저자: DanIves,EdLee,MikeSani · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 2020년 2분기 실적 발표 직후 CNBC 패널 토론. 실적은 인도량과 영업이익 모두 컨센서스를 상회해 시장에 긍정적으로 평가됨. Dan Ives는 이익 서프라이즈를 '입이 떡 벌어지는' 수준으로 평가하고 강세 시나리오($2,000 상향)와 S&P500 편입 가능성을 언급. 중국 공장 수익성이 미국·유럽보다 10~15% 높고 비용 절감이 핵심 동력이라고 설명. 규제 크레딧 매각 수익은 일부 기여 요인으로 봄. Ed Lee는 테슬라가 성숙한 일반 자동차 회사로 변하고 있어 자율주행 등 기대 서사는 약해졌다고 비판적 시각 제시. 긍정적 잉여현금흐름 확보는 인정. Mike Sani는 주가가 올해 4배 상승한 반면 인도량 전망은 정체돼 있어 12개월 강세 논리는 약하다고 지적. 장기 자율주행·소프트웨어 사업 가치가 핵심이며, 단기 주가는 지나치게 과열됐다고 평가. 규제 크레딧 매각과 비용 절감이 장기 투자 대신 사업 투자 축소 때문인지 의문 제기. 패널 전원은 실적의 수익성 추세가 지속되는지가 핵심이며, 일회성인지 추세인지 확인이 필요하다는 데 공감. 테슬라 관련 단기 방향 예측은 발언자별로 엇갈림. Dan Ives는 상승 쪽, Mike Sani는 단기 상승 근거 부족으로 하락·보수적 입장.
다듬은 글
joins us of Wedbush Securities and Ed Lee of the New York Times. Also a CNBC contributor. Mike Sani still with us as well. Dan, first impressions on on what looks to be a better number confirming the deliveries, a beat on the bottom and topline, importantly on the bottom line where they can go into the S&P if that's voted on.
This is a jaw-dropper in terms of the level of profits. I think it just shows the trajectory now. You know, this really puts massive fuel in the tank of the bulls. And this is really an Aaron Judge like home run quarter combined with the deliveries. This is a Teflon like story. It's all about China.
I think that's what $400 a share. And I think now $2,000 bull case now could get hit given what we're seeing on the bottom line and it looks like S&P 500 as a new member. Edley, what what stands out for you on this and what will you be looking out for on on the earnings call? I mean, I'm looking for I think it to really hit their half a million target for the year.
They say they they are um all indications are they're going to I mean, it's a much more mature company. Uh it's much more disciplined. Uh they're hitting their targets or they're exceeding their targets. They're profitable. Uh they're they're probably going to be in the S&P 500. So, there's going to be more investors in it.
I'm going to be a little kind of counterintuitive here. I mean a big part of the the promise is sort of Tesla being more than just a car company. Everything it's shown now is that it is just a regular car company. I mean where is the self-driving? Where is you know we need more charging stations period.
You know we're going to see something more about the the battery factory of port but you know in general I have yet to see I mean there was this narrative around it being sort of the the far future. It's the near future now right? So the closer they get to being a regular car company in a weird way the less interesting they are.
I mean, positive free cash flow. Dan, where where is the big profit surprise coming from? Well, I think it's coming from two areas. One, China. I think profitability on those cards are 10 to 15% higher than in the US and Europe. And they've cut some significant costs. And I think that's really the big difference.
That's the fundamental driver here because it's not just about the deliveries. It's what you're seeing from a profitability perspective. How quickly could they get to 2025 dollars of earnings power? That's the question. But this was for a bull. I mean, this was sort of a best case in terms of what we saw on the profit side.
Mike Sani, what's the bull case for this stock over the next 12 months? Uh, well, over the next 12 months, I to be honest with you, I don't think you you have a bull case if you're only looking at the next 12 months because the stock has quadrupled this year while the deliveries for this year are still are static, right?
They haven't said they're going to massively deliver more cars this year than we thought they were going to 7 months ago. It's much more about the larger future and the market share ultimately that EVs and Tesla's uh cars specifically can get. And then of course the longer term story has to be autonomous driving and the software uh push uh that basically could transform the economics of this business.
It really is at a price of $1,600 a share about that distant future in my opinion. uh 500,000 vehicles what they're talking about this year way back a few years ago that was supposed to be 2018's total they pushed it off to 2020 they're going to do 2020 so they're delivering on it as I mentioned earlier people are focusing on the fact that they sold these regulatory credits and they have reduced expenses the question is are they reducing just the investment in the business as opposed to just operating stuff so not to sort of you know drag on the uh on the company and its performance here but it has to be viewed in the context of a stock that's just gotten completely completely unhinged to the upside in the short term.
The the release mentions the higher re uh regulatory credit revenue as as one of the factors driving it. Dan, h how do we think about that in terms of the contribution and what that is? Yeah, that's definitely a talent that they have a few talents and that's going to be something that they're seeing from a credit perspective.
They also have some benefits overseas and that's something that's going to be on the call. But as Mike and Ed talked about, I do think the key here is 450,000 now I think looks in the cards potentially for deliveries comes down to that profitability trajectory. Is this one time or what does it look like going forward?
If it's a trajectory then this is sort of what I view as a paradigm changer in the Tesla story. Dan and Ed, we'll have to leave it there. Thank you both very much.
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