저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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Munger는 장기 복리와 소수의 좋은 기회 집중 투자를 강조하며, 단기 예측이나 과도한 분산 대신 기다림과 절제를 주장한다. 핵심 주장: 좋은 기회는 인생에서 몇 번뿐이며, 이를 알아보고 집중하는 것이 성과의 핵심이다. 지수 대비 초과수익은 잘 아는 소수 종목에 집중할 때 가능하다. 근거 사례: 본인은 Daily Journal, 버크셔해서웨이, Costco 등 소수 종목을 보유하며 지수를 앞섰다고 설명. 버크셔 창업 사업(백화점, 뉴잉글랜드 섬유, 상품권 회사)은 구조전환을 통해 성공했다. 분산 투자 비판: 분산은 기본 상식 수준이며 투자 전문가들이 이를 과시하는 것은 무의미하다. 소수 우량 기업 3개만 보유해도 충분히 분산되었다고 봄. 생활 원칙: 수입보다 적게 쓰고 단순하게 살 것, 질투와 원망을 피할 것을 강조. 모차르트 일화로 과도한 지출과 질투가 불행을 낳는다고 설명. 중국 투자: 중국 우량 기업이 미국 우량 기업보다 싸다고 보며, 중국 시장에 기회가 있다고 긍정적으로 언급. 장기 전망: 향후 주식 수익률이 인플레이션 조정 후 과거 7% 대비 낮아질 수 있으며(2~3%까지 가능성), 기대치를 낮추는 것이 현실적이라고 조언. 자사주 매입: 정치권이 기업 경영에 개입하는 것에 신중해야 하며, 주가가 비쌀 때 자사주 매입은 대체로 나쁜 결정이라고 지적. 특정 자산 방향 예측: 대상 자산에 대한 단기~중기 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
I had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a Pioneer and he came out to Iowa with no money but Youth and health and took it away from the Indians he fought in the blackhaw he was a captain in the Blackhawk Wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town and on the bank and and uh and highly regarded and a huge family and a very happy life and and he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that black top soil created a modern Rich civilization in some of the best land in the world his attitude was that in a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you live to be about 90 and the trick in coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren hung around him all somewhere and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew Grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first when I was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have in a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they can know a million things and that and of course the result is almost nobody can outperform an index whereas I sit here with my Daily Journal stock my birkshire haway stock my Holdings in leelu's Asian fund my Costco stock and of course I'm outperforming everybody and I'm 95 years old and I practically never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them the the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing you want the standard result and not be embarrassed well of course you can WI a diversify nobody's entitled to lot lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a d diversification an idiot could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and and but the whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know that something is better than average and in invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough and what the hell does you care you own three Securities and JP Morgan Chase owns a 100 you know it's what's wrong with owning a few Securities waren always says if you lived in a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best Enterprises in the town isn't that Diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that too because you like stories here's an apocryphal story that is very instructive a young man comes to visit Mozart and he says Mozart he says I want to write Symphonies and Mozart says how old are you and the man 23 moart says you're too young to write Symphonies he says but Mozart he says you were writing Symphonies when you were 10 years old Mozart says yes but I wasn't asking other people how to do it now there's another Mozart story here's the greatest musical Talent maybe that ever lived and what was his life like well he was bitterly unhappy and he died young that's the life of mosar what the hell did Mozart do to screw it up to make himself well he did two things that are guaranteed to create a lot of misery he overspent his income scrupulously that's number one that is really stupid the other thing was he was full of jealousies and resentments if you'll spend overspend your income and be full of jealousy and resentments you can have a lousy unhappy life and die young all you got to do is learn from Mozart you can also learn from that young man who was asking moart out to right sympathy the truth of the matter is that not everybody can learn everything some people are way the hell better and of course no matter how hard you try there always some guy that chevs more some guy or gal and the my attitud is so what do does any of us need to be the very top of the whole world it's ridiculous and another thing that people do like beard is amazing is they build these enormous mums I think they figure they want people to walk by that Mum and say gosh I wish I were in there anyway you can see we've had some fun as we go along and it worked so well but if you actually figure out how many decisions were made in the history of the Daily Journal Corporation or the history of Berkshire Hathaway it wasn't very many per year that were meaningful it's a game of being there all the time and recognizing the rare opportunity when it comes and recognizing that a normal human allotment is to not have very many now there's a very confident bunch of