저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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중국 투자는 중립이 아니라 확률분포로 봐야 하며, 장기적으로 포트폴리오에 의미 있는 비중을 담아야 한다는 주장 핵심 주장: 중국은 세계 2위 경제이며 장기적으로 긍정적으로 보지만, 정치·이념·지정학 리스크로 결과 범위가 매우 넓음 근거: 중국을 경제적 청소년기로 비유하며 최고의 시기가 앞에 있다고 봄. 다만 규제·지정학 리스크로 인한 변동성은 불가피 비중: 2% 수준은 의미 없는 비중이라고 지적. 장기 긍정 시 중국 비중은 충분해야 함 과거 경험: 중국 주식·중국 NPL·중국 채권 등에 장기 투자해 온 경험 언급. '투자 불가(uninvestable)'라는 평가가 나오면 오히려 저평가 가능성을 떠올린다고 함 투자 방법: 일반 투자자는 개별 종목보다 인덱스펀드·ETF·액티브 펀드 등 타인을 통해 투자하는 것이 적절. 전문가가 아니라면 잘 모르는 국가·기업에 직접 베팅하지 말 것 출연자 전망: 중국에 대해 장기 긍정이나 단기 방향 예측은 없음. 중국의 지정학적 행보가 목표 달성의 전제라고 봄
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trainer in a sense is an interesting example of something where you talk about how you always like to view the future as a probability distribution right and I and I I wondered if you could talk about if you look at China how you say well I don't really know but let me let me lay out this range of probabilities like how how would you think about China in that kind of nuanced way where you're looking at at both the dangers and and the promise of the situation and kind of trying to assign probabilities yes well uh you know uh one of my heroes was Peter Bernstein the the investment philosopher who died around 09 I believe and he wrote a memo which is one of the greatest things I ever read called can can can we reduce risk can risk be reduced to a number and one of the things in there he is he said there's a range we don't know where the answer is going to fall within the range sometimes we don't know the extent of the range China is the range is enormous because we're dealing with Cosmic questions and and by the way not we think we can do economic analysis or financial analysis these are not economic or financial questions these are political ideological social questions uh and um so but it's an important question because China is the second biggest economy in the world and I have friends who can tell me the date on which it will become the biggest economy in the world uh and uh you know I've always thought you should have money invested in China and you know one of the things I've seen over my years in this business is something comes up whether it be index funds or Emerging Markets or something like that and and people say oh we got that covered I got two percent in that you know if it's important two percent is not enough uh it won't move the needle now people are happy with two percent because they at least if if it then goes on to quadruple they can say I participated they don't have to kick themselves uh but it's not enough and and uh so if China is going to become the world's biggest economy and if things work out in a positive way in the long run two percent in China is not enough in my opinion and as you say we've had uh We've we've had investments in Chinese equities uh we've been long-term investors in in Chinese npls uh and and where investors in Chinese credits debts um how do you dope it out not easy uh on the one hand you do have the economic strengths size and growth potential on the other hand you have the question of how will China behave towards its citizens its businesses and towards the rest of the world and so in the last six months uh or so we've seen people say uh China is not investable that's the word uninvestable now my ears perk up when I hear that because if if nothing else it introduces the possibility that China is cheap by definition nothing that people describe as uninvestable uh can be uh born Aloft on the Winds of of uh of uh Federation uh it it it's not overpriced maybe it's underpriced maybe it's something one should do uh I'm not an expert in China when I go to China and they always say to me well what do you think about China I said why are you asking me you live here uh but um it has been my view for the last half a dozen years what I tell people is that uh uh Europe and Japan are economic senior citizens not much vitality the US is a mature economic adult uh doing fine but uh I would argue that the best decades are behind us China is an economic adolescent uh and if you've ever had a national lesson in your house as I have then you know it can be tempestuous and there are ups and downs but you also know that the adolescent's best decades lie ahead and I describe China as an adolescent economically speaking and um this is an example of the ups and downs that I was talking about now I didn't Envision anything in particular but you know when they when they come down on for-profit education uh Etc and and when the world worries about them geopolitically and militarily that's what we're talking about here when you get into the uh into the the adolescents and the new new things uh stuff can happen I happen to be positive on China you know by the way just like you couldn't prove the day after the Lehman bankruptcy that the financial system was not going to melt down you can't prove what China's future holds I happen to believe that China wants to be a member of the world community and that uh Shanghai for example wants to be one of the world's centers of of Finance and it would take a great leap of the imagination to think that those goals can be achieved if China does some of the geopolitical things people are afraid of them doing so you're a regular investor who doesn't have your advantages of a team based in Hong Kong and a team in Shanghai and the ability to invest in you know toxic property that that may be selling incredibly cheap for regular people like me it's the smart thing just to buy an index fund that invests in China or in China South Korea India or like what would be the smart kind of long-term play if you just wanted to talk something away especially here in 2022 when as Andrew points out uh readily available quantitative information about the present cannot be the road to Superior performance most people should invest well first of all they should invest through others whether it's an index fund an ETF or an actively matched account you know we don't do our own uh legal work dental work medical work uh most of we don't fix our own cars uh why should we manage our own money why should we believe that we have the ability as part-timers to do that so the amateur the uh should basically pick funds and managers in my opinions and as you say you may be or you want to go into a global fund uh that that includes China under their Charter uh that's what that's what I think they should do uh and um it's a professionals so should think twice before dabbling in areas they don't know about uh and if I were a professional and I wanted to uh what would you say uh try a punt uh on China uh I would go into a fund I wouldn't start picking companies I don't know anything about in a country I don't know anything about uh again man has to know his limitations
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