저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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강세장 단기 랠리에서 수익 실현(일부 매도)의 중요성을 강조. 랠리 중 과도한 낙관을 경계하고 고평가 종목을 일부 정리하라고 조언. 2022년 사례를 들어 상승 중 분할 매도가 하락기 손실을 줄인다고 설명. 장기 투자자도 랠리 때는 일부 매도 필요. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
want to NBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. In a bull market there's nothing worse than watching the averages roar higher while your portfolio just sits there barely moving. It makes you feel like a complete dope, doesn't it? Like the stock market must be some sort of total shell game. But, really it just means you might be making a few basic mistakes.
That's why tonight I'm devoting the whole show to my playbook for taking advantage of a short-term rally, not to be confused with a so-called bear market rally, which is a bogus term people throw around whenever stocks go up at a time when the intelligentsia thinks they should be going down. Yep, I want to give you my game plan for handling short-term gains.
Now, I know what a lot of you are thinking. What kind of incompetent doofus needs a guide to make money in a rally? What's next? Is Cramer going to draw us a diagram explaining how to pick your nose? I mean, mad potty training? Uh should I just start reading picture books to children? Hey, we've already got the animal sound effects and Reading Rainbow's been off the air for more than a decade.
Maybe you feel like that the that's the same level of difficulty as making money when the stock market's on fire. Who needs help when the Dow's up hundreds of points in the day or even better during a multi-day rally, a real run, a buy fest? Do you really need my advice to help you deal with what a huge profits?
No, I'm not buying into that Biggie Smalls theory of investing, more money, more problems. But, knowing how to approach a quick run the right way can make you a better investor. And tonight I want to teach you some of the discipline that we demonstrate for the CNBC Investing Club all the time. Sure, everybody makes money in a big rally.
Can even feel like you're running your portfolio is running itself, doesn't it? Doesn't feel like that? But, I'm not here to talk about how to make the most money possible when the market's up big. Honestly, not that crucial. No, the most important lesson for dealing with a major short-term move higher is that you always have to work hard to prepare yourself for the future.
Otherwise, you'll end up letting some great opportunities to sell pass you by. THAT'S RIGHT. JUST AS WE can't give in to despair when the market's down, you certainly don't want to give in to euphoria and buy, buy, buy when the market's roaring. That's not when you should buy, it is when you should be taking some chips off the table.
Remember, you don't actually have a profit until you sell something. You aren't making money until the register is rung. And the idea that you should buy and hold through both the best of times and the worst of times has proven to be incredibly foolish with only very few exceptions. You need to use strength to lighten up, typically on stocks of companies with deteriorating fundamentals.
That's why I always insist you do your stock homework, because how else will you know what to unload? If you don't want to do it yourself, you know what? You can join our club, the CNBC Investing Club, and we do a lot of homework for you and with you. Why is it so hard to sell to strength? Good question.
Let me put it this way. Nobody wants to miss a rally. If you sold every stock you owned right before a huge up day, you'd feel like a stooge, not even Larry, Curly, or Moe. I mean, maybe they'd trade Shemp. Uh let's look at it another way. Say you're in stocks for the rally and you have massive gains, but you don't do anything.
You let them ride, so to speak, and then gradually or maybe not so gradually your stocks come back down. If you hang on for too long, if you let your gains ride until they evaporate, how is that any different from missing the entire rally? It isn't. Making lots of money on a great day or a great month or a great year is wonderful, but you can't view a rally as just a a day or a few days where your portfolio went up in value nothing more.
You need to see it as a time to take action. Even if you don't fancy yourself a trader and try not to time the market, even if you're like that, and I encourage you to be like that, you have to make an exception for some very good, but sharp up rallies. That's what I'm talking about. Just as you need to remember the good days during the sell-offs to keep yourself in the game, you need to remember the down days when the market's roaring to keep yourself tethered to reality.
Don't pass up an opportunity to trim your positions just because you're in stocks for the long haul as an investor, not a trader. I'm not telling you to blow out the positions, that's not what I'm saying. I'm talking about doing some of the trimming. Being an investor does not absolve you of the need to have judgment.
In other words, you should approach every rally with a grain of pessimism about what's coming next. That shouldn't be that hard. Think about this. Think about like the post-COVID meltdown in 2022. Not many wanted to sell in late 2021. It looked too great, right? Because we had an unbelievable bull market where buying the dips made you a fortune.