people who sell Securities who act as though they've got an endless supply of wonderful opportunities those people are the equivalent of the racetrack tout they're not even respectable it's not a good way to live your life to pretend to know a lot of stuff you don't know and pretend to furnish you a lot of opportunities you're not Furnishing and my advice to you is avoid those people but not if you're running a stock brokerage firm you need them but it's not the right way to make money and and and this business of of controlling the costs and living simply and that was the secret how much M Warren and I had tiny little bits of money we always underspend our incomes and we invested and we well you know if you live long enough you end up rich it's not very complicated and and now there is a part of life which is how do you scramble out of your mistakes without them costing too much and we've done some of that too and if you look at Burkshire Hathaway think of its founding businesses a doomed department store a doom New England textile company and a doom trading stamp company out of that came burer haway no we handled those losing hands pretty well and we bought into them very cheaply but of course the success came from changing our ways and getting into the better businesses and it isn't that we were so good at doing things that were difficult we were good at avoiding things that were difficult H love Mr mongram on your right uh you you speak about the importance of fishing in uh Waters with ample fish uh if you were starting out today what you know sea uh would you be fishing in uh other than in China of course well other than China but if there's one good place in the world that's more than my share there are others I'm sure but it's hard for me to believe that anything could be better for the mongers than China so I can't help you I tell my problem you'll have to solve Yours by the way the water is fine in China and some very smart people are waiting in and in due course I think more will wait in the great companies of China are cheaper than the grade companies in the United States hi Mr Monger my friend uh Miguel and I were from Barcelona and I have a question for you regarding uh long-term investment and compound interest so I try to remember if it was your Einstein that said that compound interest was the strongest forth on Earth and in the last few years years with the very low interest rates out there it's been difficult to find opportunities for having a long-term compound interest based strategy so beyond investing in Berkshire value investing or index funding where would you invite us to find opportunities for long-term investment where compound interest is really that worse well my advice for a seeker of compound interest that Works ideally is to reduce your expectations because I think it's going to be tougher for a while and it helps to have realistic expectations makes you less crazy and but I think that you know they say that Common Stocks from the aftermath of the Great Depression which was the worst in the English speaking World in hundreds of years to the present time maybe an index has produced 10% but that's pre-inflation after inflation maybe 7% or something and difference between seven and 10 in terms of its consequences are just hugely dramatic over that long period of time and if that seven in real terms that may been achieved starting at a perfect period through the greatest boom in history start in now it could well be 3% or 2% in returns and it's not Unthinkable you'd have 5% returns and 3% inflation or some Gastly consequences like that and so the ideal way to cope with that is to if it handles if that happens I can have a happy life because why shouldn't you be happy in spite of the fact that the civilization wasn't quite as easy as it was for my generation and now beyond that when it gets more difficult how should you do it well the answer is because it's going to be very difficult you should work at it and if all that gets you is 6% for a lifetime of work instead of five you should be cheerful about it if you want to hit it out of the park easily you should talk to Jim krer hi Charlie my name's Julia lar Ro uh last year we saw a record amount of share repurchases and now we're hearing rhetoric out of Washington DC specifically legislation to curb uh stock BuyBacks what's your take on stock BuyBacks and do you think politicians should be telling companies what to do thank you so much well generally speaking I'm restrained in my enthusiasm for politicians telling corporations what they should do but I will say this when it was a very good idea for companies to buy back their stock they didn't do very much and when the stocks got so high priced that it's frequently a bad idea they're doing a lot welcome to adult life this is the way it is but it's questionable at the present levels whether a lot of is smart was Eddie Lambert smart to buy back so much sh Rob book no and a lot of there's a lot of that kind of mistake that's been made
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