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2024년 1월 기준 미국 상업용 부동산 부채 1.4조달러(2025년 말까지 1.5조달러 만기) 위기와 경기침체 우려를 다룬다. 마이클 버리·워런 버핏·스티브 행크의 신중한 시각을 소개하며 버리의 S&P500·나스닥100 풋옵션 베팅을 언급한다. 금리 인하 시점에 대해서는 2024년 3월 무렵을 거론하되 불확실하다고 한다. 결론은 분산투자와 과열 종목 회피다.
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I don't want to eat any more garbage Banks Kevin o on what's wrong in 2024 these big banks are doomed to fail the Shark Tank Judge Kevin o had some heavy words to say about the US economy crisis is this a sign that we are on the verge of an economic storm there's a massive $1.4 trillion problem hanging over the US commercial real estate market like a looming Financial earthquake what makes it scarier is that a whopping 1.5 trillion of this debt is due before the end of 2025 believe it or not it will affect the US economy too especially the working class as interest rates increase a ground shaking correction in real estate looms large casting a dark shadow over the financial world in the United States what's going on today not only will we be talking about the current conditions of the housing market but also the US economy and the Poli iCal landscape currently that can drive the United States into the red zone of recession how can you tackle this recession stay tuned to know how Times Like These are scary especially with how big of an impact they can have but hey don't worry just subscribe to our Channel and we will keep you in check with the most up-to-date movements in the US economy Beyond housing market the US economy on the other hand the US economy stands at a crtical point where a debate regarding the ghost of recession has unfolded among politicians economists and financial professionals which drastically affects the lives of you and I while the typical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product or GDP which showed up in the first half of 2022 the National Bureau of economic research has another opinion according to the NBR a recession says that it is a significant and protracted decline in economic activity across various sectors by this measure the US was not in a recession in 2022 and the current assessment maintains this stance this is at least what they tell us the Federal Reserve which was originally determined to increase interest rates until inflation went down a lot has changed its plan because the economy is slowing down and Silicon Valley Bank the second biggest bank failure in US history collapsed the FED is thinking about stopping the rate hikes it will surely affect even an average US citizen this matters for regular people because when Banks fail it can make it harder to borrow money affecting things like loans for homes or cars it can also make it more difficult for businesses to grow potentially leading to job losses or economic uncertainty for everyday citizens this could even lead to a situation where it's tough for regular people to get small loans whether it's for buying a home or starting a small business and let's not forget that interest rates the key economic lever are tied to the housing market a crisis could make the Federal Reserve rethink its take on interest rate hikes impacting broader economic conditions If the Fed shifts towards a more accommodative monetary policy it could influence borrowing costs consumer spending and business investment it just doesn't end here though inflation another crit iCal economic element is influenced by housing related factors the potential fall and property valuations may ease inflationary pressures but the broader Economic Consequences such as job losses and reduced consumer spending could counterbalance this effect this shows how almost anything happening on a governmental level can affect each individual the problem skin without Soul the main issue is that these buildings are pretty much empty and don't have much value left they're running on empty both literally and figuratively the impending challenge when the time comes to refinance the road ahead may be tough leaving void structures but no soul or Workforce for an average US citizen this narrative takes a personal turn a Cornerstone of the community grappling with the aftershocks O's Revelation says around 40% of these banks financial Stakes are entangled with these uncertain structures a housing crisis could also lead to a downturn in construction and related sectors again resulting in job losses yes the same job losses which have already stressed the upcoming youth to this extent but question is who is to blame for this Biden's mismanagement in us and his decision making a hot take there's a clear conclusion that something terribly wrong is happening with management of economy on broader scale it could be seen as Biden's leadership faces a stark reality painted by disapproving statistics with an approval rating of just 38% and a disapproval rate roaring to 54% his standing is notably worse than most of the previous presidents Biden's governance and his handling of the economy is a sore Point as only 37% of Americans approve while a significant 58% expressed dissatisfaction the skepticism extends to the notion of Biden running for reelection with a staggering 70% of Americans signaling that they do not want him to return to power these figures paint a picture of a presidency grappling with severe public disillusionment criticism doesn't stop at policy disagreements it dives into personal attributes