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sav educate and teach and put this in context so call me at 1-800-733cmc or tweet me at jim cramer a vaccine a vaccine my kingdom for a vaccine yep if you want to understand this market including today the dow tumbled 354 points s p lost one point two three percent and then as i plunge the hideous two point two nine percent with many big cap tech stocks taken on the chin you have to recognize that things will never be the same in this country or around the world until we get a vaccine the pandemic not the fed they know nothing not the election is the most important driver of the stock prices that's right most important are stock prices lately it's feeling very binary we get a vaccine sooner than expected we save the economy but if the process drags on and we don't have any stimulus we're going to need to adjust the new slow to no growth huddle at home normal therefore our fate is in the hands of a few dozen companies with a disney array of clinical trials and whoever gets there first is going to make a lot of money for shareholders and that's why we at cnbc decided to do something new that no one else has attempted we surveyed 92 drug analysts and public health officials the best we could find state and local level to handicap the chances of each of the main players now we don't bet on we don't at least like to bet on life-threatening situations i mean this is a terrible disease but and this is an important but we are asked over and over again who is really in the lead these are lives not horses but this does per se resemble handicapping because we are judging not just vaccines but stocks too that's our business so coming in first with the support of 21 respondents it's the oxford university astrazeneca vaccine the one we just read about in that british publication lancet on monday we know it got an excellent safety profile and several qualities that could lead to immunity second was thai with moderna and the pfizer bioentech vaccine they both got 19 votes third is canned sino biologics that's the chinese vaccine company eight votes after that johnson johnson nova vacs and the joint team of sanofi and glaxosmithkline each got seven votes merck and cyanovac got six sign of farm in curavac we're next with five inovio and medicago each got four now lenovo also earned an important distinction and it's a dubious one it's the honor of being the company least likely to bring its vaccine candidate to market at least according to the 92 experts we consulted they voted inovio off the island what about covent treatments not vaccine betrays well that's another closely contested race gileads and first with 17 votes remember they own rendez ram desavier which has been very effective in cutting short hospital stays followed by regeneron with tremendous ebola experience and second eli lillian privately held abcella in third roche and fourth bringing up the rear there's viewer biotech and glaxosmithkline now the more i dig into the medical research the more i realize that a vaccine is essential if coving is really as virulent as the experts say you better pray one of these injections works because that's the only way we beat it for good and this grim reaper flu is going to make a vicious comeback in the fall something you don't want to think about on a day when our nation have one of its biggest number of covid19 hospitalizations today yes that's right many of the doctors i deal with are very concerned about the fall i also realized something else the race for a vaccine might have more than one winner we may need to take several shots at this thing i could even it could even be like the flu where there's a new vaccine every year or a series of flu shots to meet it with that in mind how do we take advantage of this poll again the only one that i've seen okay maybe that's in bad taste but my job is to help try to satisfy your needs to to make money it's what you want so how do we figure out what's going to happen in this race for the vaccine okay what i find most interesting about our survey is that the stage of testing doesn't seem to matter much at all for example novavax right it just got a 1.6 billion dollar commitment from the government to complete their test and scale up manufacturing they start phase three trials in the fourth quarter yet novovax is tied with j which hasn't even started human trials that they're about to and they've got do have massive scale to build out billion vaccines as well as sanofi glaxo that's a shotgun marriage which goes into human trials in september i think the excitement about the astrazeneca oxford vaccine makes a ton of sense i know many people who went into that trial because in 30 000 people because the initial results were so promising in a smaller group even though the stock has been crushed since the data came out on monday why did people sell the news well i think the expectations got out of control buyers seem to have wanted some sort of miracle instead they got something very positive but still within the bounce of reason the thing about vaccines as opposed to actual cures is that the fda will never just stop the trials and preemptively declare a winner which sometimes happens with regular drugs testing a vaccine takes time because the only way to be sure it works is you give it to thousands of people and then you wait to see if they get sick i mean there's no real way to accelerate that process but even though we can't really speed this thing up i like astrazeneca's stock here down nearly 10 points from its high with a 3.4 yield and more importantly an excellent anti-cancer franchise that's worth a great deal next one's tough i used to be a huge fan of modernism you know that because they have an exciting ai powered approach to drug development but then the company revealed some positive data on its covet vaccine right at this time as executives dumped the stock and it left a bad taste in my mouth i understand that those execs had cell plans in place you can do that with the sec but as someone who's both created and used cell plants myself i can tell you they should have been cancelled going into what was obviously going to be a period of heightened scrutiny yes i think modernists become too promotional too quick to praise its own work off a very small sample size which is odd because they've never actually produced a vaccine before now i did love this stock in the 20s and 30s and in the 40s and even the 50s but up here at 75 oh and the survey was taken before the company lost an important patent contest to arrival company just now the authoritative stat publication said this afternoon that the patent decision could delay the company's progress on the vaccine or cut into the company's profits if it succeeds i now say no thank you by contrast pfizer's partner with this german bio end tech and they've done by that trades here and they've been remarkably non-promotional about the relative success biointex stock is too binary for me they don't have enough other shots on goal but pfizer has a portfolio of decent albeit boring drugs and while there's nothing huge in the pipeline the company's got very deep pockets so if their vaccine doesn't win they can always make some very exciting acquisitions like modern advisors reach phase three the home stretch and it just got 1.95 billion from the us government to produce the vaccine that's well in the first 100 million doses seems fair i can't say much about ken cynobiologics it's chinese the only chinese stock i'm going to recommend is alibaba because the prc stock market doesn't have enough regulations enforcing transparency but let's talk about the three vaccines that are tied with seven votes j and j novovax and the san and the sanofi glaxo team up and we've had all these uh teams on i think the sanofi glaxo candidate has great possibilities because both companies have excellent vaccine divisions though they are late to the party novovax's ultra high risk ultra high reward it's a total long shot that's trading like it already won why because it got a 1.6 billion dollar commitment from the president's operation warp speed initiative well it's disconcerting that people think that they are in the poll position which leads me to my favorite johnson johnson i'm hearing nothing but good things about the trial even has only now gotten to phase one more importantly aside from kova j j is the best pipeline of these drug companies their vaccine could fail and the stock may not even go down that's how cheap this thing is i think it's a buy right here my chapel trust us a big position in it there's not much to say about the others i like regeneron for its cova treatment but i like it even more for its non-coveted drugs including a surprisingly strong oncology portfolio that no one's talking about as for novio the handicappers were spoken and they say sell the bottom line we will revisit this race as we get closer to the finish line but the bottom line if you want to make an informed wager or at least invest on the vaccine stocks i think astrazeneca has the most promising formulation however j j is the best stock because it's inexpensive and it's got so much else going if it turns out to be a loser in the covid19 vaccine race for a cure or at least immunit cre
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