저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 관세 긴장 속 시장 공포가 과도하며 4월 2일 전후 협상/연기 가능성으로 반등 여지가 크다고 주장. 과거 연준 금리인하 사이클에서 무침체 시 주식이 대체로 상승했다는 역사적 데이터 제시. 기관의 코인 축적 흐름을 근거로 강세 시나리오 제시. 영상 후반은 Levi의 유료 트레이딩 그룹 홍보 중심이며, 자막 기준 Tom Lee 발언의 구체적 자산별 가격 예측은 명시적으로 드러나지 않음.
다듬은 글
Like what are we supposed to do over the next 10 days? Uh I mean that's the dilemma, right? Cuz we still have eight trading days till April 2nd. Most investors are are getting just nauseous from the volatility. Uh so they want to throw in the towel, but we also know that markets will bottom or have historically bottomed before the event actually happens.
You know, the best example is 1962. That was a 12-day crisis. The stock market bottomed 7 days into that crisis. Recovered 2/3 of the losses before the resolution. So I I think that's a decent template for today. What about the economy? Put that on top of what we've already heard. Are you concerned about where the economy's going?
Uh I mean it's been pretty shocking how quickly sentiment deteriorated. I can understand for consumers because the president's very divisive, but for CEOs, uh that's been a shock. You know, CEO confidence has fallen and and they've kind of been sitting on their hands. So we know there's a an impulse of a growth shock underway, but if if this is something that doesn't last months, then it's very temporary.
There's something that I like to tell you guys a lot in most of my videos, and that is after pretty much every single massive dump, there is a near equal sized pump. Now, sometimes it happens immediately after, sometimes it takes a couple of days, but during markets that are extremely volatile like this, there is a tremendous amount of opportunities, especially on the red days.
The red days present so many opportunities for you guys to purchase different assets, including XRP, at an extremely low discount and get amazing appreciation almost immediately most of the time. And now we're starting to get a pretty good sentiment and feeling as to how Trump's tariffs affect the markets.
Yes, during the trade war, when people are going back and forth and retaliating and showing their tariffs and then Trump's putting his tariffs off and then he doubles his tariffs, that period of time, it is extremely volatile and there's a lot of red. But if you were buying every single red day, every single time that happened, you were making a lot of money.
And you guys need to pay attention to what Tom Lee is going to talk about in today's video, cuz he's going to give you some information that will absolutely change your life. So hit that like and subscribe button so everybody sees this and you don't miss any important updates in the next 7 days, and let's hear what Tom Lee has to say.
Certainty of all of this has been the, you know, iron fist, maybe olive branch, back to the iron fist. What do you make of it? Well, I think it's and markets should interpret it positively because I think when we talk to our clients, many are viewing tariffs as punitive, potentially protectionist and driving several economies into recession.
Uh this sounds like that we could actually have a positive case scenario with these tariffs. One that's either mutually agreed upon or if it's reciprocal, but maybe a good deal for businesses and I think it would stage set the stage for a much bigger recovery rally than we expect. Well, I mean the S&P had a 40% uh sorry, 10% drawdown.
That's already priced 40% chance of recession. I'd say the markets aren't agreeing necessarily with his view because China, Europe, Canada, Mexico have been massively outperforming the US since February 18th. They Those economies should be tumbling into recession if we have punitive tariffs. So I I think markets are actually more paralyzed than necessarily pessimistic.
And that But But because the market is the economy, I think to the extent that stocks rebound sharply after April 2, if they do, I think it really staves off future economic weakness. the real economy? I think it's a very These days to me, I think it's a really good snapshot of actual sentiment and actually even CEO decisions because as you know, when stocks fall, companies lose confidence.
And as stocks recover, CEOs gain confidence. Uh Europe tends to be single stock concentrated indices. So if you're buying Europe, you're basically buying industrials and financials. If you're buying Korea, you're buying Samsung. So I think if someone is looking for the best companies, they're still going to end up buying the US.
You know, one of the things that we have to keep in mind is this trade deal, if it if it's acceptable, could actually basically sort of blunt this whole issue of trade in the future and it it would actually make the US more attractive again. I think markets were positively surprised by the Fed's move, in part because recent staff papers from the Fed had argued tariffs would actually be multi-year inflationary effects.
So Fed chair Powell's comments yesterday, I think did catch a a lot of folks by surprise just because uh it is a view that markets probably want to hear. That That they'd like to hear that the Fed is viewing tariffs as possibly transitory because that puts them in a position to actually intervene if labor markets start to weaken.
