저자: NeilDenize—출연자소속미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거가 2021년 4분기 13F에서 알리바바 보유를 거의 두 배로 늘렸다는 소식을 전하고, 이후 모니시 파브라이의 알리바바 매도 이유(세금손실 상계, 텐센트·프로세스 이동)를 소개하는 영상이다. 13F 데이터 분석: 2021년 1분기 처음 매수(보고가 약 226달러), 2분기 추가 매수 없음, 3분기 82.71만큼 추가(보고가 약 148달러), 4분기 99.32만큼 추가(보고가 약 118.79달러). 세 보고가의 단순평균은 약 164달러로 추정되며, 당시 알리바바 시세 약 120달러 대비 낮은 수준이라고 설명한다. 파브라이 인터뷰 인용: 매수 신호는 강하고 매도 신호는 약하다는 원칙을 언급하고, 알리바바 매도는 세금손실 확정이 주목적이었으며 텐센트 사업이 더 우월하다고 판단해 프로세스(Prosus)로 자금을 옮겼다고 설명한다. 30일 재매수 제한 문제도 언급되었다. 진행자는 텐센트와 프로세스 구조에 대한 과거 영상을 추천하며, 본인은 주가 하락 과정에서 알리바바를 조금씩 추가 매수해 평균단가를 낮췄고 프로세스도 소량 매수했다고 밝힌다. 종목 방향: 알리바바 긍정(추가매수 근거 제시), 텐센트·프로세스 긍정. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
i i think the chinese have behaved very very shrewdly in managing their economy and they've gotten better results than we have in managing our economy and and i think that that will probably continue and sure we all love the kind of civilization we have i'm not saying i want to live in in in china i prefer the united states but i do admire what the chinese have done how can you not do it nobody else has ever taken a big country out of poverty so fast and so long and what i see in china now just staggers staggers me there are factories in china that are just absolutely full of robots and are working beautifully they're no longer using peasant girls to beat the brains out of our little shoe companies in america they are joining the modern world very rapidly and they're getting very skillful at operating charlie munger doubles down on his alibaba position in q4 we've just had the recent announcement come out with the latest 13f from the daily journal court and we can see in this latest announcement he has pretty much doubled his position with alibaba which is good to see you can see that charlie still hires a lot of conviction for this company now this is off the back of q3 where he almost doubled down in his position again as well we're going to have a quick look in a second over on data roma just to have a quick look to see how it's all stacking up within the portfolio and then we're going to finish up by having a quick listen to monash for bride in a recent interview he did over on everything money where he explained his reasoning behind selling out of alibaba which is definitely worth checking out if you have not seen that already anyway with that said let's jump on over to data roma to have a quick look at what charlie mug has been doing dataroam is a fantastic resource if you don't use it currently great way to keep track of and super investors to see what they've been doing over their most recent quarter luckily charlie munger has actually submitted his 13f early so we get a bit of a sneak peek before a lot of the other 13f start coming in so let's jump on and have a quick look at that so we can see it's the only position he's added to in the most recent quarter adding 99.32 to his alibaba holding um the reported price was 118.79 the one downside to these 13fs we don't know exactly where he was buying in at what price but we didn't get a bit of a gauge because we can look at the period to see what the lowest was and what the highest price was within that most recent period so we can see in q1 of 2021 was when charlie munger first brought into alibaba and that was the reported price was around the 226 dollars like i said we don't know exactly if that's when the price he was buying in it but you could say roughly it was around that price point uh q2 of 2021 he didn't add to that position at all but then in q3 last year we saw him add to that position quite substantially um by adding 82.71 and now the reported price around that time was 148 um and then most recently in q4 um this is for last year 2021 he added 99.32 at the reported price of 118.79 so now if we were to add up those three reported prices like i said it's a bit of give and take within these but this will give us a rough idea of his average buy price so if we add up 118 148 and also 226 now if we divide that by three that should give us our average buy price for the daily journal corp um and that would work out around 164 this is just an average sort of buy price now if we look at currently what alibaba is currently trading for it's around 120 so it's still significantly lower than what it's currently trading at today now we're going to jump over and have a quick listen to monash babri to hear his reasoning to why he sold out of his alibaba position this was a most recent interview he did with the everything money youtube channel which i highly recommend going over and checking that out if you haven't seen some of their videos they do some fantastic breakdowns of a lot of different companies so let's jump on over and listen to much for right to hear his reasoning why he sold out of his alibaba position i mean i think one thing to keep in mind about investing in general is there's very strong signal value when someone buys something there is very weak signal value when someone sells something so in general if you're looking at buffett's portfolio and we see that he bought something that is very important to pay attention to but when he sells something that is not as relevant because we buy things only for one