But, then the Fed declared war on inflation and those gains disappeared. If you had sold stocks gradually on the way up, as I told you to do, you were in much better shape as the market spent the next 11 months just getting obliterated. There's nothing wrong with feeling good about a rally. As someone with with some violent mood swings that happen to reach for that cheap scotch lying on a dirty linoleum floor when you get that really bad tape can tell you.
I recognize the value of celebrating your stocks when times are good. Euphoria is fine as long as it doesn't lead to complacency. Complacency is your nemesis. On a big up day you can be thrilled, you just don't don't forget that you're getting a terrific opportunity to lighten up on some of the stocks.
That's what short-term rallies are for. But, it's very easy to be swept away by the positivity. When the market's up and everybody's optimistic, the last thing people want to do is sell. Once you believe in the market again, when everything seems wonderful, how could you ever want to sell a stock? In theory, we all know we're supposed to buy low and sell high, but in practice that could be a lot harder than it sounds.
This is why we constantly teach you the discipline of selling into strength when you join the club, because we do it all the time with the charitable trust. We peel some off. Look, I know the feeling. You're sitting there watching the gains roll in and you you feel like selling some stock would be the most insane thing in the world.
Because what happens if the rally keeps going? Doesn't matter. We sell into strength, but we also never sell all at once. That way, timing is less of an issue. Take some off and if the rally holds up, well, you can sell more later. The name of the game is preparation. While there's no real way to prepare for a rally other than in by owning stocks, you can use a rally to prepare yourself for potential down days in the future.
It's a little counterintuitive, but it works. The best time to adjust your portfolio like that is is when stocks are going higher, not when they're going lower. Think about what you'll need if the market goes south and consider what you can do for your portfolio today, the day of the rally, that you couldn't do yesterday.
The simple answer is that you can sell part of a position, take advantage of higher prices. Remember, we never ever buy or sell all at once. That's not my style. But, on big up days you can sell in larger increments. In the rest of the show I'm going to go through the whole Mad Money rally playbook and explain what to sell, how to sell it, and why you're selling.
But, right now, here's the bottom line. When the stock market's had a big short-term short-term, don't get carried away by the optimism. Instead, keep your head on straight, check your emotions, focus on the long term, and think about ringing the register, especially on stocks that might be getting too high.
More on that later. Let's go to Michael in Pennsylvania, please. Michael. Hey Jim, booyah. This is Michael in Philly burbs. Um hey, I'm looking to sell my house uh for about 500,000 and I'm buying a new place for about 350. Okay. And by the time I'm all done, I'm probably going to have a hundred thousand dollars to invest for my retirement, which I have next to nothing.
That's terrific. I'm looking I'm looking to do what do I do short-term high growth and what do I do long-term dividends like uh Okay. Okay, now I I now my I got to got to tell you, I am in a in a different camp from most everybody else. I want to bet on my long-term life. I want to be able to say look, I feel I'm going to live long.
They all the longevity statistics very good. I think Larry Fink is greasing me on this. He's the great CEO of BlackRock. I think that you should be buying dividend stocks. I'm trying to urge you to not move into cash. Dividend stocks are a great way to protect yourself. Try to pick ones that are four, five percent and I think you'll do very well.
And you can do it yourself. I know you can build this. Steve in Kansas, please. Steve. Booyah, Jim. How you doing? I'm doing well, Steve. How about you? I'm great and thanks for taking my call. Hey Jim, by the way, Andy Reid says number three this year. I love Andy Reid. What can I say? Coach Reid's the best.
Coach Tammy Reid's unbelievable. What a great family. How can I help you? So Jim, uh I'm heading into retirement at the end of this year and I have been investing all my life. I'm 100% equities, no bonds. At the uh beginning of 2022, I moved about 40% of my portfolio into value. So, I'm a 60/40 split uh split growth value.
I've been big growth all of my life for the most part. What is your opinion about uh staying with that type of uh uh split, 60/40 value It it is uh right in my wheelhouse. I would not do a thing. I think you're doing it right. I was so afraid that you're going to say I'm thinking about switching 20 bro 20% bonds, 30% bonds.
The short-term rates are high. I I get that, but I like how your position because you're betting with your life, not against your life, and that's what I teach people to do. All right, when the stock market's had a big short-term run, please don't get carried away by your optimism. Instead, keep your head on straight, focus on the long term, but also think about ringing the register, especially on stocks that might be getting too high, and I know you own some that will be.
On Mad Money tonight, I'm giving you everything you need to know about market rallies use my Mad Money rally playbook. I'll show you how you can tell whether you're taking on too much risk, when you should use rallies to raise cash, and the things you should never do in a green tape. So, .
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