And in fact, that's evident in the SEP because 90% of Fed staffers now see not only risk to growth, the GDP growth forecast, but it was 90% seeing it as downside risk. I think that that sort of the big elephant in the room has been the absolute fear that has become systematic in markets around April 2nd and the tariff deadlines.
And I think that there have been little hints this week that instead of April 2nd being the date of a some sort of annihilation of trade relationships, that we may start to see either deals before then or even delays in implementation. And I think that really investors are going to breathe a sigh of relief because as you can tell, pessimism has become very pervasive because of the fears of what will happen on April 2.
So I think that's a positive. And then the other is I And it's really a technical perspective, but Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, has pointed out there are increasing signs of that we've actually established a tradeable bottom. And that's not only the fact that we declined so quickly, but it's that market breadth has really been expanding and then actually following through in a way that looks like this is not a 10% decline that's leading to a 20%, but a 10% waterfall decline {slash} heart attack for stocks driven by rage selling, and now it's tradeable.
Uh I'd say that probably the final thing that I've seen is, and this is really from our meeting with clients, is that we know there's actually quite a lot of dry powder. Uh many of our clients have raised a lot of cash. I mean, it's also evident in you know, in a lot of the money market balances or prime brokerage de-risking that's taken place.
And it's at a time when investor sentiment has moved far more than is justified by the market moves. You know, we whether you look at AAII or Investors Intelligence, both have registered recession-like readings in sentiment. And so it really creates the room for positive surprise. And that again, I I think it it'll like what you just said, if tariff headlines aren't as bearish and if and there's all this last-minute work um on negotiating something.
And And yesterday uh there was a tweet about how into the night um Hassett and Mnuchin and Navarro were, you know, working on a trade deal. That got so little notice. I think it just tells me markets could be positively surprised. So Tom Lee's prediction of explosive growth makes a lot of sense when you factor in what a lot of these larger organizations are doing.
I mean, take a quick look at BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and many others. Right now they're acquiring record levels of cryptocurrencies. They're investing into ETPs, ETFs, and many other different financial contracts that are going to enable cryptocurrency and truly activate it on the market and allow them to well, basically eat into the market share of a lot of these exchanges.
And a lot of the banks are also doing these types of moves as well. And so, yeah, I kind of see Tom Lee's point. I do think that April 2nd is definitely still a wild card. We fully don't know what's going to happen until then. I mean, Trump could literally decide tomorrow that he's going to say, "I'm doubling everybody's tariffs." He's done it before.
This is not something that's outside of the question and that undoubtedly will cause a lot of market panic as it has happened before. But in the event that it does go the way that Tom Lee is saying, where essentially every single very strong economy. That is for sure. I mean, we're seeing Canadian, European, Chinese, and the US economies all pushing through what is happening here with a lot of strength.
And so, this is overall a great sign that the markets are able to handle a lot of the pressure they've been put under as of lately. And the stock market and crypto market have actually been performing really well in the last couple of days with no major headlines, which means that the general sentiment is well, the price that we're at right now is a pretty good deal.
And so if we continue accumulating at these prices, I think there's a very strong probability that we'll get back to a $109,000 Bitcoin and over $3 XRP, and many other cryptos will absolutely explode as well. But there's a couple other points that Tom Lee does make here, which I think we should definitely take into consideration.
Cuz if we don't, well, it could potentially cost us a lot. So, yeah, once again, uh hit that like button and let's get into what Tom Lee has to say there. Usually happens when the Fed cuts and there's a a no landing scenario or a soft landing. What are we looking at here? Yes, this table shows you how progressively over time when a Fed cuts and there is no recession, it is hugely positive for the equity market.
Because when you get to 3 months out, the seven of seven times when this cutting cycle starts, stocks have never been lower. And 6 months out, never been lower. And 12 months out, never been lower. With a median gain of 16%, which is better than a typical 12-month return for stocks. So, the key is whether Sorry, these just for the listener, these instances, January of '71, October Am I Am I in the right column?
Yes. Fed cut and we don't have a recession. This is what happens. So those examples, January '71, October '84, October 87, June 89, July 95, September 98. That one I remember. July 19, that one I remember, too. Um so, in these instances, if you're not going to have a recession and you have the Fed cutting over the next 3 to 6 months, it's 100% historical win ratio for stocks.
