저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 마이클 버리는 정부의 대규모 재정·통화 확대로 인플레이션, 나아가 하이퍼인플레이션 위험이 커지고 있으며 달러 가치 훼손을 경고한다. 인플레이션 경고 근거: 버핏의 1980년 서한을 인용해 인플레이션은 실질 수익을 갉아먹고 투자자에게 암묵적 세금으로 작용한다고 주장. 현재 시점의 이익이 미래 이익보다 더 가치 있다는 논리다. 경제 회복과 부양책: 코로나 이후 경제 재개와 추가 부양책이 물가 상승을 부를 것이라고 전망. 코로나 이전에는 GDP 1단위를 만들기 위해 부채 3단위가 필요했는데 지금은 더 나빠졌다고 진단. 비트코인·금 전망: 인플레 위기 시 정부가 비트코인과 금 같은 통화 경쟁자를 억압할 것이라고 주장. 비트코인과 금을 확실한 안전자산으로 보지 않으며, 중앙집권적 정부가 비트코인의 탈중앙성 유지를 허용하지 않을 것이라고 언급. 인도, 미국 등의 비트코인 규제 움직임도 언급. 역사적 비교: 1920년대 독일 하이퍼인플레이션을 미국의 경로와 비교. 독일이 전쟁 비용과 금융위기 비용을 세금이 아닌 전쟁 채권과 신규 지폐 발행으로 메운 것처럼, 미국도 같은 길을 가고 있다고 주장. 책 『The Death of Money』를 인용해 인플레이션이 호황과 부의 급증 뒤에 오며 범죄와 빈곤을 늘린다고 설명. 시장 과열 경고: 1920년대 독일에서 투기 열풍 후 거래량이 감당 못할 수준이 됐던 사례를 들어, 현재 로빈후드 등 리테일 거래 플랫폼 폭증과 게임스탑 등 밈주식 광풍을 과열 신호로 지목. 시장 거품과 그 과열을 위험하다고 평가. 리스크: 하이퍼인플레이션이 현실화되면 구매력 붕괴와 사회적 혼란이 올 수 있다는 것이 핵심 리스크. 출연자 전망: 버리는 과거 주택시장 붕괴를 예측해 명성을 얻은 인물로, 이번 경고도 진지하게 받아들일 가치가 있다는 진행자의 평가가 제시됨. 단 영상 자체는 과거 발언 소개 위주이며 구체적 가격 목표나 매매 지시는 없음.
다듬은 글
Best known for his billion-dollar bet against the housing market in the early 2000s, he has another prediction. And this forecast is truly frightening. This is a prediction we don't want to come true. It involves hyperinflation of a level we haven't seen before, which could be quite scary. There's a lot of talk in the air right now, but let's jump into today's video to see where inflation levels are headed and what its forecast actually indicates.
So, Michael Burry has a Twitter account where he often posts economic forecasts. As the COVID situation now impacts the rapidly changing dynamics of the economy, Michael Burry is constantly giving his opinion on what will happen next, trying to accurately predict events. Due to the recent COVID situation, the government has printed trillions and trillions of dollars.
This led some investors and speculators to believe that they were on the verge of hyperinflation or some kind of unwanted inflation. Now let's see what exactly Michael Burry said. If we look at this article, it says, " 'The Great Bear' Investor Michael Burry Turns to Warren Buffett to Highlight the Dangers of Inflation." Michael Burry quotes Warren Buffett to highlight the dangers of inflation.
The investor highlighted Buffett's warning that inflation erodes real returns, which is very true because inflation robs you of purchasing power. So, Michael Burry took to Twitter to highlight the dangers of inflation in a thread last Tuesday. Here's what he said: " Warren Buffett's annual letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders were very helpful to me at the time .
During the last great inflation, Warren Buffett wrote on this topic, and those looking to the future should review the chairman's letter from 1980." Burry shared several screenshots from Buffett's 1980 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. In the letter, Buffett explained that high ratios act as a tax on capital, discouraging companies from investing by reducing their real profits.
Inflation can also cause investors to earn negative returns, Buffett said, because it serves as an implicit tax on their purchasing power, in addition to the explicit taxes they pay on dividends and investment returns. “The average tax-paying investor is now running up a downward escalator whose pace has accelerated so much that his progress is zero,” the Berkshire CEO wrote.
Buffett took out this letter to emphasize that if inflation increases, corporate profits today will be much more valuable than profits in the future. “ Using Buffett’s 1980 lessons for 2021 doesn’t need much translation, ” he wrote on Twitter . So, with high inflation, every dollar of profit today becomes important, he continued.
Profits in 10 and 20 years, as it follows, may be worth significantly less tomorrow than today. But that's not the only thing Buffett said about inflation. In addition to inflation leading to lower profitability for many companies, Michael Bury also talks about inflation in relation to Bitcoin, gold, and other assets.
