저자: KevinGreen · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 역발유 투표량 기준 2표준편차 근접 상승으로 후속 상승 가능성 언급하나 20일선 저항 부담. 트럼프 관세 보류(그린란드 프레임워크)로 시장 긍정적이나 EU의 미국 자산 이탈 우려 잔존. 달러와 금리는 아직 높은 수준. Jensen Huang은 AI가 숙련 기술직 수요·임금을 끌어올린다고 낙관. GE Aerospace 실적 어닝 비트, 서비스 매출 강세 언급. S&P500 상방 6940, 하방 6850 레벨 제시.
다듬은 글
Let's bring in Kevin Green, senior markets correspondent right away to help set up the action today. All right, KG, set the stage for us the big picture take on markets, especially I know you were across the shifting sands all day yesterday through this morning. Yeah, we are seeing a positive move in the S&P 500 this morning and that's not out of the ordinary, especially when you see that volume difference for the S&P 500 up minus down volume.
We got fairly close to a two-standard deviation move to the upside. And usually when that does occur, we usually do have a follow-through day. And that seems like that's taking place right now. I think if you're looking at the technicals on the S&P 500, you're looking at that 20-day moving average acting as your area of resistance.
And that's pretty much where we are trading at right now. If you're looking at the futures contracts, obviously the market's a little bit more optimistic. The tariffs are going to be put on hold and they're not going to go into effect. That's obviously going to be a positive. But I think we are still seeing maybe some pockets of the market, especially if you're looking at the treasury space and the dollar.
Uh you're looking at a market that's still trying to figure out what this fra framework of a deal is actually going to be and if Denmark is going to accept it. Uh so we are not seeing the dollar kind of reverse aggressively the move that we saw over the last two days where it did move to the downside and also yields are still relatively higher than when we started this whole process.
So uh a nice little bounce back. you'd like to see some broad participation, but I would be cautiously optimistic where we are at right now, especially with volatility kind of crushing to the downside leading up to the last couple of weeks in January as well as February. February seasonally is a little bit difficult here.
So, cautiously optimistic here. Nice little start to the day, but let's see if the market actually sells into some of the strength. Okay, and let's catch people up on where things stand with tariffs. It seems like it's kind of the familiar playbook. Not everybody's on True Social. Not everybody watched President Trump's uh speech.
Where do things stand now? Yes. So, it appears that President Trump is uh you know spoke with General Mark Rut, which is the NATO secretary general, and they have a framework of a deal that could actually expand the uh presence of not only NATO, but US forces within Greenland. This also could include the expansion of the Golden Dome in Greenland as well.
And then potentially looking at mineral rights. Now once again we have not gotten this confirmed yet but that's really kind of the the framework that uh the US at least is kind of working under at this point in time which is why we are seeing the pause in the tariffs. I think there's still a little bit more of a concern about the long term when it comes to EU positioning in US equities as well as US treasuries.
There does appear to be maybe some uh thought that we could see maybe still this divevestature from US assets. Maybe not all, but maybe a little bit. And that's probably once again uh one of the reasons why we saw this about face, this taco trade that we kind of talk about on it seems like every 3 months or so that kind of took into effect here.
So that's that's the framework that we have right now. I'm sure we're going to get more details today and tomorrow. And we'll see how the market actually responds to not only the comments from the president and the in the US, but also the comments coming from Denmark and the EU. I think that's really going to be important.
Okay, we'll hear from Jay Wood shortly uh with thoughts on the taco trade because I know he has some uh but let's get into the latest in Davos before we dive into G earnings. You had Jensen Wong, Nvidia CEO uh speaking there and he sounds I mean I suppose he would sound optimistic about AI. Uh but what are some of your takeaways here as it pertains to Nvidia and beyond?
Yeah, he's still optimistic about AI obviously, right? That's a part of his business. does believe that it's being taken as seriously as maybe some of the other critical infrastructure that we've seen evolve in the United States uh when you're looking at expanding the grid or even the uh railroads and things of that nature.
So there's a heightened importance. He also addressed the fact that you know obviously a lot of economists as well as traders investors are concerned that a lot of this AI is going to take away from jobs or eat into jobs when it comes to growth here. But he is saying the AI boom is actually driving stronger demand for skilled trades like plumbers, electricians, construction workers, steel workers uh for that matter.
And they are also seeing wages for those roles actually rising very aggressively. So it's just a reallocation of uh resources and capital really when you're looking at the labor force and he's really optimistic about that and that growth can continue over the next couple of years. So he's not too concerned about everybody losing their jobs because of AI.
It's just a readjustment or realignment similar to what we saw once again in the telecom era uh in the internet boom. We did see a readjustment, a generational shift if you will when it came to labor. And that also will have an impact uh down the road over the next 10 years, 20 years. Uh where we do see once again maybe skilled trades kind of coming back into the forefront rather than maybe fouryear or you know sixyear degrees on the finance or you know liberal arts front.
Right. Okay. Let's talk uh some of the earnings. GE in particular, GE Aerospace. Uh we got those the latest results from them. Looks like a beat on the top and bottom line. What are some of your takeaways here? Yeah, we're seeing the shares kind of gyate here a little bit flat to slightly negative about 5 minutes ago.
So, we're still kind of digesting these numbers, but they actually were fairly good. If you're looking at the adjusted earnings per share, it came in at $157. Street was looking for $143 and the adjusted revenue came in at 11.87 billion. Street was looking for 11.17 billion, around 20% growth on a year-over-year basis.
And they did see and mark a 27 billion uh backlog of orders within the quarter for Q4. They're still optimistic when you're looking at the fiscal year 2026 EPS guide. They're guiding me between $710 and $7.40. Street was looking for $711 here. And they just continue to talk about the fact that there is a shortage when it comes to narrow body engines.
And that's really where they thrive. not only there when it's when they're coming to selling OEMs uh but also maintenance and servicing those engines as well which is a higher margin business and that's something that they did see a lot of growth in they say more than 70% of commercial engine revenue came from servicing those engines so they are seeing a lot of strength the backlog of orders is obviously a a positive and if Boeing and other airline company other airline and aircraft makers continue to see this ramp up or this refresh when it comes to current inventory GE Aerospace is definitely going to be a beneficiary area of that.
Okay, let's get your levels today on the S&P 500. What are you looking for to the upside and the downside? Yeah, to the upside looking at 6940 to the downside 6850. Volatility continues to crush. We are seeing the VIX uh contracts, especially if you're looking at the VIX curve normalizing here a tad bit.
Let's see how we test that 20-day moving average on the S&P 500. Do we actually accept or do we reject it and move lower? All right, thank you KG. That is Kevin Green, our senior markets correspondent for the network.
Comments 0