원문 보기
Tom Lee tomly everybody's favorite Bowl in the stock market my gosh folks is this fascinating he's the only video we're reacting to in this one one video One video only okay Tom Lee sounds the least bullish in the clip I'm about to show you which I I had to find this thank goodness somebody posted up on YouTube it wasn't really on cnbc's uh channel the whole the whole clip here he sounds Elise bullish I've heard him since back around like kind of like fall time of 2022.
when the market was just in a really tough place that's the only time period I've seen him and heard him this kind of scared bearish just ugh you know just like oh sounds like so sad and depressed like this is fascinating and so we're going to get into it and hear what he has to say in regards to this but it's very interesting that you know it goes to show you the level of kind of pessimism we have in the market of fear in the market when you have somebody like a Tom Lee that it seems to always be just Ultra bullish rate coming out and just talking the way he's talking in this video it's going to be pretty shocking for a lot of you guys to kind of hear the way he's speaking right and in regards to the market right you have two groups of bowls you have the bowls that are you know kind of like a Tom Lee type fellow that can you know are always predicting like the stock market's gonna go up this week or this month or we're about to have a great next month in the market and this is why you know and then you got you know a different category myself and maybe many of you that are bullish that are just optimistic on stocks long term optimistic on the markets right and we take advantage when we ever we get deals presented to us regardless of the market right whether we're on a bullish Market a bearish market whatever and in crashing markets we like to take advantage even more right and so we we're not confident that in the next week or the next month these stocks are going to go up but we're confident over the next three five seven years with these companies in the way they run their businesses they're going to do very very well right growth value dividends so uh yeah nonetheless folks we're gonna get into this one it should be an interesting one thank you everybody that's joining me 24 500 plus subscribers now Channel a new record I appreciate every single person I subscribe the channel thanks for being here guys also if you ever want to say hello to me say hello to me on IG if you didn't know I have an IG Financial education Jeremy I don't talk about it much on the channel or give it uh much uh let's call it publicity but uh yeah if you ever want to say hello it's in the description area if you ever want to just you know send me a message say you enjoy the videos or anything like that just feel free to always send me a message say hello I'm always there also if you're looking to support the channel because you really enjoy it and also you want to see what stocks I'm buying and selling out there join us in the patreon that'll be the pin comment down there let's get into this Tom Lee Tom I guess I mean the NASDAQ ended higher in all of this as some believe the FED is not going to raise in March uh crypto rallied what does that tell you uh well you know the last couple of days have been really tough for the markets but I think this credit shock that's reverberating from the Silicon Valley bank failure is the first signs that the fed's monetary policy is finally biting I mean and I think you know one of the takeaways we have when we look at what fed fund Futures have done which is now pricing cuts by your end and the drop in yields is that there are some deflationary forces being Unleashed because of both the shock to the startup community and you know the the regional Banks having some tightening of lending standards that's surely to follow and I think you know I think it does mean disinflation maybe finally have happened we may have sort of broken the back of inflation interesting we might have broken the back of inflation so obviously I think a lot of you guys know how I feel about inflation right but we've got to let that play out in the numbers over the next six months I do believe uh that CPI is going to keep coming in lower and lower and lower and we're going to be you know in the fives before you know it in the fours before you know it and ultimately in the threes by Fall time that's my personal opinion might not happen but that's where I see it going that's the trends I see when I look at commodity pricing when I hear uh Executives talk to these companies I I don't hear any executive out there now at this point in time which I listened to probably 30 40 conference calls during every earning season right we just got through an earnings season here and I can tell you I don't hear any Executives um you know throwing up the alarm signals that inflation's out of control like they were last year now it's very muted action when it comes to inflation so there is still inflation but there's honestly always inflation it's just um now at this point in time it's not like that Earth shaking crazy inflation like we had last year right and so it's just something to keep in mind that's what makes me very very confident between what I'm looking at commodity prices what I'm seeing these companies do for actions now in 2023 at this point in time and listening to Executives these companies kind of talk that's what gives me a lot of faith that CPI is going to keep coming under and under we're going to hit fives fours and threes and in a pretty short amount of time my personal opinion all right we have some breaking news right now from the FED Steve wiesman has the details Steve Silicon Valley Bank and its supervision of Silicon Valley Bank in light of its failure uh we have a quote here from uh excuse me one second we have a quote here from Michael Barr uh the vice chair of supervision who will lead this he says we need to have humility and conduct a careful thorough review uh Fed chair Powell saying the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough transparent and Swift review by the Federal Reserve uh they are promising to make that uh review public as of May 1st so fairly quick timeline