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We believed that a supercycle was coming for tokenization and cryptocurrencies, and that Ethereum was the most neutral infrastructure due to the size of the developer community and the fact that it was running 100% uninterrupted. I think Ethereum should surpass its all-time high. So, I think it will be above 5,000.
I think Bitcoin will be above 100,000, and if that's the case, Ethereum will be around 7,500. I think this cycle will be much, much larger than the ones we've seen in the past. I mean, in reality, people are not optimistic enough . I think you will see huge fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices. What if Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark is just the beginning?
Market strategist Tom Lee believes that the next crypto bull cycle could lead to significant price changes as institutional capital flows into digital assets. But is Bitcoin preparing for another historic rally, or are investors underestimating the risks? Today we analyze Tom Lee's bold market prediction , the forces driving cryptocurrency adoption, and what could happen next.
Stay with us. Please take the time . We made a big bet on Ethereum because at the time we considered it the payment network of the future. So, we believed that a supercycle was coming for tokenization and cryptocurrencies, and that Ethereum was the most neutral infrastructure due to the size of the developer community and the fact that it was running 100% uninterrupted.
And over the last 15 months, I think everything has been going according to plan. For us, Ethereum remains the most neutral infrastructure. I think they are showing a lot of success. And the token price is 2,700. It has remained almost at the same level for 5 years. And, as you know, the longer the consolidation period, the more powerful the breakout will be .
So, part of our thesis is that Ethereum is significantly undervalued, and I think in this bull cycle it could easily reach 25,000 or 50,000 per token. What do you think the price of ETH will be at the end of the year? You know, I think Ethereum should surpass its all-time high. So, I think it will be above 5,000.
I think Bitcoin will be above 100,000. And if that's the case, I think Ethereum will be around 7,500. Are there any indicators in the market that you pay attention to? For example, what do you typically analyze to assess infrastructure usage and form your views? Well, I think the crypto world is already a pretty thematic story.
I mean, in 2016-2017, that “bull” market was an ICO story. But these were mostly retail investors. But it was large-scale. That is, it didn't take many people to push Bitcoin to 18,000. And already in the "bull" market of 2019-2021, a lot was based on NFTs, which were, you know, the latest innovation .
But this was again mostly a retail boom. You have seen significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices. However, this “bullish” cycle comes at a time when institutions are creating a lot of products. And I think we're seeing real innovation. For example, today Ondo announced its entry into private markets.
These are bigger players and bigger capital. I think this cycle will be much more powerful than anything we've seen in the past. In fact, I think people aren't even optimistic enough . I think we are in for a huge jump in crypto asset prices. What is the thesis of the next cycle? What risks should you be monitoring over the next year if you were talking to your CIO about where we are in the cycle and how to monitor it?
Well, I think CIOs in traditional finance today face an existential question. How many of you have heard of National Cash Register, NCR? They were giants in the mainframe world. In 1980, they actually controlled computing. But they didn't switch to personal computers, you know ? And how many of you have heard of MCI?
They were leaders in telecommunications because they offered long distance calling and calling cards. They couldn't switch to mobile technology and simply disappeared. I think many large financial institutions today, if they don't create a crypto infrastructure or crypto strategy, will become the "NCRs" and "MCIs" of our era.
What areas do you think will allow real assets from institutions to be brought onto the blockchain and push this cycle forward? Well, I think investors always value liquidity. They like to transfer money cheaper and have an advantage in obtaining information . I believe that tokenization provides a huge advantage.
Perhaps more importantly, tokenization will play a role in decomposing assets into components. For example, last week at the KBW conference, the company announced that it was allowing trading in Waymo shares , which are owned by Google. This is a huge innovation happening in blockchain, and I believe it is something of a mass market.
I think people would like to be able to buy shares of, you know, Elon Musk. They want to buy Starlink from SpaceX. They want full autonomous driving from Tesla. And I think these are the things that can really grow the market. How quickly do you think other issuers will start joining, because there is a lot of demand right now, and I think a lot of asset managers are interested.
This is a way to access new capital. It is also a way to launch new types of products. What other components of the value chain do you think will start interacting next? Well, I think we have to realize that tokenization is a real disruption because you can tokenize almost everything a bank does. Is n't that right?
So, you are not just tokenizing assets, you are tokenizing all the functional services of the bank. So I understand why asset managers are moving to tokenization, because their fee model is not disrupted, you know? It's just an asset management fee. But if a company makes money from capital charges, trust transactions, or insurance, and in a tokenized world you don't have to worry about that , I think that poses a huge risk.
I think that's why if you look at tokenization, the asset management world is embracing it, and Wall Street in general is going to be very slow. How do you think the financial system has changed ? What will be new? What will become history? I mean, it's worth remembering: the financial system is half of the economy.
So, everything that happens in the real world must have its equivalent in the form of a financial transaction. But in a world where there are agents and robots, I think the financial system will become even bigger. So we may see in the future that the financial services industry will become the largest sector of the economy, because agents and robots are part of this digital world.
But I believe that the success of the crypto industry lies in the democratization of access, because, for example, in the US today, 46% of Americans do not even have a bank account . A debit card or prepaid card is their bank account. I mean, it's a very expensive way for people to store money. Despite his optimism, Lee acknowledged that the cryptocurrency industry has important problems to solve .
