machine is expected to last for 10 years the annual expense will be $75 per year for 10 years even though the company paid the $750 cash at the time of the purchase also when a company offers its employees a stock option it's not parting with cash however it must record the cash value of the option as an expense on the income statement so moving on to the working capital items Inventory management is the easiest way a company can increase cash flow the simplest case is when a business has 100 inventory units sells 30 units and doesn't replace those units the decision would reduce total inventory and increase cash flow as you might already be thinking this isn't sustainable eventually the company will deplete all its inventory and go out of business accounts payable is the money that a company owes another company and has not paid yet and accounts receivable is the opposite a company can increase its Cash Flow by collecting payments faster and paying suppliers slower if done with skill companies at scale can take advantage of these timing differences to boost Cash Flow by a couple of percent annually Costco is one example that employs this strategy masterfully overall If You observe cash flow increasing unsustainably you should expect a reversal of that Trend the other big risk to consider is if you see a company reporting substantial profits but negative or weak cash flow due to Rising accounts receivable all right so now that we've gotten a closer look at what it means for cash flow from from operations TSM again with a phenomenal metric of 63.1 15% this is among the best cash flow from operations to sales numbers of any company that I follow I don't know if there's any company that beats TSM I know Visa will be close I'm not sure I'll have to double check again but this is an incredible number that's among the leader board of companies worldwide demonstrating again along with its operating profitability just how good TSM is at doing what it does it's the best in class in doing what it does and that's hard to find for investors looking for a company that operates extremely efficiently looking forward a couple of years for fiscal year 2024 Wall Street expects TSM to generate 22% Revenue growth and 99.9% earnings growth for fiscal year 2025 Wall Street expects 20% Revenue growth with 22.8% earnings per share growth and for 2026 the growth rate is expected at 12.8% with negative 8.3% earnings per share for 2026 remember this is a group of Wall Street analysts that follow TSM stock they submit their forecast for what they think revenue and earnings per share will be in the next few years and this is the consensus estimate among those analysts that are following TSM stock remember this is not guaranteed to happen nobody knows what's going to happen in the future although Wall Street analysts that are following the stock have a pretty good idea in what revenue and earnings per share are going to be they work closely with company management to get numbers to get hypotheticals and then they derive their financial models and make their forecast they're not always precisely accurate but they do a pretty good job in forecasting revenue and earnings per share growth over at least the next one two to three years right when you're looking at 5 to 10 years then it becomes much much harder to forecast but over the 1 to threee period it's a little bit easier although still not easy because it is in the future and there is so much uncertainty but the Lesser years you're looking at the more accurate you can be and the further along you're looking at the wider your estimates have to be because then you're working with many more variables that can go one way or another and finally valuation judging by tsm's forward price to earnings ratio of 15.35 the stock is on the lower end of where it's traded at according to this metric going back three three and a half years you could have been buying the stock at a cheaper valuation although for most of the last 3 or four years it's been more expensive than where it's currently trading at so all these things considered I would say yes TSM stock is a buy right now at these current prices for long-term investors thank you for watching this video I truly appreciate it I know there's a lot you could be doing with your time and a lot of other videos you could be watching so I truly appreciate that you chose to watch this one if you want to see more videos just like this hit the Subscribe or the like button they'll both help me make more videos just like this one thank you again get
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