Why did Warren Buffett & Ray Dalio sell their Apple and Snowflake stocks?! - Should You Too? 👀

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버핏과 달리오가 애플 지분을 대폭 매도한 이유를 분석. 버핏은 1분기 세금 부담 우려와 높은 밸류에이션으로 애플 일부를 팔았고, 스노우플레이크는 손실 상태에서 전량 매도. 달리오 브리지워터도 애플을 약 75% 줄임. 애플은 밸류에이션(PEG 약 4)이 높고 성장 둔화, 경기 침체 우려가 있음. 진행자는 애플 보유를 유지하되 추가 매수는 하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 스노우플레이크는 적자와 높은 밸류에이션으로 매력이 낮다고 평가.

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01. so as you guys know Apple stock has of course long been Warren Buffett's largest holding in his portfolio of course has through Brookshire hathway and he's always praised Apple for having an incredible cash generating business uh and that's really despite the fact that he's admitted to not being very techsavvy himself but he just couldn't ignore how sticky their products and services are how many customers around the world love to use them and many of which by the way are even willing to upgrade those devices every year despite the very expensive premium price tags for Apple products all of which has generated enormous cash flow for the company which is something that Buffett has always prioritized in his Investments now while that is the case for most of his stocks well the 93-year-old CEO has also surprisingly been a big supporter and investor of the fast growing cloud computing specialist Snowflake and I say this uh you know surp surprisingly because well it's not only a tech stock but it's also a stock here a company that is not even profitable instead focusing on high Topline growth which is kind of the opposite of what Buffett usually looks for in his Investments anyway all of this to say that Buffett was a very big believer in those two companies and yet this month the market was shocked to learn that buffit actually decided to sell almost half of his entire Apple position last quarter while also Al completely exiting out of his entire snowflake holding as well and by the way the craziness doesn't even stop there either as in fact another Ultra popular investor some might argue the second most popular after Warren Buffett Ray Doo through Bridgewater Associates which he founded and still leads their investment committee well they too decided to sell Apple stock cutting their position down by almost 75% it's absolutely wild guys and so this really begs the question here what the heck is going on why are two of the biggest investors and hedge funds in history all of a sudden turning sour on Apple stock and selling such a giant amount of it as well as snow snowflake stock too well look we got this information through their mandatory 13f reports that they have to file with the SEC every quarter but unfortunately they're not required to give reasons as to why they make these purchases or sales now sometimes they will give some clarity on this through an earnings report or maybe during a shareholder meeting but unfortunately at the time of this recording we have not received any such official statements from either Berkshire or Bridgewater however I do feel that we have enough information here already to make some pretty good assumptions as to why they made these moves so let's jump straight into this and I'll share with you all of my thoughts and opinions as we run through this and I'll even tell you if I agree or disagree with the moves that they made and what I'm doing doing myself personally too okay so looking at it here we have Berkshire Hathaway's five biggest sales last quarter which includes both apple and snowflake now we'll start with apple first and then I'll talk about snowflake right after but when looking at Apple their largest holding that was consistently making up around half of their entire portfolio up until last quarter well they now decided to cut it by almost half the entire amount and by the way if you look at that ownership history there it's in the blue bar graph there well you can see that they sold a small amount of it in the prior quarter as well which at that time was about an 11% decrease now back then that was in q1 Buffett was asked about that sale and he basically said that it was pretty much entirely to do with taxes he felt that in the future the capital gains tax will rise and because he's already up by so much on the Apple position he just felt that it was a smarter move to sell the stock now at a lower tax rate and then potentially he could always buy back in later if he chooses to well of course we know now that the following quarter he did not choose to buy back those shares but instead actually sold even more cutting it by an additional 49% so one obvious question is you know is this really just a continuation of that same feeling that he had that the tax rate will rise in the future so it's smarter to keep selling for now to lock in those really high profits at the lower tax rate well if we go back to that chart there based on the average Buy price during the periods where he purchased Apple stock was estimated that he is up close to 500% on his Apple position now I heavily emphasize the word estimated because these figures are usually wrong he's probably up a lot more than that just because of how average prices work but yeah either way we're essentially talking about gigantic profits here so large in fact to where it probably does make sense to lock in the really high profits if you really do believe that the tax rate will go up uh for them if you were to sell them at a later date plus you got to keep in mind too that Buffett has always really loved Apple's business so it would be a little strange to suddenly turn sour on it and sell the stock just because you know he doesn't believe in the company anymore in fact Buffett was quoted once in saying that apple is probably the best business that he knows in the entire