저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 공포에 휘둘리지 말고 장기 보유하라는 메시지로, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다. 과거 공포 사례: 1950년대 대공황 우려, 핵전쟁 공포, 석유 가격 급등(4달러→40달러) 및 100달러 전망, LDC 부채, 일본 붕괴론 등이 있었지만 시장은 장기적으로 상승했다고 설명했다. 시장 하락 빈도: 96년간 10% 이상 하락 53회(약 2년에 1회), 25% 이상 하락 15회(약 6년에 1회)가 있었으나 장기적으로 시장은 상승했다고 강조했다. 단기 예측 부정: 1987년 10월 폭락 당시 경험을 언급하며 단기 방향은 전혀 알 수 없다고 말했다. 금리 예측 역시 맞히기 어렵다고 언급했다. 투자 조언: 장기 보유를 강조하며 기업 실적이 중요하고 10~30년 후에는 주가가 훨씬 높을 것이라는 장기 견해를 밝혔다. 해외주식: 해외 기업은 분석 커버리지가 적어 저평가 종목이 많을 수 있다며 해외주식 검토 가치를 언급했다.
다듬은 글
always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to do well in the stock market questions whether you have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about I grew up I went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade in the 50s this is big Theory that the Depression was caused by a stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of Americans own stocks in 29.
we have this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market the economy went down the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on we had this was only one of about eight depressions since 1850.
but people in the people thought the only reason we got the Depression was World War II and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a Great Depression I never understood that adjective in front of depression you ought to be crummy depression or bad depression but it's a Great Depression I never quite quite understood that one the uh so people aren't buying stocks in the 50s because they thought another Great Depression is going to happen in addition people were very scared about nuclear warheads and nuclear war in the 50s people are building Fallout shelters stocking canned goods there's something about going to Vermont building a fallout shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy Minnesota Mining or you don't buy you some Garden I may just the syllogism just doesn't work out the gym buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks didn't seem to work out that way you know and I remember in the 50s I mean I remember literally in classes I was in elementary school in the 50s and they would come in they'd have one of these Airaid drills somebody yell a hat and they'd blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then I says I don't think this is going to do a lot of good you know yeah but people are worried about a depression in nuclear war in the 50s and then I mean the WarHeads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s now one of these stand countries you know these kakistan and gazakistan all these stand guys that have spun off these these free even building spin-offs from the Soviet Union the uh they didn't lead it was a code deal with somebody else I Pullman Sachs I think they're on the left side of them the uh uh every one of these little countries doesn't have warheads to blow the wall up 88 times right who's built a fallout shelter you know we stopped worrying about it I mean there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this century the stock market except for the 80s only slightly better these are only slightly better people they expect a lot we had an okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and the stock market was terrific do you remember when oil went from four to 40.
remember that period oil went from 4 to 40. and the experts said it was gonna go to 100 and all the countries of the world would go bankrupt and then in the big Banks you know bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you're going to wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well I'm going to oil went from 4 to 40 and the experts said it was gonna go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's going to go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh I remember when the money supply was going too fast and he said we're gonna have a depression then it was going too slow we have a depression remember the LDC debt remember the LDC debt all the banks our banks were very smart they land all their net worth to Zimbabwe and Botswana and beauva Solana and all these countries Chile a lot of countries they can't pronounce is Chase Manhattan and chemical it manufactures Hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country it's like I just found out the other day that the term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged since I was laterally challenged yeah but these are LDC debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we're gonna have a depression in the Middle East what's going on the world remember that one The Mid Eastern on the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and Market crashing would have depression then Japan was going to worry about that one Japan was kept all the assets and they were going to buy our bonds and we're gonna have a depression within three years the Nick nikai dialogue gone from 40 000 to sixteen thousand the banking systems in trouble and people said Japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression I mean people had on their prayer list the end of the day they eliminate crippled children and Mother Teresa they're praying for Japan I mean you know a country with a 15 savings rate you know it's a bizarre you know commercial real estate global warming uh you know and I think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things I think it's very viable I think while younger people are better investors is they're not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children I think if you don't have any kids you got to rent some kids for the weekend you know get a seven-year-old and ask him if he knows about the money supply you know how fast it's grown ask him he knows about the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape of the yield curve or that we're 48.3 months into the eggnog recovery and the average recoveries last 52.3 books you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that a-rolls have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from major holes the more you away from 11 rolls the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend the uh in fact 1955 to 1985.
the stock market went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on Mondays so it's down it was there for up 1800 on non-mundies it wasn't an accident the stock market went on October the 1987 was a Monday people over the weekend become economists in portfolio strategies I mean they're both they take their lunch on the way to work you know at the fact I knew very well the market was going down in October of 1987.
uh Dave Elson remembers who that is my first vacation it was going to take in six years and we decided to go to Ireland and uh I'm going to State all these little cottages and play golf and I left on Thursday after the close the trailer markers down 55 points which wasn't a good start but it was down 55 points and we got over there and because of the time zone we were able to do what we want to do and get down to Cork and called in the market was down about 118.
I said to Carolyn if the market goes down on Monday we better go back but we're already here so uh miles will stay for the weekend so as you know the Mark went down 508 on Monday so I flew home because if I find it gone for I think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and I uh it was a Trend here is not positive like I could do something about it you know the uh but there's time when they called they wanted to say what's something's doing right now well he's on the tenth hole he's even part of the front nine but you know he's in a trap right now this could be a double bow this could be a quadruple bogey right here could could blow the entire front nine right here you know this is not what they wanted to hear you know it took uh so I have no idea when the Market's gonna go down and uh no idea when it's gonna go up I'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago a while ago it's eight thousand uh I had no idea about this uh very surprising me but I'll guarantee you the Mark will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher than 25 years what it's gonna do next one or two years I don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in Palm Springs somewhere you know they've made a billion dollars or if they know anything about interest rates there's an interest rates if you can be right five times in a row and ten Grand you can have two billion it's not that many people with two billion there's a lot of people predicting interest rates do you ever think about that one yeah just five times right in around 10 grand 2 billion it uh if you're right sometimes a row you can have the GNP of you know the United Kingdom you know it's a big number at the uh so I don't worry about that I know we've had uh 96 years of century and the Market's Fallen 53 times I've had 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1-5 have been 25 percent more so 15 and 96 years about once every six years the market Falls 25 more that's what we call a bear Market you know you know that and it's going to happen I don't care when it's going to happen I would love to know obviously it'll be very useful to know when it's gonna happen it doesn't make any difference to me corporate problems me a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what I deal with I'll be glad to answer your questions it's great to enjoyed it and uh you want to start the questions they don't get the question I'll read the calendar of offerings for Freeman Billings for the next month do you like International stocks uh question is I always I found I was better overseas than I was domestic abuse there's just less coverage there's less people following these companies so I think my big Theory and I think it's valid if you look at 10 companies you'll find one that's mispriced you look at 20 you'll find two if you look at 100 you'll find 10.
the person that turns over the most rocks wins the game overseas the numbers are much better they're just not that much coverage so I think International stocks are definitely worth looking at
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