저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 일시적이지 않으며 연준은 금리를 올려야 하고, 이 환경에서는 가격결정력이 있는 우량 기업만 살아남는다는 견해. 인플레이션 구조: 임금은 한번 오르면 되돌리기 어렵고(예: 15→12로 내려가기 어려움), 원자재(구리·목재 등)·에너지·주택가격·비트코인 등 전반이 오르고 있다고 봄. 팬데믹 후 봉쇄 해제에 따른 소비 욕구, 트럼프·바이든 부양책, 인프라 투자, 과도하게 완화적인 연준이 겹쳤다고 진단. 금리 전망: 연준이 금리를 인상할 것이 확실하다고 주장. 정책 대응 시점이 늦었고, 선제적 대응이 더 낫다고 평가. 금리 인상 시 경기 과열 위험은 줄지만 주식시장에는 조정 압력이 될 수 있다는 진행자 해석 소개. 주택 인플레이션: 애크먼은 트위터(12월 11일)에서 전국 단독주택 임대 최대 보유사들이 임대료를 17% 올렸다고 보고, 주택 공급·수요 추세상 주택 인플레가 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것이라고 주장. 실제 체감 인플레는 정부 통계보다 훨씬 높다며 핵심 CPI 4.9%→9%, 소비자물가 6.8%→10.1%로 제시(실제 체감 기준 재계산 주장). 투자 전략: 거시 예측 대신 포트폴리오 내 기업 선별에 집중. 가격결정력이 있어 비용 상승을 소비자에게 전가할 수 있는 기업(예: 피자 가격이 올라도 구매하는 브랜드형 소비재)을 선호. 인플레가 지속되면 임금·원가 전가 능력에 따라 기업 간 주가 격차가 커진다고 봄. 원자재 트레이딩은 자신들의 영역이 아니라고 선을 그음. 포트폴리오 및 시청자 의견: 페ershing Square 포트폴리오 기업들이 인플레 상황에서도 비용 상승을 전가할 수 있다고 평가. 진행자는 시청자에게 포트폴리오 대응(매도·매수·금·비트코인 등) 의견을 질문.
다듬은 글
i think it's not temporary uh first of all it's hard to roll back wages once you roll them up i mean they go from 15 to 12. you know it's it so i would say we have a new baseline in terms of wages sort of generally you look at every commodity price right new hot wheels copper lumber you know make your list look at what's going on in energy even before the colonial uh you know pipeline issue um look at housing prices look at bitcoin right everything is inflating inflation we're back on that topic again and today we're going to be listening to the thoughts of legendary billionaire investor bill ackman as he breaks down what he's currently seeing out there in the market with regards to this high inflation and also the best businesses to invest in during these high inflationary periods with that said let's jump on over and listen to what bill ackman has to say around inflation there's kind of a once in a moment in history right you have people emerging from a pandemic with the animal spirits that come from being locked by beings right so that's dramatic you have you have uh all that hit you know the vaccine roll out actually in the us certainly it's been you know fantastic uh so you have a lot of people feeling you know being fully vaccinated going back to their lives and then you have the trump stimulus the biden stimulus infrastructure an extremely accommodative you know federal reserve and everything concentrated in a couple of quarters so that's the federal reserve too accommodative do you think i think they're gonna have to raise rates for sure and i think you know they adjusted their policy in my view just at the wrong time you know the a preemptive policy toward inflation i think is a better approach particularly in a world where we have uh you know massive massive uh stimulus economic stimulus is it too much stimulus i mean this is i think with rates where they are it will have there's a very good risk of the economy overheating that's why i think rates go up and so it seems very obvious that bill ackman is seeing a lot of inflation out there at the moment and he thinks that they will have to increase interest rates in the near future obviously it's hard to predict when they will increase interest rates and the negative effect on this is obviously it will probably curb the inflation but it will also have an effect on the equity markets money will become a lot harder to get interest rates will be going up so in turn you would think that the equity markets will have a bit of a pullback look that's just a very high level look at it by no means am i an economist and that's my basic understanding of it so bill ackman's recently come out on twitter on december 11th where he's seen a big separation between what the government's actually reporting to actually what's happening with regards to inflation now he says the largest owners of nationwide single family rentals are reporting a 17 in rental increases he's saying housing inflation is unlikely to abate based on supply and demand trends the inflation that households are actually experiencing is raging and well in excess of the reported government statistics also using the more empirical measure in the calculation increases today core cpi from four point nine percent to nine percent and also consumer price index from six point eight percent to ten point one percent so he's seeing quite a big difference between what the government is actually reporting to what's actually currently happening out there in the market obviously you want to take a grant assault with this as well