저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 레이 달리오의 대규모 금 매수는 실제 비중이 작아 과잉 해석하지 말고, 중앙은행 개입 아래 주식 밸류에이션이 부풀어 있으니 분산투자가 필요하다는 내용이다. [달리오/브리지워터의 금 매수] 브리지워터가 금에 약 4억 달러를 투자했다는 소식이 알려졌다. 그러나 브리지워터 운용자산(약 1,600억 달러) 대비 극히 작은 규모라 전체 포지션을 헤지하려는 신호로 보기 어렵다고 진행자는 본다. 진행자는 이를 시장 방향을 떠보는 시험적 투자로 해석한다. 금은 인플레이션 방어 및 유한한 자원이라는 점에서 보유할 만하다고 언급하나, 현 시점 최고의 자산이라는 주장은 하지 않는다. [중앙은행·시장 구조에 대한 달리오의 경고] 연준이 시장을 인위적으로 떠받치고 있어 전통적 밸류에이션 지표가 전체 상황을 설명하지 못한다고 달리오가 경고했다. 자본시장은 더 이상 자유시장이 아니며 중앙은행과 정부의 조율로 움직인다는 주장이다. 주가수익비율(PER)이 40을 넘는 등 과열 신호가 있으며 중앙은행 대차대조표도 크게 팽창했다. 달리오는 이러한 부양 조치가 정당했으나 결과적 부작용이 따른다고 본다. [달리오의 미국 달러 기축통화 리스크 우려] 미국 달러가 글로벌 기축통화 지위를 잃을 위험이 있다고 달리오가 우려했다. 진행자는 이를 장기적 리스크로 언급하며 구체적 시점은 제시하지 않는다. [투자 전략 권고] 달리오는 경제 환경과 무관하게 잘 버티는 여러 자산군에 분산투자하고 시장 타이밍을 노리지 말라고 권한다. 진행자도 포트폴리오 분산을 강조하며, 한 자산에 포트폴리오의 90%를 몰아두면 그 자산이 부진할 때 곤란해진다고 말한다. [테슬라 및 버블 논쟁] 테슬라 주가가 2,000달러를 돌파했으나 회사 수익은 그만큼 크지 않다고 지적한다. 현재가 버블인지 여부는 단정하기 어렵다고 답하며, 버블·경기침체·경제 붕괴 임박 등 어떤 국면이든 분산투자가 기본 원칙이라고 강조한다. [달리오 개인 이력] 12세 때 300달러로 노스이스트항공 주식을 사 3배로 불린 일화가 소개되며, 브리지워터를 세계 최대 헤지펀드 중 하나로 키운 인물로 소개된다. [예측 성격] 영상 전반의 전망은 장기 구조적 경고이며, 1~3개월 단위의 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
if you've been paying attention to the financial markets you know that right now is really weird and right now something has just recently happened which is kind of interesting you see ray dalio the billionaire head fund manager and philanthropist who served as a co-chief investment officer at bridgewater associates since 1985 has been making some really interesting moves with the market as we know so there's two or three main things i want to cover in this video because as a person who's in the financial markets as a subscriber or just someone who's watching by you definitely want to pay attention to these because what the rich are doing you definitely want to make sure that you're also doing too so what has ray dalio been doing that has caught my eye so one move that ray dalio has recently done well let's not say ray dalio himself because that would just be fake news well ray dalio's investment firm bridgewater investments are basically going to put well they have put 400 million dollars in gold now when they did this it was very interesting because you had a lot of people who instantly saw this news and thought well this means that gold is probably right now the best asset class since we're seeing a surge in price of the gold and if you're also seeing billionaires start to move majority of their capital into this asset you would think that this is an asset that you would want to hold however if we put things into perspective this isn't as crazy as it seems although yes on paper they invested 400 million us dollars into gold this isn't that crazy because if we look at bridgewater's actual bond you can see that bridgewater actually manages 160 billion dollars in assets so that means that that's actually just a very very small amount in fact that's not even a lot of their money if we're being honest so that just means that they're testing the waters to see whether market is actually going and this doesn't mean that they're actually hedging with gold this just means that for example someone who makes 100k a year that means they probably bought like 300 worth of gold so i wouldn't panic and think that gold is of course the best asset to have right now but at the end of the day it is always good to have a precious metal with a finite resource to try and protect you against some of the inflation currently being experienced right now by the federal reserve continuing to print absurd amounts of money in addition to this in the investing game the rules may no longer apply additionally rey dalio warns that the federal reserve has actually artificially propped up the markets with traditional valuation metrics no longer telling the entire story and he thinks there's a risk that the us dollar will be displaced as the global reserve currency he said the capital markets are not free markets allocating resources in the traditional ways the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks in coordination with the central government even though he believes that the unprecedented stimulus was justified he argues that these actions have consequences including an explosion of central bank's balance sheets as well as price to earnings ratios that exceed 40.
so what should investors do dalio recommends investors diversify portfolios across different asset classes that tend to hold up well regardless of the economic landscape and never tried to time the market i mean ray dalio does know his stuff since his first investment at the age of 12 when he purchased 300 worth of northeast airline shares and tripled his money he's actually honed his craft he even went on to found one of the largest hedge funds in the world and it's got around 160 billion dollars worth of earnings so let's be honest if we're gonna listen to someone it's gotta be him and i'm not gonna lie right now advice is very very speculative considering we haven't really treaded on these waters before because even though a global pandemic has happened before it hasn't happened under the circumstances on which we're seeing now the federal reserve hasn't ever had to print so much money in such a short amount of time in response to a global pandemic before and we haven't seen them pull out such measures in order to protect or prop up the stock market which to be honest isn't really based on real valuations of the companies anymore i mean tesla shares broke two thousand dollars already and the company doesn't really make that much money so right now are we in a bubble it's very difficult to say but what i would say is that whatever we are in whether it be a bubble whether it be a recession whether it be just before the next economic collapse i would say definitely diversify your portfolio if you haven't already this is something that not only ray dalio has said but something that is a staple rule when it does come to investing and managing your assets you never want to be over leveraged in a position because if one of your assets contains 90 of your portfolio you will be in a sticky situation if that asset does underperform you
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