for the Federal Reserve Morgan steveman thank you Tom before we get back into Tom Lee's opinion on this okay you know what did he just talk about spoke about there right the fed's going to completely look into the whole svb situation okay I got to be honest with you guys about this okay this whole situation is incredibly embarrassing to the Federal Reserve and to the government in general the fact that they just had the second biggest bank collapse we've ever seen it happened out of nowhere and they didn't see it coming they were not planned they were not prepared it's embarrassing and now this completely has to change the trajectory of what the fed's up to here in regards to inflation right and so it's a very embarrassing situation in regards to this whole situation because they're just looking like had we not see this coming like what's going on here right and now now because of this failure and just kind of happening out of nowhere and the FED wasn't on this right now they're going to have to be much more timid if they even do raise interest rates anymore now at this point in time because now they're like crap banks are failing left and right oh my gosh what do you do in that sort of situation oh you got to start bailing folks out you might even have to start to consider cutting rates you have to start considering quantitative easy thing I mean these were things that weren't even close to being on the table for 2023 like that wasn't even supposed to be a subject but now because they didn't see this coming it's going to have to be on the table no different than they didn't see inflation obviously being non-transitory right and having to raise rates the FED never expected in a million years that they would have to raise rates at the rate they had to raise them in 2022 but they had to do it right and so it's just another kind of embarrassing thing to kind of happen in the government and the FED in this whole situation it makes them just look very very bad I want to get your reaction to that because you just mentioned the federal fund the FED fund's uh Futures market and just the dramatic repricing we've seen there in the last couple of days Scott at the end of the three o'clock hour noted that the two-year treasury note has slipped below four percent we've seen the D inversion pretty dramatically it's still inverted but not nearly as much of the two to ten year spread as well what is the bond market signaling here and what does it tell us about the FED next week and that weighing by Federal Reserve officials of inflation that's still high versus now the possibility of risk and and something potentially being broken with within the banking industry um yeah I mean there's a there's a couple of reasons that yield curve is de-inverting because you know the the curve that people are referring to is the tenure versus the two-year um it could be D inverting because uh Financial conditions in terms of fed policy is starting to ease and that's why the two years dropping it you know the tenure never really responded it could also be de-inverting because you're breaking inflation if inflation is no longer going to be running at five percent that's insane that is insane oh my gosh it's two years and you know the tenure was always forecasting roughly two you're gonna de-invert as inflation's breaking so I think it means something definitely broke I don't know if it's the economy or if it's inflation Steve leesman uh I want to go back to you for a moment on that breaking news that you just brought us about the FED conducting a review regarding uh Silicon Valley bank now uh I wonder if this is in part Steve that that comment is a little ridiculous from Tom Lee there I'm not sure um if it's inflation breaking or the economy okay listen what happened in the economy the last week nothing the economy doesn't move that fast to like be greater be worse in a weak span it doesn't work like that and so there's no difference in the economy this week versus last week this is not the way this works the economy to make major substantial differences it takes months sometimes it even takes years right and that's why once you get unemployment start to really tick up you've got to nip that in the bud right away because I'm telling you you let that baby go on too much next thing you know you're looking at four five six seven eight nine ten percent uh unemployment rate right it happens pretty rapidly and so nonetheless like that that was just kind of a ridiculous comment in my personal opinion from Tom Lee there I'm like is it inflation or is it the economy it's like nothing changed with the economy like recently whatever you thought about the economy three weeks ago is the same thing you should pretty much be thinking right now view of the fed's own I guess action or lack thereof one of the things that the FED is supposed to do right is promote the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions monitor their impact on the financial system as a whole I guess ideally that happens before something like a Silicon Valley Bank collapse happens so what are they perhaps investigating now it is precisely a review of that uh the release John says that they are uh uh reviewing uh a review of the supervision and regulation of the bank that's what they're reviewing uh in light of its failure and I think uh John you put your finger on what they're after they're after how did this thing fail why were there no red flags or apparent red flags raised ahead of time um you know it's even unclear by the way what the FED knew and when it knew it um some of the the tale of the tape that I've heard is that it was really the uh uh rating agencies that flagged investors and others that that there was a problem there not The Regulators I I don't know what happened behind the scenes if The Regulators were on Silicon Valley Bank if somehow they missed something uh that was key in the books or whatever but but the the what underlies this Jonathan is that the safety and soundness of the financial system is entirely about really about comfort evidence and if there is no confidence that The Regulators are not on the ball then you have a big problem with confidence in the system itself because frankly average