don't just listen to what blackman has to say on the matter but a lot of this to be honest is all out of our control we're better off when we're faced with these sort of situations where we're maybe seeing high inflation or current raising interest rates is to more just concentrate on the businesses within our own portfolio um as this is what we can control we can decide on what we buy or what we sell so this is what we should be devoting more time on rather than trying to speculate on what the fed's going to do or are they going to raise interest rates are they going to lower them so in this next clip we're going to have a look at what bill recommends are the best businesses to look at investing in through a high inflationary period i was going to ask given how 2021 has played out what's your view on the big themes that investors you know globally really should be preparing for in 2022 were there any stocks or sectors ideas um investors should be thinking about knowing um okay i think the world's an uncertain place and we're not traders at all right we're looking to own things that we're gonna stock market closed for a decade we're happy to own it it's certainly true for universal and our other companies in the portfolio but we own these super durable robust businesses because i have no idea what the world's going to look like in 6 or 12 months or i have a pretty good idea of a view of what things are going to be but they may not be that way so you want to own businesses that have pricing power if you know inflation turns to be a lot more durable than than temporary you know i think inflation expectation uh has changed fundamentally that's also a driver of inflation so i think we're gonna see inflation i think that is going to be a three i think so i think there's a more likelihood of stock market divergence some companies doing very very well some companies doing very very poorly you know companies that can't pass through wage inflation and goods inflation to their customers are going to do poorly if i'm right about inflation so the the better the business the better it does i think and you want to own the best businesses in the world in an uncertain world in an inflationary world um if you're good or better than we are at trading commodities you know there's probably a ton of money being made i just don't it's not what we do so we want to be investing into businesses that have pricing power and can easily increase the rate of their products or services or whatever it may be that they offer um to us the end consumer number of these different companies within the portfolio and they can easily increase prices only marginally especially for menu we're not going to jump ship and if prices increase by 10 cents or cost an extra 50 cents for a pizza you're still going to buy that pizza so these are the sort of companies that the wekmans likes to invest in just generally but also through these high inflationary recruits so let's jump on over and have a quick look over putin square's current portfolio to see what sort of businesses we've got within that portfolio so now if we have a look over the companies in persian squares capitals portfolio all the companies within this portfolio i think should be able to pass on the increased costs of goods wage inflation onto us the uh the yen consumer what are your thoughts on bill's portfolio do you think it would fare well through a high inflationary period drop in the comments below what your thoughts are on it also what are you currently doing within your portfolio are you looking at selling down maybe some of these businesses that won't perform so well through a high inflationary period or you're looking at buying into businesses that will perform well or you're selling out of everything entirely and investing into gold or bitcoin or some other currency um anyway i'd love to hear you guys thoughts drop in the comments below what you're sort of currently doing within your portfolio well that's it that's going to wrap us up for today's video if you did enjoy today's video please do us a favor hit that like button and if you'd like to see future videos please consider hitting that subscribe button i know most of my audience currently aren't subscribers so if you enjoy what you watch today definitely do us a favor hit that subscribe button that way you'll stay up to date when the next video drops alright stay safe we'll catch in the next video cheers guys
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