저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중간선거 해(3년차) 이후 하반기는 상반기보다 수익률이 낮지만 여전히 양호하며, 지금은 주식 보유가 나쁘지 않은 시기라는 주장. 중간선거 기적(Midterm Miracle): 10월 1일부터 9개월간이 전체 주식시장 역사에서 가장 꾸준히 수익을 낸 기간이라고 강조하며, 올해도 4분기부터 3분기 연속 상승해 S&P500이 상반기에 15% 넘게 올랐다고 설명. 중간선거 이후 하반기 데이터: 1925년 이후 대통령 임기 3년차 하반기는 약 80%의 해에서 플러스, 평균 수익률 약 7.5%로 상반기보다 낮음. 하반기 두 자릿수 마이너스는 1931년과 1987년 두 차례뿐이며, 하반기가 마이너스였던 최악의 경우도 -3.7% 수준이라 현재는 큰 위험 시기가 아니라고 봄. 원인 분석: 정치적 리스크 회피 해소 메커니즘. 1~2년차에 대형 법안이 몰리고 중간선거 이후 교착(gridlock)으로 입법이 잦아들어 기업의 계획 가능성이 높아짐. 이 효과는 생각보다 오래 지속된다고 언급. 4년차: 대통령 임기 4년차는 83%가 플러스이나 평균 수익률은 약 11%로 3년차보다 낮음. 시장 위험은 주로 1~2년차에 집중되어 있다고 봄. 전망 및 리스크: 하락 가능성은 있으나 확률은 낮으며, 큰 악재가 필요하다고 봄. 시장에서 많이 언급되는 공포 요인들은 오히려 실제보다 나쁘지 않게 드러나면 상승 재료가 된다고 주장. 6개월 전·9개월 전만큼 좋지는 않지만 여전히 강세장이므로 주식을 즐기라는 조언. 출연자 전망: 미국 주식시장 전반에 대해 단기 강세 유지 전망, 하반기 상승 확률 높음, 다만 상반기 대비 수익률 둔화 예상.
다듬은 글
so folks often focus on calendar years counter quarters I understand why uh and there's something to that the reality is we just had a great first half of the year and people have concerns about what will the second half be maybe if the first half was so good second half won't be as good so if you've been watching my videos in the past read my columns in the New York Post see other things that I put out on my Twitter feed or whatever uh you you know that I've made the point not just this time but before before and before and about every before years that the nine months again October 1st of a midterm election year is the most consistently profitable period in all of stock market history and I've pounded the table on that for a long time before this cycle and the fact is I coined a phrase for it a long time ago the midterm Miracle we had a great midterm miracle this time and the fourth quarter was positive last year starting the beginning of this bull market and then the next two quarters were similarly positive each of them running around seven percent little over so we end the first half up more than 15 percent on the s p 500.
and and that's a great first half of the year and it's a great conclusion to the midterm Miracle so what happens after a midterm miracle and on that we got a lot of data because we got history going back with really accurate data going back to 1925. and we can say that the back half of third years of president's terms the aftermath of midterm Miracle is not as positive as the first half first half positive 92 percent of all years but the back half positive about 80 percent and the average return in the back half isn't as good as in first half but on average it's about five and a half percent uh excuse me I misspoke myself it's about seven and a half percent about half of what you get in the first half half of the half but the fact is it's still pretty good and in fact going back to 1925 there have only been two periods where the back half was double digit negative 1 1931 going into the Great Depression and then two in the flash crash of 1987 arguably the fastest bear Market in history which it really isn't because the 2020 coveted bear Market was the fastest bear Market in history but it was the fastest bear Market in history for a long time and that time period in the 1931 time period don't look anything like this time period and other than that the back half has only ever been off of the six times ever that's back cap was negative the worst ever it was down 3.7 percent this is not a very dangerous time and why because the same thing that causes the midterm Miracle which is the shift from high political risk aversion in America as big legislations going through boom boom boom in the first two years of the president's term like we had in President Biden's presidency but before that and president Trump's presidency and before that in president uh Obama's presidency and then George W bush and then Bill Clinton Etc all big huge scary controversial legislation in modern American history uh goes through in the first two years and we all get freaked out by that and then the midterms bring in absolute or relative gridlock and that stops and the chatter and the political rhetoric keeps being but the actual legislation just quiets down which you may have noticed but it takes us a long time to adjust to the fact that you get stability for a few years you get relative quiet in your ability to plan and businesses love that so in in in in that reality the effect lingers longer I'm just going to go on a little further the fourth year of a president's term isn't nearly as good as the third year the third year has the miracle and the aftermath of the miracle but the fourth year president's terms been positive 83 percent histories in the history of the S P 500 and has lower average returns than the third year only a little over 11 percent but it's still pretty nice this is not a bad time most of the risk in the stock market in the United States and overseas because overseas tends to Ripple to what the U.S market does with a reasonably High correlation of most of the risk is in the first two years where you get a lot of big double-digit positives but you also get a lot of negative years in both the first and the second year we're not there now so my general advice is yes can we get downturn from here of course we can it's the odds of that high no it's low and it takes something big bad and that we're not all talking about to make that happen because if it's big and bad and we're all talking about sort of in price into the market now and if we're talking about all kinds of things people are afraid of that are false fear of a false factors always bullish when things turn out to be better than people feared because it was a false factor and that surprise is bullish so my general view is did a pretty good time to own stocks as good as six months ago no of course not is it as good as it was nine months ago no of course not but the reality is it's still pretty good time it's still a bull market and you should enjoy it foreign
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