depositors even sophisticated depositors do not have the tools or the ability to evaluate the safety and soundness of banks so the FED does need to do this and in fact it does need to move quickly because it really fair points really fair points here by Steve leesman very fair going to be a critical pillar of restoring confidence to the system okay you're a bullish even if you continue to be bullish here especially if we are talking about confidence and that being something that is going to essentially decide or determine whether we see more potential and hopefully we don't but more potential runs on banks now listen to how muted Tom Lee Sounds here and how like kind of like uh you know like almost a pessimistic sounding tone here in tonality by Tom Lee here this is quite interesting um well in the near term I don't think it's bullish uh you know we notified our clients Friday and near term I don't think it's bullish reiterated this morning that there is going to be sort of lingering in ping pong and second order effects so I do think it's tough and it's a tough time for investors to be adding risk here but it's a tough time for investors to be adding risk here that is intriguing statement by Tom Lee that shows how pessimistic of a view he has right now that he's like it's tough to even add stocks right now right wow that that's that's when you know we got major pessimism and embarrassedness in the market when even a Tom Lee is like yeah you know it's really tough to be on stocks right now like holy smokes man um the reasons you I can still State constructive intermediate term is number one I think the biggest risk has been not only inflationary pressures uh which look like they could be broken but it's also that you know that the fed's policy was actually creating a lot of the strains in the banking system I mean is as it's being pointed out deposits for shrinking um as excess savings is disappearing and at the same time the Securities portfolios which these Banks hold which is a function of prevailing race was taking losses because of higher rates so as the feds pausing that's helping to stabilize that situation so I think a lot of this is it's tough right now because the dust hasn't settled but I think the key to watch now is the resilience I think the market has shown pretty impressive resilience and I think that's a good sign but longer term 10 yards down vix is falling and we're finally getting softening the jobs Market perform we're expecting to and that should help break the back of inflation Steve Eastman um I want to ask you a question I know you got something to add as well but in March just because there's a bank that bought long-dated bonds you know more than a year ago but what you mentioned about what the FED is looking into sort of shifts my thinking on that if the FED feels some culpability that it did these rapid you know hikes 75 basis points and perhaps wasn't looking as closely at the impact as the FED should have been could that not be a rationale for the FED to say hey look John Ford in all due respect sir okay and I really like John um this is way bigger than just svb we had svb go down we had silvergate go down we got signature Banco down and we have all the regional Banks basically in complete free fall right now in terms of their stock prices so this goes way deeper than just like oh it's one bang this happening right and that's why the FED has to take this level of seriousness with it because this is like I don't see the entire banking system because the big guys aren't really getting his hit that bad the Bank of America's JP Morgan those big big dogs right but once you go under that that let's call it tier one down to tier two and tier three Banks oh my gosh they're getting obliterated right now and so there's real fear that a lot of these Regional Banks could be going under in the next three to six months right and we'll see if that obviously happens but that's why the FED has to to to to potentially has to think about stopping raising rates and potentially even cutting rates um if if there's more fear in in pessimism out there see this is on us we don't know let's pause for a moment while we take a look at what happened here yeah John I'm not sure they're investigating this really interesting area that you just raised which is the cross section or the intersection sorry of monetary policy and supervision right now this says supervision maybe the monetary policy aspect is part of it but the reason why people think the FED might stop here is is is a couple first of all they could stop as a matter of prudence as a matter of giving the banking system a little bit of time uh to um to catch its breath an example of that John you remember back the pension uh problem that they had over in England bank of England stopped for a month it's quantitative tightening and then resumed it of course that was a limited problem this is a broader banking confidence issue we have here another reason John for the FED to stop or the reasoning behind this is that this event is a massive disinflationary event that has the effect of tightening uh lending policy tightening monitor policy throughout the system if indeed Banks you pull back have to pay more in interest tighten their lending standards then that is the same effect as the FED tightening interest rates yeah it goes back to the point I think you were just making it well at least man you should be the macroeconomics teacher at all colleges man well done that point at the end there was phenomenal if you were daydreaming or something during that last Point Steve Eastman made about a minute ago there rewind this video watch that baby again that was amazing okay absolutely amazing I appreciate everybody joining me as always Tom Lee wow yeah that's the least bullish I've heard Tom Lee like I said probably since maybe September October November time frame like that was incredible and also if you want to say hello to me once again say hello to me on Instagram send me a DM on there if you're looking to support the channel you enjoy the channel and you also want to see the moves I'm making out there check us out on patreon that will be pin comment down there much love and have a great day
Comments 0