So, as you can see from the Business Insider article, we see that Michael Bury expects the economic recovery and stimulus to fuel inflation. The investor known for the film The Price Is Right has warned that governments could crack down on Bitcoin and gold to protect their currencies. Bury singled out hyperinflation in Germany in the 1920s as a cautionary tale for the United States.
So, he does expect that a post-pandemic economic recovery and another round of stimulus will lead to higher prices, and he does not consider Bitcoin or gold to be guaranteed safe havens for investors. As we know, Bitcoin has grown significantly over the past year, and many have rushed to it, seeing it as a means of storing wealth .
However, Michael Bury doesn't really see this as a real solution to inflation, especially when governments intervene, which can destroy these other things. So, he continues: “ Get ready for inflation,” the investor said, “the opening of the economy and stimulus are already on the way.” Before COVID-19, it took three units of debt to create one unit of GDP, and now the situation is worse.
During an inflationary crisis, governments will act to suppress competitors in the currency arena— Bitcoin and gold.” Now, what is interesting is that he said that governments will act to suppress competitors in the currency arena, such as Bitcoin and gold, as they have done in the past. This is something that is already happening and something that we have discussed before.
So, take a look at this short excerpt from a video we did last week where we talked about Michael Bury's thoughts on Bitcoin. So, here's what he said in the tweet. He says, “Legally cruel, heartless, centralized governments that have a vital interest in currency monopolies will not allow Bitcoin to thrive and remain decentralized in the long term.” So, in that short clip, we basically showed you that there are a lot of countries , like India and the United States, that are trying to see if it's possible to ban Bitcoin, especially because we know that it's a hedge outside of the financial system.
Continuing the inflation theme from Michael Bury in this article, Michael Bury continued to talk about inflation on Twitter. He then quoted extensively from the book The Death of Money: Lessons from the Great German and American Inflation. And this was the book he used to get his point across. So this book, The Death of Money, essentially provides tremendous economic value on what will happen during the next economic crisis in relation to key inflation levels and the money supply.
It goes into detail about how inflation can actually destroy your money and looks at scenarios from the past. So, according to lifeclub.com, which is a book review resource, we see a brief summary explaining the gist of this book. It goes like this : “Remember the 2008 financial crisis ? Are you glad that the worst is behind us and the world can look forward to a period of growth, prosperity, and happiness?
If so, prepare to be shocked. The current monetary system, in which the money in your pocket has no intrinsic value, is actually incredibly fragile, and the next crisis is already on the horizon.” So, there are three main points in the book summary. The first point: why do the government and central banks intentionally devalue the money in your pocket, which is related to inflation and how it erodes your purchasing power; where the next crisis will come from and how to protect your savings from depreciating to the level of the cost of a loaf of bread; and the final point—how American locomotives were recently traded for frozen turkeys and why this may become the norm in the future.
So, essentially, this book describes how dire the economic situation can really become. Berry highlighted passages in the book about the recurrence of inflation throughout history, how it is usually preceded by an economic boom and rapid enrichment, and how it leads to increased crime, the cost of living, and poverty.
The investor compared Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s to America's current trajectory. Germany, like the United States, started by not adequately covering the costs of its war on COVID and the consequences of the global financial crisis. Instead of relying on the sacrifices of their people and taxes, they covered the deficit with war loans , treasury bonds, and the issuance of new paper Reichsmarks or dollars.
Doomed to repeat. " History is not useless," he said in another tweet. This text explores American inflation in the 1970s, which is more relevant than one might think. But he also drew parallels between the market mania in Germany before inflation began and the Reddit-fueled buying of meme stocks this year, which forced Robinhood to temporarily suspend purchases of certain stocks, such as GameStop.
So, what he said is quite relevant today, and it's shockingly relevant to how things are unfolding right now. The article goes on to say that Michael Bury said: " Before the German hyperinflation of the 1920s, everyone from the lifter up was playing the market, and the trading volumes became such that the financial industry could not keep up with the paperwork, and the exchange had to close." Sound familiar?
#robinhood is not working. "And when he says Robinhood isn't working, he's actually referring to a lot of different trading platforms that have seen an incredible surge in users." As we know, these platforms are growing year after year, and the number of retail traders is rapidly increasing. There are so many different platforms that are n't even accepting new users simply because the flow of people is so large right now .
So, it says: " Bury's latest comments reiterate his warnings about a huge market bubble and his description of the hype around GameStop as unnatural, crazy, and dangerous." "So, overall, Michael Bury is a person who has correctly predicted key economic events before." Whether you like him or think he's right, we should take his words to heart because he's been right before, and these predictions could cost us dearly if we look back on them a year from now.
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