Fisher Investments’ Founder, Ken Fisher’s Outlook on Emerging Markets in 2023

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결론: 신흥국은 하나의 시장이 아니며 앞으로도 선진국·미국 대형 성장주에 비해 부진(laggard)할 것으로 본다. 신흥국의 특징: 국가별로 서로 상관관계가 낮고 각자 다른 방향으로 움직인다. 과거 BRICs처럼 함께 움직이는 개념은 더 이상 유효하지 않다. 시가총액 구조: 대부분 신흥국은 상위 소수 대형주가 지수를 지배하며, 그 기업들은 통신·전력·가스·수도 같은 방어적 공익주인 경우가 많다. 따라서 성장 기대감이 크지 않다. 중국: 과거에는 기술주가 큰 비중이었지만 최근 성과가 부진하다. 경제성장률은 연 약 6.5%로 여전히 성장 중이나 둔화되고 있고 기대치도 낮다. 중국 빅테크와 비중국 글로벌 빅테크 간 격차가 크다. 대만처럼 기술이 중요한 일부 예외는 있다. 성장주: 올해 주목받는 'Magnificent Seven'만이 아니라 성장이 확실한 고품질 대형 성장주 전반이 시장을 이끈다. 미국 외 영역에서는 고급 명품 등 대형 소비재가 잘 나갔다. 전망: 신흥국은 회의론 단계에 머물러 있어 당분간 계속 뒤처질 것이다. 시장이 낙관론 단계로 넘어가 투자 기회를 찾기 시작할 때 변화가 생길 수 있으나 시점은 예측하기 어렵다. 리스크: 신흥국 전반에 대한 불신과 불확실성이 크다. 이 영상은 특정 한국 종목에 대한 언급이 없고 신흥국 전체에 대한 견해이다.

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01. so Emerging Markets really aren't what people think they are in numbers of ways so my Outlook on it may not be what you expect me to have first there is no such thing as the emerging market they're different they don't highly correlate with each other used to be though with the concept of the bricks running together and you remember that Brazil Russia India China the brics but they're all going their own different directions and have been for quite some time and I think you know that when we look at Emerging Markets with some exceptions they tend on a cap weighted basis which is the way the indexes are constructed that measure them they tend on a capillated basis overall in most countries not almost to be dominated by a few large stocks in most countries in the world and particularly in the land of the free and the home of the brave we're biased because we have the broadest and most diverse stock market in the world but when you Ripple through just a few countries you tend to get to where some place but took the five largest stocks not just dominate the market but often are worth more than all the rest of stocks put together and those in most Emerging Markets tend to not be anything other than defensive big often public utility type Telecom electric utility or electric and gas utility water big relatively defensive stocks therefore they don't have the oomph that people thought the stocks like that do tend to be dependent on over time irregularly how is the country growing in that country but the reality is they're not gee whiz growth these things now there's not a hundred percent uh truth to that for example China has benefited in years past from its technology sector being among its biggest stocks but even there now China's not been doing so well lately as I think you all know both economically it's growth rate is still growing it's contributing to Global GDP growth but at slower and slower rates year by year and including this year where it's you know growing in an ant been growing an annual rate of about six and a half percent it's expectations have not been high and Tech has not been what's been leading their tech stocks huge spread between the big Chinese tech stocks and the non-chinese big Global Tech stocks and there's a few other places where Tech is terribly important like particularly Taiwan uh in the world that isn't uh traditional you think of but the fact of the matter is for the most part Emerging Markets is lagging badly it'll continue to lag badly in my opinion because we've got a relatively slow growth economy with a lot of things people are still afraid of a lot of agitation and skepticism and therefore the things that lead the market are the ones that can actually have high confidence in their ability to grow not the companies that are smaller and more speculative and might grow the most but might not I'm talking about the huge high quality growth companies there's been a lot of discussion this year about the phrase uh that used to be you know there was the phrase the Fang stocks or sometimes the fan stocks but that this year there's been The Magnificent Seven in uh you know from the great uh Western uh flick but there's been a presume that it's the Magnificent Seven it is not the Magnificent Seven they are among a broader Universe of but not very broad high quality growth stocks where the growth is pretty assured uh outside Tech there's been the uh realm for example of high-end large consumer discretionary luxury stocks have done really well but it is that part that's leading the world and where there's more risk involved whereas lower quality whatever that means which includes most of Emerging Markets doesn't it it's a laggard market so you should continue to expect that to be when will that change I think and I can't predict exactly when that is in time it changes when we get to the point where we're no longer in the skepticism phase of the bull market and people start to look into optimism and think about where can they find Opportunities but right now it's a more limited World more with blinders on and that doesn't include uh being the right place for emerging markets or stocks