One of the biggest is trust. Institutional investors manage significant amounts of capital and cannot afford to ignore operational risks. They need confidence that assets will be protected, transactions will be processed properly, and legal obligations will be met. Lee emphasized issues such as private key management, cybersecurity, financial compliance, and sanctions verification.
Well, first I will confirm that there is a positive energy here. The last 12 months have been grueling, as it has been a cryptowinter, but the KBW of last week and this week shows real change. You know, we are again in the stage of a full-fledged " bull" market. And I think it's good to be in Asia because we know that things like tokenization, and the adoption of blockchain and crypto by banks—a lot of that is happening in Asia.
So this is the right place. What are you seeing in on-chain markets today that many traditional financial institutions aren't seeing yet? I think that incumbent institutions never notice disruptive innovations. I have dedicated my entire career to precisely these destroyers of established orders. In the early 90s, I was involved in wireless communications, which became a disruptive technology for local and long-distance telephony .
Telecom operators, like asset managers in the traditional world, did not understand where these changes would come from. I think history is repeating itself today . I think that banks today tend to think that their clients, wealthy people , are the older generation. They want to keep their customers, but as you know, the future is shaped by young people, and they see the world very differently.
What do you think is needed to make real change, to get us beyond just talking about on-chain capital and to bring more traditional capital pools into it? First of all, the market is huge. It's at least $200 trillion, at a minimum, but it's also growing at about $7 trillion a year. Of course? I mean, just think about it for a minute.
Every year, another $7 trillion in liquid assets emerge, looking for somewhere to invest. So, for example, when you hear people talking about hyperscalers and AI, and how they're going to spend a trillion a year, the money is there, because there's already 7 trillion in new money ready to fund anything.
But I believe that most of the wealth and most of these liquid assets are controlled by wealthy people who want to protect their capital. And they want to have, you know, higher profitability rates than usual. So I think part of this significant change is to convince people that moving tokens to the blockchain will outperform traditional ways of distributing capital.
And I think, for example, a lot of wealthy people invest in private equity and private credit. But it is illiquid, and in fact the profits there turned out to be lower than expected. So I think the idea that tens of trillions of dollars have been invested in funds that pay out after 4, 5, or 10 years, and when you get your money back, you've made about the same amount as you would in a money market fund.
This is a very large potential market. But I think another big obstacle, or something that needs to change, is that the crypto industry needs to look more mature; because I believe that anyone who is going to engage in tokenized trading or assets should feel that they are working with trusted partners, that their money is safe and will not disappear due to a hack.
Things like private key management and concerns about FinCEN and sanctions because your tokens could be mixed with assets from sanctioned countries. So, there are a lot of little things, but I think once those framework conditions are in place, things will start moving very quickly. I wanted to ask if you would like to share with the audience how you compare the capital that was involved back then, on a relative scale, to today, and how you think that fits into the cycle?
Yes. I really want to offer some perspective because I have been following the markets for 34 years. Actually, 36 years old. I'm not sure. That 's a long time, more than a generation. And most of the time I worked with institutional investors, that is, with fund managers, professional financial managers.
What you need to remember is that the average age of a fund manager is around 35 years old. So, that means this fund manager probably got into this business in 2016. Of course? So they have only seen the light since 2016. And, by the way, in 2016, the fund manager who was working then started his career in 2006.
This means that if someone has 10 years of experience, their retrospective view does not cover other financial bubbles. For example, the average financial manager today did not manage money during the 2008 global financial crisis . And the average financial manager today didn't manage money during the dot-com bubble.
So, since I've actually been covering the markets for this whole time. If you think there 's an AI bubble today, okay? First of all, this is a common opinion. I've never seen a bubble where everyone thinks it's a bubble. Of course? Think about this for a minute. If you all think it's a bubble, then you're probably not pushing things to the point where they become a bubble because you all think it's a bubble.
And I think that's why when I look at AI, I think we just have to make some measurements. ChatGPT was launched in 2023. So, for 3 years now, we have been developing innovations that come from artificial or superintelligence. The public internet was launched, essentially, in 1994, okay? And at the same time, mobile networks were being built .
The total amount of Internet, mobile communications, and mobile phone development in 2026 dollars was about 35 trillion. AI infrastructure spending is around 30 trillion. So it costs about the same . That's the thing. Cisco stock didn't peak until 2000, okay? Between 1993 and 2000, Cisco fell by 50% twice.
So, both times you almost crashed twice. And I think we're basically in 1997 today. I think we are far from a bubble. There's one more thing to remember: wireless has been an S-curve, growing exponentially for 25 years. The peak of stocks occurs in the 10th year of the cycle. So, I think the AI cycle, even if it lasts 25 years, the bubble will probably be around 2033, the peak of the bubble.
Tom Lee's forecast presents a compelling vision of how technology can transform global financial markets. His thesis on Ethereum is built around the possibility that blockchain networks will become an important infrastructure for tokenized assets and institutional finance. His broader crypto thesis suggests that the participation of large financial institutions could make the next market cycle different from those that came before.
At the same time, his analysis of artificial intelligence highlights the importance of understanding technological cycles in the long term.
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