저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 미국 경제와 주식시장의 장기 성장을 낙관하지만 단기 시장 방향은 예측하지 않는다고 밝힘. 경제 성장: 1인당 GDP 약 5만7~5.8천 달러, 연 2% 성장이 한 세대(약 20~25년) 뒤 1인당 GDP를 약 1만9천 달러 늘린다고 설명. 트럼프의 고성장 목표는 평균적으로 어렵다고 봄. 고용·불평등: 실업률은 낮지만 노동참여율 하락과 고용 이동은 시장이 자연스럽게 재배치하는 과정으로 봄. 진짜 문제는 상위 부유층 부의 급증(포브스 400 순자산 930억→2.4조 달러)과 그 분배 불균형이라고 지적. 미국의 위상: 세계 GDP 비중은 줄었지만 경제 리더 지위는 유지, 도덕적 리더십도 필요하다고 언급. 파리기후협정 탈퇴는 잘못된 결정이라고 평가. 무역은 전체에는 이익이지만 특정 노동자(오하이오 철강 노동자 등)에게 해롭기 때문에 보호 장치가 필요하다고 봄. 주식시장: 시장 버블 여부는 알 수 없고 단기 방향은 예측하지 않는다는 입장. 1942년 이후 주식을 꾸준히 보유했고, 다우는 100에서 21,000으로 상승. 2009년 3월 저점 이후 상승을 언급하며 트럼프에게 공을 돌리지 않겠다고 함. 투자 조언: 미국에 베팅하고, 시장 단기 방향 예측에 흔들리지 말고 꾸준히 매수하라고 권고. 대상 자산별 방향: 미국 시장 전반에 대한 장기 낙관. 특정 종목·단기 가격 전망은 언급 없음. 금리·환율 등 개별 자산 예측은 없음. 리스크: 소득 불균형, 무역으로 인한 특정 지역 노동자 피해, 시장 버블 가능성(부정하지 않음).
다듬은 글
the state of the economy was our first topic the stock market's booming uh unemployment rate is what as low as it's been in 15 16 years but we're still not seeing the growth that people would like to see what's going on the economy is doing well but all Americans aren't doing well but uh we've got 57 or 58,000 of GDP per person in the United States that is a lot of stuff and yet the growth the rate of growth yeah is what 2% president Trump is saying we're going to get it up a lot higher than that uh is that is that doable well it may be occasionally it happens but no I don't think uh probably on average we'll have that kind of growth but 2% does wonders for you Judy I mean if you take 2% we have a half a percent population growth and we have a little immigration but 2% in one generation will add $19,000 of GDP per person family of four 76,000 in one generation so your children and children's children and all that they'll live far far far better than we live uh with 2% growth well let me then ask you about a little bit about the employment picture because it is as you said low unemployment people a lot of people have jobs at the same time we're we're told the labor participation rate is lower than what uh the experts like it to be more people are leaving uh jobs than are joining uh is that are we seeing some kind of shift well we always see shifts in employment I mean if you think about it if you go back to 1800 it took 80% of the labor force to produce enough food for the for the country now it takes less than 3% well the truth is that that market systems move people around you also see those some experts saying that not enough there aren't enough workers out there who know who have the skills to do all the jobs that are needed well there's always a mismatch I mean you know as as the econom is evolved it reallocates resources now the real problem in my view is uh I mean this has been the prosperity has been unbelievable for the extremely rich people uh uh if you go to 1982 when Forbes put off their first 400 list those people had 93 billion they now have 2.4 trillion 25 for one I mean that is this has been a Prosperity that's been disproportionately rewarding to the people on top are we stuck forever with with some measure of inequality no we we generally have have translated greater output in the few hours of week of work per week over the last century or and that's a good Trend in the future but we do have to have a system that as the as as output of goods and services keeps increasing per capita that it takes care of the people who are willing to work and really are not getting by very well with a family uh on a 40-hour week you come across as optimistic about the future of this country I think you wrote to your shareholders last year it's been a mistake to bet against the United States for the last 240 years has the US standing though in the world been has it been changed has it been harmed in any way given what's been going on for the last six or eight months we do not have quite a percentage of the world's GDP that we had 20 or 30 or 40 years ago but we're still the leader the question is whether we can be the moral leader as well as the economic leader and what do you think well I think I think that is a Podium that we should have we will be the economic leader uh and and we we should be the moral leader we should stand for more than the fact that we're the wealthiest country and do you think we are right now well sometimes we are and sometimes we aren't I I did not think what happened in on on the parish agreement was a good idea and I mean we have to live with the rest of the world and it a mistake in my view I trade has generally developed in this country we actually export 12 or 13% of our GDP was only 5% 1970 but it benefits us it benefits the rest of the world it doesn't benefit the steel worker maybe in Ohio and that's the problem that has to be address because when you have something that's good for society but terribly harmful for given individuals you got to make sure those individuals are taken care of let me ask you about um a couple of questions about markets investing I mean nobody knows markets better than you do I think you said earlier this year that you weren't worried that the market was in a bubble because interest rates were staying low as you know the Federal Reserve is starting to raise them do you still feel the market is not in a bubble well anything can happen in markets I mean I bought my first stock in 1942 in the spring of 42 I was 11 years old and so 75 years have gone by and I've never known what the Market's going to do the next day I that's and that's not my game my game is to decide whether I'm in the right economy which am America has definitely been ever since that time the Dow has gone from 100 to 21,000 during that time and and all no matter what the headlines say you know terrible things are happening we were losing the war in the Pacific and when I first bought stocks uh so America's going to do fine over time American Business is going to do fine over time occasionally we go off the tracks with bubbles like uh and and a lot of human air and that sort of thing but uh it it'll never permanently railers and I don't try and guess when to get in and out of the market I've owned stocks consistently since 1942 I own this I was buying stocks the day before the election I was buying the same stocks the day after election and if Hillary had been elected it would have been the same thing does President Trump deserve credit for what's going on right now in the market I the stock market has been going up basically since March of 2009 that's when it hit the bottom very early in March it's been going up more or less ever since son and if I ever get elected president I will never claim credit for anything the market does because I don't want to be blamed when it goes the other direction your your um uh investment decisions over time have been remarkably right much of the time most of the time today as people look at you and look at the decisions that you've made what mainly should people take away they should be willing to bet on America they should not listen to a lot of jabbering about what the Market's going to do tomorrow or next week or next month cuz nobody knows they should just keep buying and buying and buying a little bit of America as they go along and 30 or 40 years from now they'll have a lot of money B
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