저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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결론: 빌 밀러는 비트코인을 디지털 금이자 '보험'으로 보며 장기 보유를 권하지만, 단기 가격 방향은 제시하지 않는다. 비트코인 투자 계기: 2014년 Sun Valley 컨퍼런스에서 웬세스 카사레스의 발표를 듣고 약 200달러에 매수 시작했다. 개인 포트폴리오 비중: 개인 투자 포트폴리오의 약 50%를 비트코인에 두고 있다고 밝혔다. 펀드에도 비트코인 관련 투자(Stronghold Digital, MicroStrategy 등)를 담았다. 가격 이력 및 리스크: 2021년 6.6만 달러 고점 후 약 3만 달러까지 하락했다가 재매수했다. 과거 80% 이상 하락이 3차례 있었으며 레버리지 거래는 매우 위험하다고 경고했다. 근거(보험·희소성): 비트코인은 정부 압수·인플레이션·금융위기 상황에서 작동하는 보험 역할을 하며, 공급 상한이 2,100만 개로 고정돼 있다. 금은 채굴 증가로 공급이 늘어나는 반면 비트코인은 수요만 늘어도 가격이 오를 수 있다고 주장했다. 워런 버핏 비판 반박: 버핏이 비트코인의 본질적 가치가 없다고 한 주장에 대해, 미키 맨틀 카드나 피카소 그림도 본질적 가치가 없지만 높은 가격에 거래된다고 반박했다. 전망 및 조언: 비트코인이 신기술로서 전기·인터넷처럼 장기적으로 성장한다고 보며, 수요가 공급 증가율(연 1.5~2%)을 넘어서면 가격이 꾸준히 오른다고 봤다. 모든 투자자는 포트폴리오의 최소 1%를 비트코인에 두고, 하락 시 분할 매수하되 감당 가능한 금액만 투자하라고 조언했다. 단기 방향 예측: 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 발언은 없고 장기 견해만 있다.
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the average investor should ask himself or herself what do you have in your portfolio that has this kind of track record number one is so is very very underpenetrated can provide a service of insurance against financial catastrophe that no one else can provide and uh and can go up 10 times or 50 times the answer is nothing what does bitcoin mean to you as an investor are you in it because everyone is talking about it or because you see something special that you do not see in other assets in bitcoin or are you set against it because billionaire investors like warren buffett and charlie munger seem so set against its value as an asset despite its many success stories many billionaire investors are still skeptical about the value of bitcoin as an asset but for everyone billionaire that continues to live in doubt there are people like bill miller who believe bitcoin is pretty valuable much more than any other asset in recent time in fact you might have heard of bill miller but if you have not he is the founder owner and chief investment officer of miller value partners he also holds the record for beating the s and p 500 index with his leg mason capital management trust fund for 15 consecutive years bill miller is a billionaire investor and baby boomer two attributes that many anti-bitcoiners often possess however miller is a baby boomer like no other this brilliant american investor and fund manager has 50 of his personal investment portfolio in bitcoin in a recent interview miller confirms that both his trust fund and personal investment portfolio contained generous amounts of bitcoin the investor also explains why he has chosen to invest in bitcoin and why others like warren buffett are wrong in their assessment of the digital asset you are welcome to savvy finance a channel dedicated to bringing you regular updates on the crypto space of tweets interviews feature articles and many others in this video we examine all the important parts of miller's interview so be sure you watch it to the end click the like button and subscribe to the channel let's get started according to miller he got started on bitcoin after listening to wence's cassaires also known as bitcoin's patient zero at the annual sun valley media and tech conference in 2014.