Yeah, that's really powerful. That's right. And it kind of defies how, as you know, last skeptics said, "Oh, the Fed has never had a soft landing ever." But there's been many instances of no landing. So, I think it's almost People say that? Never had a soft landing? Yeah, they Well, you know, they're still I guess I've heard Well, how many times has inflation been above 9%?
Twice? Once? Yeah. Yeah, that's right. It's only happened One or two, and right, come on. So, what are we doing here? We're talking a lot about the perfect macro backdrop. Stocks are breaking out, everything is kumbaya. What do you think are some of the What What are the biggest risks that we should perhaps pay attention to?
Well, we surveyed our clients yesterday. Um like 1,200 responses. And the The top concern is geopolitical. So, is Come on, it's it's always that. Yeah, and you know, it's hard to actually make an investment actionable unless it's World War III, right? Um and the second is the elections, that they that And this is like something where it's like a little bit how you want to position around it, but most people can't have conviction about what they do until they know who's in the White House.
Even though it shouldn't Professionals or regular people? It's the in between. So, let's say it's a family office. Okay. Where they, as you know, family offices, I'd say as a cohort, probably were more cautious last 2 years. So, now they're see the Fed cutting and they want to actually invest. But they want to time it even So, they have to make the second decision to get back in.
And so, I think they want to wait till after the election. I see they're playing it like Buffett. No, but it's a long-term, short-term. A family office is a lot of money, but very often answerable to one or two family members. Yeah. And it's not like if you piss off that client, all right, you know, it sucks, I'll just deal with my other clients.
You only have one client. And if you have a client where you know they'll be mad if you get really aggressive in front of the election, and then there's an election-related sell-off, you're just not going to risk it. Yeah. And they want to preserve their capital. You got to buy higher. That's right.
It's they want to preserve capital. And also, then they're also glomming onto the idea, well, you know what, EM, especially China, has lagged and they don't mind being late, or they might even be involved there because it's not election-sensitive, right? So, this is once again a point that I very strongly agree with Tom Lee on.
Basically, the Fed will manipulate narratives in order to get a specific outcome that they are trying to portray to the public in some capacity, right? And And this has been seen time and time again. The Fed wants you to think, "Oh, recessions don't exist, depressions don't exist. It's going to be a soft landing, there's going to be no landing, everything's going to be absolutely perfect." But when we look at the actual data and we go over the historical examples, it really paints a really solid picture that yeah, the Fed at a certain point will absolutely be forced into rate cutting, which basically means the money printer goes on, more liquidity enters into the markets.
And we all know what happens when that happens. It's not an immediate effect, but generally the 12-month return and the 6-month return following quantitative easing is absolutely astronomical. And we Yes, we did see a little bit of this last year once the Fed basically turned those money printers on.
We saw the markets absolutely explode. And well, the chances of this happening again is very, very high this year. I mean, it's going to happen sometime. Two rate cuts are expected. And those two rate cuts are going to have a massive influence on how the markets grow up until 2025 and even early 2026.
So, with all of that being said, guys, we want to take maximum advantage of this, and there's no better place to do that than my premium trading groups, which all of you can join for free. We're getting up to 400% gains every single month. And all you have to do is press a couple of buttons. And getting access to all of these trades that I have in my Discord and Telegram is very, very easy.
Number one, you just sign up on one of our two partner exchanges, which give you amazing benefits, BTCC or Bitfinex, whichever one you currently are not on. You get 10% deposit bonus there, 25% discount there. Absolutely phenomenal bonuses. You then just need to deposit at least $100 worth of any crypto, transfer from Coinbase, whatever exchange you're on to your new exchange, Bitfinex or BTCC.
$100 minimum, you can do 100,000 if you want to. I can guarantee you these guys are going to be giving you a better deal than Coinbase is with these types of bonuses they do give, which is basically just free money. Then once you've done those two steps, you submit your name, your email, and your exchange user ID.
And if you have any troubles along the way, I have two tutorial videos right here as well. The link to Levi Crypto Crusaders is down below, so make sure you click on that link, you sign up to get up to 400% gains. And yeah, don't wait because this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. This bull run is insane.
It is the bull run where institutions, banks, everyone is getting onboarded onto cryptocurrency. So, let's make some money. Hit that like and subscribe button so you don't miss a single crucial update. Click on the link down below for Levi Crypto Crusaders, and I'll see you guys in the Discord or the Telegram. Peace out.
Comments 0