저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 금융 시스템 불안과 연준 정책 실패 우려 속에서 비트코인이 안전자산 및 대안 화폐로 부상할 것이라고 주장하며, 1~3개월 단기 가격 예측은 하지 않았다. [비트코인 가격 및 수요 논리] 비트코인이 급등해 매도 유인이 사라지면 통화정책 관리에 문제가 생길 수 있다고 언급했다. 3월 13일 약 1.9만 달러에서 약 2.8만 달러로 오른 것을 실베이뱅크 파산 후 안전자산 이동의 증거로 봤다. [금융 시스템 및 연준 평가] 연준이 시장 신호(신용부도스왑, 금리, 수익률곡선)보다 후행 지표를 본다고 비판했다. 최근 연준의 금리 인상을 위기 중 인상으로 지적하며 디플레이션과 거래상대방 위험이 인플레이션보다 큰 문제라고 주장했다. [통화 및 달러] 달러 가치는 상품·서비스 가격 기준으로는 상승 중이라고 설명했다. 다만 구체적인 원/달러 방향 예측은 없었다. [디지털 금 및 역사적 논리] 케인스학파 경제학자들이 비트코인의 존재를 부정했지만 비트코인이 존재한다는 점을 MRI 자기장 비유로 설명했다. 과거 금 사유화 금지(행정명령 6102호)와 비교했다. [주정부 채택 전망] 플로리다·텍사스 등 일부 주가 비트코인 거래 플랫폼이나 보유를 추진할 수 있다고 봤다. 이는 CBDC 반대 및 연방 금융 시스템 이탈 경로로 제시되었다. [출구 전략 및 시기] 미국 금융 시스템에서 비트코인으로의 이탈이 향후 수주에서 수년에 걸쳐 진행될 것이라고 전망했다. 90일 내 전개는 불가능하지 않다고 보았으나 타이밍 예측은 어렵다고 밝혔다. 연준이 7월에 금리를 인하할 수 있으니 그 전에 출구를 준비하라고 조언했다. [조건 및 리스크] 이 모든 전망은 개인 견해이며 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시했다. 금 등 다른 자산도 선택지로 언급했다.
다듬은 글
I've been wondering let's say it takes off and it just goes parabolic and there's no incentive for anyone to let go of any of it you know it's just right why would you every time you do you lose money and so you get into that mindset and then in a way it's from a monetary policy point of view in terms of managing the economy globally uh you you're you're off the rails you have to figure out a way to get to a price a price Rule and so I have wondered I I think the answer is absolutely not because I have met with the core developers and I know how strongly they feel about um about the quantity rule here but can you imagine any circumstance where you know Bitcoin actually loses its usefulness in a sense nobody wants to use it for anything they just want to hold it um and you know what happens then right if you're if you're trying to manage an economy around Bitcoin foreign I understand why Bitcoin went from 19 000 on March 13th uh the week after the weekend of uh signature and Silicon Valley Bank basically going into receivership it was a flight to safety 19 000 to 20 nearly 28 000.
that that boy was uh that proof of concept right there decentralized transparent Audible auditable and so forth so we are on the same page here I worry that um that this economic downturn this uh deflation is a much bigger problem right now and I do I do if you're going to say Well they're just going to throw money at it uh we just saw that the FED raised interest rates for the first time ever in the middle of a crisis and today and this week uh they've been talking once again about the need to increase interest rates at the next meeting so I don't think they respect Market signals and this is a big problem they are not looking at Market signals they're looking at massively lagging and unreliable indicators that are based on in a world the statistics came from the Industrial Age so they're they're not even looking at the right numbers pricing signals are the most important signals right now credit default swaps interest rates yield curves right Bitcoin yes I agree with that but I I think you might have your uh hyper um inflation of Bitcoin and I think what we're coming to if you are you seem to be nodding when I say what I'm saying about the banking system and the risks to the economy it's not going to be inflation in it it is not going to be inflation that that we're worrying about this year um it will be something else it may be counterparty risk but I don't think it's going to be inflation in the prices of goods and services and many people will say uh the dollar the dollar is going to collapse well you know the dollar is measured you if you're measuring it in terms of prices and goods and services right now it's going up if you're looking at Commodities right the dollar is appreciating if you're looking at it in terms of other currencies after a 25 run in a very short period of time it's come down but at the same same time it's come down in the last few months commodity prices have come down so what does that tell you well so here's the thing is um as so as I said I don't have a given the gyrations in the economy that there are hiking rates while printing trillions I don't have a strong thesis on essentially the ratios of different variables within this economy that's being manipulated in crazy ways um but I do want to show you something which is this is sort of Micro Data that is I'm going to say it's contrasting to your points on the velocity of money but at least it's something that you can actually see from a very bottom-up standpoint so this is like the um you know assets and deposits are you know kind of moving together and Pilkington was looking at you know that ratio and and shocks to that ratio and he's finding that this last week was um you know the the highest ever change in the asset deposit ratio and the other events were like uh you know Financial crises and and whatnot okay which I think is an interesting way of thinking about this deposit is going down right the the asset pays the trains that radically he's giving a different lens on this to show how exceptional this is right like you know is this a big deal or not that's right and so so essentially one way I kind of think about this whole thing is um you know how many economists said Bitcoin couldn't exist Bitcoin violated the laws of Economics as they knew them all these noble Nobel laureates keynesians lined up to denounce Bitcoin over the last 10 years right now don't laugh her not art laugher art laugher not our laugh for another let's say sure and and Milton Friedman and others I'm not saying every you know Milton Friedman predicted Bitcoin and so on there are there are good economists but a large number of Keynesian economists denounced Bitcoin said it couldn't exist shouldn't exist yes right okay so their Theory does not account for the existence of Bitcoin it says that because something gold like cannot exist now have you ever seen like an MRI machine and you know you're not supposed to have a piece of metal next to it