the conference is usually a gathering of top political figures business tycoons leading athletes philanthropists and investors during his interview miller explains that cassers had asked people if they had any bitcoin or even they had heard about it at all only a few people had heard about bitcoin and nobody in the audience held any bitcoin cassaires then sought to remedy the situation by introducing the group of top american investors and political figures to the peer-to-peer technology using personal experience cassers convinced miller of bitcoin's value as an investment asset luckily for miller he got on board when bitcoin had been only two hundred dollars listen to miller recount the experience himself my thinking here was that um i i heard a talk on on bitcoin given by the person who's known as patient zero in the bitcoin world wences casares and um wences gave a talk at the allen company sun valley conference and he led off his talk this is 2014 i want to say uh he let off his talk by saying that asking how many anybody owned bitcoin nobody in the audience owned it except for him and did anybody know what it was and a few scattered hands went up and he said well let me explain to you um why i own bitcoin and he said and it's because i understand why you wouldn't understand it because you all live in america and you have a rule of law and you have uh you know orderly governments and in most in most times you have you know low relatively low inflation and a prosperous economy and he said but i'm from argentina and my family's been there 150 years and we've been wiped out four separate times by the argentinian government seizing our assets nationalizing the banks inflating us out with hyperinflation and he said so bitcoin can't be touched by the government it's a it's a peer-to-peer decentralized independent network it's a ledger that records every transaction that's public it's immutable and he said so the government if you have bitcoin the government cannot take it away from you and he he said so it's it's think of it as an insurance policy and he went into it and talked about it and i thought you know and he talked about putting one percent of your liquid net worth in bitcoin and i thought that was sensible he laid out what it what it could do if it worked he said then that it was very risky because then it was about 200 but i i bought some then and i bought a little bit more over time and it became 500 and then i stopped buying it and i didn't buy it for years until just the spring of this year it hit a 66 000 high price and then in four weeks it was in half now bitcoin has gone up on average 170 a year for the last 11 years now but that's not every year just an average it's gone down three different times by more than 80 percent so that's that is you know a very volatile and therefore very dangerous if you're especially if you're levered as you can be if you're on some of these exchanges that'll loan you 50 to one on on your bitcoin but um each time it's been stopped at around the 80 low 80s level and it's come back and this year this time i started buying it again at thirty thousand dollars down from 66 and my reasoning was there's a lot more people using it now there's a lot more money going into it in the venture capital world there are a lot of people who are skeptics who are now at least trying it out and uh and i thought maybe maybe 50 is a good stopping point for it but if it goes bad down 80 or 85 i'll buy it all the way down well it did stop right around 50 and slowly started its way back up again but i i bought a fair amount uh at you know at the 30 000 range and have been adding to various bitcoin related uh investments since then so uh there's a company that you know that we own in our in our income fund called stronghold digital which is a bitcoin mining company where the ceo owns 35 it looks like they could make you know six to eight dollars in a couple of years and they're very low cost minor of bitcoin and the all their energy that they're using the electricity usage is all renewables or uh it gets credits for cleaning up abandoned coal mines so it's one of those things that um i mean as much as i like bitcoin you know i've added a but uh stronghold in here and own it also via the fund as well as microstrategy and some other companies miller also gives reasons why he has made bitcoin half of his personal investment portfolio he explains that bitcoin can be described as a digital gold but with more value while the roosevelt administration had been able to confiscate people's gold in the early 1930s miller explains that bitcoin is completely safe from all forms of government interference he also takes down warren buffett's argument that bitcoin has no intrinsic value as such it is an unworthy investment miller explains that there are many millionaires and billionaires who would throw millions of dollars on paintings which in themselves also have no intrinsic value he also points out another great attribute of bitcoin its limited supply miller explains that bitcoin's supply has already been capped at 21 million and nothing not even increased demand would increase the supply instead as the supply gets thinner and demand increases prices would skyrocket here is miller explaining his reasons for investing so generously in bitcoin i would say that right now it's it's best thought of as digital gold so it's gold as as people said a store of value for 5 000 years right and gold is what people typically fled to when the government's tried to uh you know inflate them out and in the united states franklin d roosevelt confiscated everybody's gold in 1933.
you had to turn it in or you went to jail so they can't confiscate your bitcoin because there's nothing they you hold it securely as long as you have an internet connection you can you can send it somewhere instantaneously at very low very low cost and the reason i the reason i i like the insurance company analogy is because if you think about people talk about the intrinsic value of bitcoin this is a warren buffett argument that bitcoin has no intrinsic value it doesn't have any earnings it'll never pay any dividends uh and so so how do you even think about something like that it is a new technology it's something that couldn't be done before but in any case the answer that i have to that is well i mean what's the what's the intrinsic value of that mickey mantle baseball card that sold for five and a half million dollars it's just cardboard and it doesn't even have a ledge it could be counterfeited very easily or what's the intrinsic value of a picasso painting which just canvas and paint uh and uh you know maybe a frame but people will pay millions or tens of millions of dollars for it and so it comes down at the very basic level for supply and demand so bitcoin is the only economic entity where um the supply is unaffected by the demand so even with gold if gold which is eighteen hundred dollars today if gold goes to eighteen thousand dollars there will be a lot more gold mined because mines that are unprofitable will become profitable and so gold which which accretes today the production of gold is about equal about one and a half to two percent of the total value per year that's the same uh accretion that bitcoin has currently uh that but this year 2022 i think we'll drop below 1.5 on that so only only 