world so that a big statement there coming from someone that is so heavily invested in so many different companies to where I really doubt that all of a sudden he just think he just thinks apple has a a bad business going on and even after this uh most recent sale again Apple Still Remains the largest holding of his portfolio at over 30% so that does lead to some Credence here that perhaps he did continue the selling because of tax rates rather than it being about you know something to do with the business however I personally don't think that that's the reason or at least not the main reason it could be part of the reason but even then I think it's a relatively small one at that because when I look at Apple stock and I look at the economy and I look at what Warren Buffett always preaches as an investor it just makes so much more sense that he would think that the valuation is too high at these levels and it's therefore time to lock in profits even if he really likes the business just in case the stock happens to fall in the near future and here's why I ECT this so number one you look at the economy right well everyone is worrying about a recession happening soon right that's not to say that it will happen and in fact the FED is very likely to start lowering interest rates very soon which if they did it soon enough to avoid a recession it would probably send the market climbing rather than falling but as it stands interest rates and inflation and debt levels across the board across the entire economy are still at insane levels right now which is weighing heavily on everyone by the way I don't want any ridiculous comment saying that inflation has come down inflation is cumulative and has absolutely not come down we are still under huge inflation and all of this is weighing heavily on consumers which by the way spoiler alert Apple's entire business uh really relies on healthy consumers to be able to purchase their premium expensive products every year so that in itself is already a bad sign which by the way you can already see some of this taking shape in Apple's growth rates now don't get me wrong this is still easily one of the absolute best financially performing companies in the entire world usually doing around 350 to 400 billion doll in Revenue with close to a 100 billion of that going straight to the bottom line which is insane profitability but the growth is slowing down in fact both figures actually declined last year with sales only expected to rise by imly 3% this year as as well that's very low coming off of an already declining year now from there it is expected to get a little bit better but not anything that would break out into the double digits of course that's probably fine when you're already so profitable like this you really care much more about the bottom line as opposed to how fast you're growing those sales when you know everything is already so large which by the way talking about profitability well EPS that's still expected to grow by a double digit rate on average over the next 5 years which is good but you also have to keep in mind that much of that growth is being fueled by huge stock BuyBacks and even then it's also about half the growth rate that they saw during the previous 5 years as well again though I'll just reiterate that apple is one of the strongest companies in the world and even I own a little bit of the stock myself too so I don't want to sound overly negative but all I'm saying is that at this massive size growth is going to start to feel limited especially if the economy happens to to get worse which leads me to reason number two Buffett may feel that the valuation is just too high right now to take that risk in fact apple is currently the most highly valued company in the entire world at over $3.4 trillion of a market cap which is after climbing by close to 800% in the past 10 years up to a record high at these levels even by what is probably the most forgiving valuation metric that we could look at for Apple the adjusted peeg ratio that factors in future EPS growth which is obviously Apple's strongest metric at the moment well it still sits at almost four guys generally a peeg ratio of one is considered a good value but apples is is you know almost four times larger than that and even when compared to their own 5-year average should be more forgiving right well it's still 62% higher than that and even compared to the sector median it's still over 100% higher than that too and so I think that rich Val valuation coupled with the slowing growth coupled with the weak economy coupled with how much Buffett is already up on the position and also coupled with the fact that he thinks capital gains tax will likely rise in the future well it all just kind of makes sense for why he would choose to sell now after all probably the most famous line from Buffett ever is to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fear fearful which of course in this particular case I think the former to that saying applies to be fearful when others are greedy because when when I look at Apple's stock and its valuation and and how high investors are driving up that price well it definitely looks like you know there's more greed going on rather than fear and I wouldn't be surprised if Ray Doo's Bridgewater felt the same way about this too choosing to sell almost 75% of their position as well which by the way they had actually just purchased those shares the quarter prior but we already estimated to be up around 24% on it so they probably saw a big profit happen so quickly that they decided to lock in those profits too because of that rich valuation and because of where everything stands right now in the broader sense too as for me though I'm still holding my small position longterm cuz I love how much cash that Apple