like the operation of the MRI machine depends upon there being no metal nearby if there is a piece of metal nearby that field it will fly around in very unpritable ways and smash the whole thing to Pieces okay and in the same way the fact that a digital gold like thing now exists is something that they did not predict could exist and this generation of keynesians has unlike the guys who set up the Federal Reserve at the beginning where they knew they had to defeat gold like you know the uh the so-called executive order 6102 right the early generation of uh of keynesians right they actually you know had uh had guys with guns who went and basically said hey give me all your gold you know private ownership of gold is is not allowed right I mean I remember the history I wasn't there you remember the history that's right yeah neither of us were there right so the thing is that the people who set up this centralized system you know almost uh you know 100 years ago 90 years ago they are they were aware that gold was a competitor to them and they took gold very seriously and they had to actually defeat gold right now this group of people truly doesn't take digital gold seriously digital gold is a V3 while physical gold in my view has been defeated by the state and Fiat does actually improve on physical gold in some ways in the sense of its electronic and it's programmable and so on bitcoin and cryptocurrency generally it's like a V3 which which incorporates aspects of both V1 and V2 so Bitcoin has not yet being defeated by the state and the interaction of digital gold with this economy over here is like you know this MRI and there's this piece of you know metal nearby that it does that its Theory does not account for and so when you have this huge cloud of assets right all of this money that's super liquid now because of the digital Bank runs because your your home is being set on fire your bank account in your bank that you had for 40 years Silicon Valley Bank goes to zero because all the tech Elites were told that they're idiots for keeping their money in an American bank right just think about by the way what that means I don't think people realize the extent to which that reverberated oversees every Indian founder that I know okay has been like oh my God the US banking system is not trustworthy okay what an insane update yeah I understand and to make matters worse uh just to give you a sense of what investors in Banks are being told uh the president uh on that Monday March 13th got up and said the depositors uh your deposits are secure uh we want you to know that and the people responsible for this are going to be fired any decision maker and any Equity or Bond investor is going to be who use these words wiped out what kind of message is that um but we we probably should wrap this and I actually have a an interesting way of of doing that because um during my discussion with art Laffer last week we were talking about Bitcoin and he said we really need to add in terms of trying to figure out what's really going on out there in terms of the money multiplier add Bitcoin to the monetary base and we'll get a better picture so he's already thinking in this way and um I was so happy that he said it uh you know half of the solution is understanding a problem and understanding how we should try and uh frame things to understand what's really going on out there so this idea of adding Bitcoin which is uh a little over 500 billion uh to the eight and a half uh trillion uh in the monetary base uh it was a start and you know a start of a conversation because we do have to deal with the world we're living in the one you're talking about um I I think will evolve over time but it doesn't happen overnight you you might say the banking crisis is giving us that opportunity and I think it may it may happen faster than otherwise might have been the case uh but uh you know I am going to continue paying attention to Market signals I see credit default swaps settling down a bit we haven't seen we haven't seen the Regional Bank index breakdown again but it hasn't v-shaped either so I think that's a risk there that there's another episode so I think we're agreed that basically in the flight to safety the people will choose Bitcoin whether you call that um contraction and people feeling the flight safety whether you think of it as inflation in the sense of the Bitcoin price going up um that is the one number that they can't fake in the system they can hike rates while printing trillions but they can't change the amount of Bitcoin and that hard denominator constrains them and it's visible to the whole system plus it's a global asset plus it's hard to seize now one last thing I want to talk about like from a hope standpoint okay you mentioned um that Florida might do state chartered Banks banking crypto right it's a rumor there are certain a number of states the Dakota's uh and Florida among them the states that are trying to attract capital and labor absolutely that's right so all these Regional banks are getting killed and so on and in a sense there's a real deviation of interest between state and local versus the feds right and so what I think could happen is is bitcoin.florida.gov bitcoin.texas.gov Bitcoin Dot mississippi.gov and bitcoin.montana.gov all of these states which you know Texas GOP has passed something or has on its platform the right to buy sell Center receive Bitcoin shall not be infringed the mayor of Miami takes a salary in Bitcoin Mississippi and Montana have Bitcoin mining protection bills Wyoming and Tennessee have Dow bills right so lots of these red and purple States Colorado accepts uh taxes in cryptocurrency New Hampshire is pro cryptocurrency right lots of these let's say red and purplish kind of states are pro Freedom states are pro-cryptocurrency and if they reopen the gold window okay if you had bitcoin.florida.gov bitcoin.texas.gov where it's like basically a very simple exchange it's like coinbase circuit 2013.
