저자: Investing Simplified · 외국인
다듬은 글
now the place like Berkshire Hathaway or even the Daily Journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened and the answer is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about can soup and Aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dream we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like Jen Kramer pretends it tends to have and we always realized that we worked very hard we can find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process and if you would ask Warren Buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just followed Warren's best idea you would find it work beautifully but he was trying to know a whole he would give you one or two stocks he had more limited ambitions I had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a Pioneer and he came out to Iowa with no money but Youth and health and took it away from the Indians he fought in the black guy he was a captain in the Blackhawk Wars and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town on the bank and and I'm highly regarded a huge family and a very happy life and and he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that blacktop soil created a modern Rich civilization in some of the best land in the world his attitude was that a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you live to be about 90.
and the trick in coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren around him all summer and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew Grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first when I was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have at a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they could know a million things and that and of course the result is almost nobody cannot perform an index whereas I sit here with my Daily Journal stock my Berkshire Hathaway stock my Holdings at Lulu's Asian fun my Costco stock and of course I'm out performing everybody and I'm 95 years old I probably never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them the the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing and you want the standard result and not be embarrassed of course you're going to write a diversify nobody's entitled to a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four and but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a diversification an idiot could diversify a portfolio and or a computer for that matter and and but the whole trick of the game is to have have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough and what the hell do you care you own three Securities and JP Morgan Chase owns a hundred you know it's what's wrong with owning a few securities well I know he says if you lived in a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best Enterprises in the town isn't that Diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that Fortune's formula which got so famous which was a formula to tell people how much to bet on each transaction if you had an edge and of course the bigger your Edge the more close the transaction was to a certain winner the more you should bet and of course there's mathematics behind it but of course it's true it's perfectly possible by by only one thing because the opportunity is so great and such a saint or only two or three so the whole idea of diversification when you're looking for excellence is totally ridiculous it doesn't work it gives you an impossible task what fun is it to do an impossible task over and over again I find it agony I just who would want to do it and and I don't see why my father had a client he was a lawyer in Omaha he had a client whose husband have a little Soap Company and the guy died and my father sold the Soap Company this woman was one of the richest people in town in the middle of depression and what she had was a little Soap Company and a biggest mansion on my husband's neighborhood now he sold this old company she had a mansion in the best neighborhood and three hundred thousand dollars but three hundred thousand dollars in 1930 something was an incredible amount of money a little hamburger with a nickel a big hamburger was a dime and the all-you-can-eat Cafe in Omaha would feed you all you need to stay alive for two bits a day I mean 300 000.
well she didn't hire an investment counselor if you knew anything he's a wonderful old woman and she just took that and she divided into five chunks and she bought five stocks I remember three of them because I probated her estate and it was one almost General Electric one was Dow one was Dupont I forget the other two and she never changed those stocks she never paid an advisor she never heard anything and she bought some invisible bonds he never spent her income and she bought some of his Obama from time to time with the Animals by the time she died in the 50s she had a million and a half dollars no costs no expenses and I said how did you decide to do that and she said well she said I thought electricity and chemistry were the coming things you just jumped it all in and sat on her ass I always like that little one my kind of a girl and but it's rare you know but if you stop to think about it think of holy expanse and palabber that she didn't have to listen to and All the Troubles she avoided and zero costs and of course but people don't realize because they're so mathematically illiterate is if you make five percent and pay two of it to your advisors you're not losing 40 a year future you're losing 90 because over a long period of time that little difference because the 90 disadvantage to you so it's hugely important for somebody who's a long-term holder not to be paying a big annual toll out of the performance and of course there are a few Big Time advisors now are using indexation very heavily and of course they're prospering mightily and of course every time they get somebody it's just Agony for the rest of the investment counseling business and is a very serious problem and I think these people who are used to winning is the old-time value investors who are now just quitting the profession that's a very understandable thing to do I I regard it as more noble and staying in well you know playing along with the denial it's an interesting problem you can see I'm trying not trying to make your morning yes I'm just trying to describe things the way they are this business why does Lee Lewis succeed so mightily well partly he's sort of a Chinese Warren Buffett that really helps and and partly he's fishing in China not in this Uber searched over popular and highly competitive American market and they're still pockets of ignorance and lassitude in China that gave him some unusual opportunities that first rule in fishing has always been fish where the fish are and the second rule of fishing has always been don't forget rule number one and and Lilo just went where the fishing was good and the rest of us are like cod fishermen are trying to catch cod with a fisherman fished out it doesn't matter how much you work when there's that much competition every little idea I see in the world some are going after I sat once in an investment committee at the University of Michigan and then came one of their successful investors located in London and what had this investor done in London he decided to invest in some Saharan Africa and the only marginal Securities were a few banks that traded in the bank sheets so he would buy very tiny qualities of these Banks and every time some poor person got tired of having the money in the mattress and put it in a bank he did a little better and of course he made a lot of money he nobody else was investing in little tiny banks in Africa but the niche was soon failed what the hell do you do with her uncle or after you put your class money in a bunch of little tiny banks in sub-Saharan Africa the niche gets filled quickly and I and how many wonderful niches are there going to be when some guy in London is buying all these tiny little Bank stocks in Africa it's hard
Comments 0