reason okay we buy things to make money yeah okay we sell things we sell things for 100 reasons okay so in the case of uh alibaba one of the reasons i sold alibaba was for tax loss harvesting okay and there were actually two reasons why we why we sold alibaba uh probably more than two but two of at least enough to justify it is that uh i had i had studied and learned about tencent and process after we had made the alibaba investment and after we made the alibaba investment the stock went down and process and tencent also went down but we hadn't invested in it yet and it was really simple if i sold alibaba we got the tax loss harvest and one of the problems with tax loss harvesting is you can buy back the same security after 30 days and in the 30 days it can move so it can move against you so you might have bought a stock at 250 and you might have sold it at 180 let's say with the idea in 30 days i'll buy it back but if it goes to 220 in 30 days that's not such a and it's hard to control that right what i did with the 10 cent alibaba deal was i sold alibaba i moved the proceeds to process uh not 10 because process is even better than 10 cent and i never needed to buy alibaba back again because i i thought the business the tencent business was superior to the alibaba business so it was killing multiple birds one store where i'm moving for business that's good to be moved to a business that's even better i get the tax loss harvest and i would have been willing to buy process at the higher price i still go to the lower price so it's all okay what do you think normal investors are missing i feel like i don't have been very adamant about 10 cent but i feel like i'm the fomo is i feel like i'm missing something we've gone over on our show all the divisions they have all the different branches of that company for a dummy like me what are normal investors you think might be missing out or not learning about 10 cent yeah i think i think 10 cent is um it's a it's a mystery because uh they don't really uh explain the business and the reason they don't explain the business is because they don't really want attention they don't want competitors to understand the the mousetrap they have they definitely don't want governments to understand it they really don't want anyone to understand it they just want to be in stealth mode and a lot of businesses like that you know amazon was like that with aws and when the whale finally surfaced they instantly attracted two large competitors who are going at it you know head to head with them and so tencent wants to basically they i can understand why they don't want to talk about it because and and this is the case with many businesses even the one in turkey i think one of the reasons they don't talk about it they feel they would just attract other people into the field that they're really not looking to have attractions to so if they have a great rail business they just want to keep it to themselves they just don't see any upside and a lot of companies do that a lot of companies have they have a kind of balancing act between what the fcc requires and what disclosures they want to make because all the competitors are reading all their annual reports and all of that so it was pretty good to hear from monastery his reasoning behind selling out of his early bubble position um for tax loss harvesting reasons to offset some capital gains that he had within the portfolio and he has funneled a lot of that money back into a company called process now i've made a couple of videos on the channel where i break down process and the arrangement between naspers and tencent and process so i definitely recommend checking those out if you haven't seen those just gives a very good high level overview of the whole arrangement there and the reasoning behind why monash likes tencent as a whole and then the discount you get if you're buying that through the process company to close off today's video i'd love to hear from you guys what have you guys currently been doing have you been adding to your alibaba position like charlie munger or have you sort of more taken a page from monash probably i've seen a number of different videos where people said they're sort of clone managed for brian sold out of the alibaba position for tax loss reasons as well and also putting some of that money into process like i said i have made that video on process if you wanted to check that out as well but i'd be real curious to hear what you guys have been doing or have you just been doing nothing just sitting in a position you're happy with your allocation and just let it sit me personally i have been slowly adding to my level position as the price has been reducing which is reducing my average cost basis on alibaba and i also have taken a small position in process as well anyway with that said that's going to wrap us up for today's video hope you enjoyed if you did make sure you drop a like on the video much appreciate it helps push these videos out a bit further and if you're new here please consider hitting that subscribe button that way you can stay up to date all right stay safe and we'll catch in the next video cheers guys
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