Biden's age appearance and presence have become talking points feeding into a narrative of a leader who might not be physically or mentally fit for the job this emphasis on personal characteristics raises doubts about his Effectiveness in making critical decisions for the nation the hyperarc Cape is evident with only 4% approval from Republican voters underscoring a deep and wide political divide that may hinder any bipartisan efforts now you may ask why we are targeting Biden in a US economy crisis video while the GDP growth in the United States outpaces other industrialized nations questions linger about the direct impact of Biden's policies on the average citizen's well-being inflation rates though peaking earlier and falling sooner in the US compared to other G7 countries have hit crucial sectors like supermarkets and gas stations raising concerns about the effectiveness of economic strategies with an already outstanding $33 trillion the huge chunk addition of 1.9 trillion dollar to the national debt by 2031 projected under the American Rescue plan shows that ill effect on the long-term consequences and the burden it may place on future Generations stay tuned in the video because what comes ahead is not just a problem for Biden or his presidency it's a problem for every individual in the United States the debt that is just an avalanche going down the mountain $1.4 trillion debt fueled threat the looming $1.4 trillion threat hanging over the US commercial real estate market is nothing short of Staggering setting the stage for a potential Finance earthquake with a substantial portion of this debt $1.5 trillion coming due before the end of 2025 the urgency of refinancing risks is on doorstep Morgan Stanley analysts are suggesting that the maturity wall is not only sizable but front-loaded intensifying Associated risks the situation is intensified even more when we talk about Rising interest rates and defaults which have already already taken a toll on commercial mortgage back Securities deals witnessing an 80% drop in sales without government backing in the first quarter as the amount of money that needs to be paid back goes up in the next four years reaching the highest point at $550 billion in 2027 things get more stressful but what do experts think of the current situation if we talk about recession there's only one household name that comes to mind legendary Michael bur Michael bur's concern is the foundation of the US economy really built on Shaky Ground how credible is bur recently even back in June 2022 prices were going up but bur said they'd slow down by the end of the year people thought he was being a bit strange but in December 2022 prices did slow down to 6.5% now in the new year bur's back on Twitter saying prices are still going down and surprise surprise in May they're at 4% bur also said some big money problems might happen like a crash and a tough time for jobs called a recession especially when the warning comes from someone who is a veteran at guessing markets some of what the Scion Asset Management Chief predicted hasn't happened yet he said there would be a huge crash in the stock market but it didn't go as low as he thought he also said that American families would run out of savings by the end of the year because prices were going up and borrowing money was getting expensive he warned this could make people spend less and hurt businesses in January he said the US would probably go into a recession making the government and the Federal Reserve do things to boost the economy but these predictions are still about to unfold Buffett and bur's parallel opinions it's not just bu who has has this concern the legendary investor Warren Buffett shares the same concern too Warren Buffett send shock waves through financial markets with his recent bearish move and Economist Steve Hank believes they might be gearing up for challenging times ahead in the last quarter Buffett's Berkshire hathway made significant moves selling a net 8 billion of stocks and slowing down its BuyBacks this strategic shift resulted in a remarkable 133% increase in its cash reserves reaching a near record $157 billion over the past 3 quarters Berkshire has offloaded a net 33 billion in stocks leading to a substantial 38 billion surge in its Cash Cash equivalents and treasury bills Steve Hank a professor of Applied economics at John's Hopkins University sees Buffett's actions in the second quarter as indicative of an anticipation of a potential recession coupled with the observation that stocks are currently overpriced Hank also pointed out that Buffett's moves align with his historical pattern of choosing cash when storm clouds Loom on the economy this approach allows him to be prepared for seizing opportunities when the market presents Bargains during challenging times the cautionary moves made by these seasoned individuals underscore the importance of paying attention to their signals as their experience and strategic decisions carry weight and insight that shouldn't be dismissed lightly no matter how rich or poor you are Steve Hank also has a notable history having served as the president of Toronto trust Argentina during its Peak Performance in 1995 as the world's best performing emerging market mutual fund let's not forget that during the 2008 financial crisis Buffett sealed deals with companies like Goldman Sachs General Electric Harley-Davidson