generates how much cash they currently hold and all the future potential they have in terms of moves that they can still make with artificial intelligence and folding phones and other things that could convince a lot of their user based to upgrade their devices I actually have a few family members and friends who you know are still rocking iPhone 11s and 12s that uh I know would probably be willing to upgrade if the new ones came out with some really cool AI features or could unfold into like an iPad meie that would be really cool or even fold it down in size right like the clam shells could fold down in size that would I think especially be popular for girls out there who like smaller phones and stuff like that so there's just a lot of ways that I think they could still convince people to upgrade a lot in the future too so there are some things to look forward to I just think you know the valuation is high and so personally I'm not buying any more shares at this time because I think my returns could be much greater with other stocks instead so I'm not buying anymore but uh I'm still holding on to what I have but I can definitely understand why Buffett and doo sold their stocks it's never bad to lock in profits especially when you're dealing with what is essentially the most expensive stock in the entire world at least by market cap now when it comes to snowflake well this one is actually quite a bit different in fact it's kind of the opposite situation of apple and I'll explain why let's pull up that chart here again now you can see right there a 100% decrease in shares seemingly out of nowhere and where this really differs from Apple though and even all of these other sales too is that snowflake was the only stock of the list that both was actually down on and not just by a small amount either but according to the estimates he was down close to 40% on his position that's a pretty big deal guys because it means that Buffett sold at a loss so in this case you can't even really make that argument anymore that he did it to lower his tax burden for the future because he actually sold it for a loss which makes the move even more puzzling as selling for a loss is not something that Buffett tends to you know usually do in fact if we go go back to that saying be fearful when others are greedy but be greedy when others are fearful well looking at snowflakes price performance it's pretty clear that investors have definitely been fearful on the stock in fact this year most you know most Ai and cloud computing tech stocks have Skyrocket in price but snowflake has actually crashed by 38% year-to date and even more so if we go back to when they first IPO was like in 2020 since then the stock has lost over half its entire value so why then would a long-term minded investor like Warren Buffett sell out of the stock instead of you know actually buying more if he's currently down on his position well I actually think that this one is pretty simple to explain to my guess is that he probably felt that the valuation was too expensive for a company that has not made enough progress towards profitability which matters a huge amount to someone like Buffett and he was also probably tired of seeing the stock fall this entire time as especially going into a weak economy that could be headed for recession and it's even kind of snowballed into a bigger deal because of that lack of profitability weak economy no profits company's going to struggle right so I think maybe those things kind of scared Buffett a bit for it his investment there in fact you look at their financials while sales were soaring their net income has actually been gradually getting worse every year and even their sales growth has kind of decelerated a bit too now sales are still growing by over 20% % a year but you look at the valuation even after the crash their peeg ratio is still close to 400% higher than the sector while even their much more forgiving price of sales ratio is also 3 to 400% higher as well and so even at a 20% Revenue growth rate you know as good as that is for most companies out there it's just not going to cut it in this scenario when you're not profitable your growth is decelerating and the stock has been performing so poorly and there's so many things you know that could be wrong with the economy and so I I just think that Buffett was kind of tired of waiting around for snowflake to turn a corner now personally I've always felt that snowflake does have a lot of future potential and I wouldn't even be opposed to buying some of the stock myself as a small speculative play here you know after the stock has crashed by so much but there's only one reason why I haven't purchased any shares myself and that's because I just have so much exposure to cloud computing and AI as it is I mean I own Microsoft I own Amazon Google Alibaba Nvidia by tenson Cisco broadcom and so many others that just have you know again even exposure to Ai and cloud and so many other things I have so much exposure in those areas to the point where I just really don't need this type of stock in my portfolio it would probably feel like Overkill if I did decide to pick some up but hey that's just my situation and all of this is just my opinion and my own specul potion it's all we can really do at this point is just kind of make some guesses and stuff but hey I'd love to hear your thoughts what do you all think do you agree with my thoughts here do you disagree how do you feel about these stocks how do you feel about these moves I'd love to hear your thoughts Down Below in the comment section thanks again for stopping by my friends I hope you enjoyed the video now we'll catch you in the next one all right take care everybody wish you the best of luck with any decisions you make out there take care everybody bye-bye he