저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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S&P500이 연말 목표 5400을 조기 돌파해 5500 부근이며 시장은 초기 멜트업 단계로 보인다. 기술주 밸류에이션 약 31배는 실적 주도 상승이라 과열 우려가 제한적이고, 엔비디아 등 AI 관련 수요는 부유한 기업 구매라 1990년대 말 통신장비 거품과 다르다는 취지다.
다듬은 글
let's bring in Ed yardeni he's from yardeni research obviously whether this Rally's gotten overextended nice to see you welcome back thank you very much Scot I mean you do point out that the tech sector at large has a valuation at near 31 times correct what do I take from that in terms of a strategy or how I should be thinking about this Market in the here and now well look I think uh there are clear signs that we are at in the early phase of a melt up and uh one one of the signs is that I was expecting to see the S&P 500 at 5400 by year end and here we are at 5500 it's basically mid year so you know I feel like uh the bull market is kind of left the hoof marks all over me because it's it's it's been so powerful same thing happened to me last year I thought we'd get to 4600 by the middle of the year we got there by the midle by the end of the year we got there by the middle of the year I would say that uh this is a melt up that is both earnings Leed and evaluation Leed if it was just all valuation LED i' be very concerned about too much speculative excesses but the reality is these tech stocks have moved on uh better than expected earnings and lots of news that suggest that the AI Revolution really is uh boosting their earnings sure but you know there there are valid questions that have been asked today yesterday and the days prior for NVIDIA for example whether it's over earning you've heard those words used um I I find it interesting that that you said we are in the early phases this looks like the early phase of a melt up some would look at the activity in Nvidia and say well that doesn't feel like the early phase of a melt up this feels like we're in you know the later Innings we're about to bring in the closer well I think uh the comparisons that are being made are to the late 1990s and we saw Cisco go straight up and then straight down uh back in those days there were a lot more excesses than there are today uh back in the late 1990s companies that made Telecom equipment many of them financed their their buyers in other words there was uh seller financing which is a very dangerous way to run a business uh there's also a lot of Dooms that didn't got a first round of financing bought a lot of equipment for the internet and then didn't get the second round of financing uh this time around nvidia's uh getting purchases from very very rich uh technology companies that can certainly afford to buy chips look I think the GPU chip is basically a fast computer and I think that uh while everybody's been trying to figure out what artificial intelligence is all about I think it's really uh big data on on speed and uh uh and on steroids and I think uh the whole idea that we're going to be moving and having some quantum computers I think gpus are the kind of the quantum computers so we' we've got a a technology here that we just saw Accenture uh Accenture uh for example um report that some of its earnings were boosted by uh by using AI I know everybody's going to claim that though Ed you know that let let me um but but the stock is up on legitimate news I mean they didn't just make that up no I I get you but I mean a lot of stocks are up over a significant period of time because if you know if you've mentioned AI like they're going to start saying that hamburgers are being made more efficient because we utilize Ai and that's helping the french fries be crispier hold on Scot you got some real companies announcing Some solid solid information I mean d is going to be providing some a AI related Technologies to uh Elon mosque and Elon Musk is going to put a lot of these Technologies together to build a supercomputer I know I mean he he has more often than not delivered on what he said he's going to do and I think he basically views gpus as a super for computers when they're all put together and I agree with that
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