21 million bitcoin can ever be created or close to it it doesn't matter if bitcoin is 100 000 or or 20 million there's only going to be that many of them so um all you have to really believe is that the demand for bitcoin will grow faster than one and a half percent you know over the next number of years and the price inexorably will go up so i've i've i've only recently been allowing myself to be described as a bitcoin bull i i used to tell people oh you're a bitcoin bull you own a lot of bitcoin i'm like i do own a lot of it but i'm actually a bitcoin observer and i'm observing its trajectory as a new technology and comparing it to the trajectories of things like the printing press or the steam engine or the railroads or the automobile or electricity and and it's following that very uh not not predictable because it's not predictable certainly in the early days a well understood path for the adoption of new technologies and you know stan i think it was stan druckenmiller uh said earlier in the year that and and now he owns bitcoin by the way um but he said that bitcoin was the solution in search of a problem and what i've found amusing about that is every new technology is a solution in search of a problem because you have a new technology and trying to figure out what you're going to do with it and so you know when you when we created the internet what are we going to do with that so uh the defense department had used good uses for it but it was tough for other other people to see and but now everybody can see what the value of the internet is same thing with the internal combustion engine which was very dangerous and all but now that's taken over the world and now we're going to move to to electricity so all kinds of technologies have to grow into their uh grow into their potential and bitcoin is i guess you want the theoretical answer to the question is that's the work of brian arthur santa fe institute and stanford who is kind of the leading authority on what he calls increasing returns economics and what he calls lock-in and path dependence in the economy so his basic idea is that when technologies reach a certain dominance and they're the leader it's almost impossible to dislodge them even without a very superior technology and bitcoin's there is that what that's what that's what i would say i and the other bulls believe okay if you think bitcoin is just an asset miller says it is much more than that to him bitcoin is an insurance policy against political and economic crises he cites the example of the financial crises in afghanistan after was the u.s troops left he also cites the example of the coronavirus pandemic which had sent the traditional financial sector to a screeching halt until the government had to intervene by printing more money while bitcoin had been affected during the peak of the pandemic it continued to survive without any intervention from administrators or central banks for these reasons miller says he believes the asset is a must have insurance policy against unforeseen circumstances listen to the billionaire's app description of bitcoin's qualities there's 21 million shares of this insurance company outstanding and every day that somebody wakes up and says you know i need some insurance in case something you know in case the government seizes all the gold like they did back in 1933 or you know when afghanistan we pulled out of afghanistan um western union stopped remittances so if you if you couldn't get money uh and it's still hard to get money in afghanistan you were in serious trouble uh in lebanon the lira has completely collapsed venezuela is a failed state and yet bitcoin uh continues right along that was your insurance policy against financial catastrophe of one sort or another and what did the fed do when the pandemic shut down all parts of uh threatened to shut down all parts of the economy the financial markets came unglued and the normal relationships between cash and bonds and securities especially asset-backed securities got blown apart and the fed had to increase the money supply by 25 to keep those things from collapsing as they did in 2008.
right during that time the bitcoin network functioned perfectly there was no run on it there was you know prices went down initially until people figured out wait a minute we've had a tremendous collapse here and the bitcoin uh blockchain is functioning without it without it without any interference at all so i think that that explains it i think in a way that many people can understand if you literally want a little bit of financial insurance then you know buy a bitcoin or a part of a bitcoin the argument i get most often is why not gold right which is considered to be an insurance policy against catastrophe historically so the answer to that is um in my opinion anyway uh gold has gone from effect around 5000 years so it's gone from those called make up a number and say a dime a nickel in today's uh parlance and in 5 000 years it's gone from a nickel to 1850 so why would i own gold especially since gold in the last 10 years has gone down in the last 10 years bitcoin is the best performing asset category in the world the billionaire investor also believes that everyone should have at least one percent of their portfolio in bitcoin this way one would not feel too weighed down if the coin's price drops 50 or 80 percent as it has many times in the past what's the year one investment for a long-term diversified portfolio well i have to say bitcoin because very few people own it uh if you put one percent of your assets in it for diversification um you can afford if it goes to zero which i think is highly improbable but of course it's possible um you can you can always afford to lose one percent but i think the average investor should ask himself or herself what do you have in your portfolio that has this kind of track record number one is so is very very underpenetrated can provide a service of insurance against financial catastrophe that no one else can provide and and can go up 10 times or 50 times the answer is nothing so perhaps you should have some of this and certainly if you own any gold you should have you should have some of it but but one percent i think is is is prudent and and sensible and um but i think we'll do very well for people before the video ends we live you with miller's analogy that we believe might help people cope better with the market's current situation and one of the things that we know it's been proven over and over again is that the coefficient of loss to gain is two to one so a dollar's worth of loss in the market is twice as painful as a dollar's worth of gain is pleasurable and as warren buffett's often says fear is contagious and spreads rapidly and confidence only returns slowly one person at a time but what that means is when you have very dramatic negative events that people tend to overreact to them and that those are you know they're rare but they're perfect buying opportunities instead of examining the negative effects of a 42 000 bitcoin why not buy the dip however ensure you only put in what you can conveniently afford so nasty surprises do not make you bankrupt thanks for watching the video if you have not remember to hit the like button drop your comments below and subscribe to the channel you
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