you can buy sell send and receive Bitcoin you can place limit orders you've got a Fiat USD BTC order book that's it and it's set up for you to just take your Bitcoin off the exchange within you know a few days like or right away ideally it's not meant to be something where you hold it there they just keep pinging you to take it off right and then what happens is the state just takes a cut of that so they're now accumulating a digital goal position okay why is this important why do I think of this as a positive development well first is uh you know this answers and others have come out against the cbdc but what are they for they're anti-cbdc which is digital serfdom they're for Bitcoin which is digital Freedom okay and so now you can be for something rather than simply against and you have essentially a Bitcoin backed local state government right where this is the move against the feds and then the question is okay well the feds you know will the FED try or little fed uh try to shut down fedwire and ech and other access us to these uh these Banks well they cut off Florida will they cut off Texas I think that's probably a bridge too far if they did do it it would show the potential Financial totalitarianism incipient in a cbdc if they didn't do it well the Fiat rails would be open the reason I think something like this is going to happen is it's the next logical step after for example El Salvador adopting Bitcoin mayor's adopting Bitcoin because right now you have the government going and fighting coinbase and binance and that's government versus company a company doesn't necessarily have enough hit points to fight a government but another government does you see in Pacific Rim you know to fight giant monsters you need a giant robots right so if you have a state like Florida and Texas with a lot of hit points that is now you know that can't go easily bust that's got a lot of credibility and reputation and if you have a lot of red and purple states that share their order books their usdbc order books that is now something which keeps the USD BTC window open allows exit from the system benefits local States because they can accumulate digital gold builds upon the existing shall not be infringed Dao language minor language Mayors accepting Bitcoin El Salvador is a sovereign currency and finally can be internationalized because naiba Kelly held a meeting of I think like 44 uh small countries uh you know bankers and have been planting seeds about you know what it what it's like to transition your country over to a partial Bitcoin standard so you also have this happening globally where small countries like you know Palau for example that a pro crypto could do this okay if that happens if the digital gold window is reopened after Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.
at the same time by the way that China is a totally different animal and they're moving oil and other transfers over to Petro Yuan the biggest difference is in 2008 uh USD was too big to fail in 2023 it's not and if it does go down we don't want China to be that Reserve currency we do want uh it to be Bitcoin or Freedom currency and I think that actually the moves that I'm describing that is like the positive vision of the future if this system is going to go down let's have an orderly exit it if you think that the FED isn't simply piloting in the wrong direction but actually crashing the plane how do you make your way to the parachute and I think that parachute that exit is BTC um of course you might have different opinion you might go and get gold you might get oil you might do other kinds of things that's you know not Financial advice you for you know for for people to decide but but I do think that that will end up being the shelling point I may be wrong but that's my thesis on why I think we see exit from the U.S banking system towards Bitcoin over the next weeks and months and perhaps years to come the exact timeline of 90 days you know I don't think it's impossible that happens given how fast digital Bank runs happen but directionally it's much easier timing is hard prepping is easy prep for essentially just like you prep for covid and prepping earlier was better if lockdown came in 42 days after some of the initial reports of covered in the US who knows how quickly digital lockdown comes it's fed now is dropping in July so before that happens build the exits build the exit to bitcoin build exits other kinds of things and I think we have potentially a positive Vision on their side thank you foreign
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