and Mars showcasing his strategic approach to opportunities in times of economic tough time on the other hand Michael bur's Scion Asset Management recently revealed put options against S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 index funds totaling $1.6 billion in notional value as of June while the actual cost of these bearish Wagers is a fraction of that figure it represents a significant bet considering the rest of bur's portfolio was valued at around $11 million at the time bur has a track record of betting against high-profile entities like Elon musk's Tesla and Kathy Woods Arc invest Steve Hank who was also a former adviser to President Ronald Reagan expressed support for bur's latest move considering it a wise decision Hank has previously shared his view that stocks appear expensive compared to bonds and he also anticipates a recession hitting the US economy in the first half of 2024 these insights from both Hank and Buffett along with bur's strategic moves show show us the cautious tone and their assessments of the current economic landscape Steven Graham's newsletter interesting take Elon Musk the money Guru of today sends out tweets that are like puzzles for people who love watching the stock market for example he tweeted something with a missing word and when people figured out the missing word was tender it seemed like he might want to buy Twitter this was the time everybody knew that musk's tweets can seriously shake up the stock market Market Steven Graham has stated this very clearly in his newsletter on Market sentiment not just musk the Federal Reserve or the money boss in the US also talks in a way that affects the economy Jerome pal the head of the Federal Reserve recently talked about changing interest rates the FED wants to control inflation which is when prices go up and people are trying to figure out what their tricky words mean for the economy this may be just a few words for the one on the higher table but it terribly messes up the daily lives of people and small investors the question here is are the changes in interest rates doing what they're supposed to do for prices it's a bit tricky because some things are getting less expensive but others like car insurance and sports events are getting more expensive like housing prices are going up which is surprising but there's hope that if interest rates go down housing might become more affordable again as we say goodbye to 2023 the housing prices went up a lot even even though other things didn't but if interest rates go down soon things might get better and housing prices could go back to normal the stock market had a good year in 2023 the future of the stock market depends on something called the 10-year treasury rate which is a bit complicated but if things with inflation and interest rates get better the stock market might also show some good signs it's a little deadly dance of assets against inflation especially in times of recession but we have to be patient according to Steven Graham people who have a lot of money to invest are waiting to see what happens they have $5.7 trillion that's a huge amount just sitting there idle ready to be invested when the time is right but predicting exactly what's going to happen is tough some experts guessed right and others got it wrong when they tried to predict how the stock market would do the big question is when will interest rates go down Jerome pal from the Federal Reserve hasn't given a clear answer but people think it might happen around March 2024 it's all a bit uncertain and po wants to be careful because the economy is still a bit shaky so what should regular people do with their money in this uncertain time what should you do now the best idea is to spread your money around not just in one place investing in stocks save some bonds maybe buy a house and a little bit in things like Bitcoin this way no matter what happens you're ready for both good and not so good times it's like doing a careful dance between being hopeful and being prepared in conclusion Grahams delivered understanding of market dynamics urging readers to transcend surface level information so the only thing you should do now is to carefully diversify portfolio by doing thorough market research this also includes staying away from the companies that already are doing dry business in the market especially those who already have a virtual competitor cruising any stocks that are on a hype train driven by just public statements He suggests taking a smart and varied approach which makes sense given the uncertainty in the financial world right now the verdict diversify your portfolio no matter how complex it is always make sure to never get get caught in the fomo that's what the most seasoned investors like Warren Buffett and Michael bur will tell you if it's a recession that is about to come or an economic slowdown that is happening no matter what it is you have to be aware of everything that happens in the market right now stay away from overpriced stocks unless you bought them really low wrapping up for today we genuinely believe this video holds keys to improve your financial game if it clicked for you show some love with a thumbs up and there's more videos on the way especially on the finance world right now subscribe now to unlock a wealth of insights because spoiler alert a game-changing 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