저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 생전 경고(미국 상업용 부동산 부실, 과도한 인플레이션과 화폐 발행, 달러 가치 하락, 과열된 주식 거래와 암호화폐 투기 비판)를 소개하며 미국 경제 위기 가능성을 강조한다. 구체적 투자 대상 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없고, 저축을 자산에 투자하고 변동성을 견디라는 일반적 조언으로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
if you were lucky enough to hear Charlie Munger rant about the horrific financial crisis America would suffer at any point in late 2023 you might have gone immediately to hide in a deep cave just before he died Charlie chatted about why the states would soon suffer economically and what you could do to cushion your cave not even Chicken Little who once warned anyone who would listen that the sky was falling had as many awful things to say as Munger about the USA's sad economic future just before he passed away at age9 99 less than a year ago only 34 days before his centennial celebration mind you Munger by the way was waren Buffett's right-hand man for decades as well as one of the most famous and successful investors in The Chronicles of mankind back at the time Charlie was receiving a top education within the pretty ivy colored walls of Harvard Law School and you're absolutely right to guess that was quite a few decades in the past the New York Stock Exchange managed to trade a million shares of stock a day at the end of 2023 when Munger finally went to a better place the same Market came to witness billions of transactions in a single period of 24 hours nobody needs a market that's so liquid the Burkshire hathway hono argued in his harsh words this wretched excess is exactly what wrecked the US economy at the tail end of the Roaring 20s that kind of wicked excess then ended up in the Great Depression one of the worst periods in American and world history and the Great Depression gave the world a monster named Hitler wow was Munger really warning that the economic taal spin he predicted at the end of 2023 would present us with another viciously evil dictator who could possibly do away with Millions while leading to the economic ruin of the United States the world's biggest and most excessive Market but hold on for a minute what Charlie actually said about America's insatiable appetite for stock trading near the end of his ripe old life was this what we're getting is wretched excess and danger for the country and everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences it's fair to ask who was this crazy and humorous character named Charlie Munger anyway and how exactly did he make such an incredible amount of cash investing conservatively and why should we listen to his preent words especially if we find out from other trustworthy sources that the massive American economy May indeed crash tomorrow after all Charlie's already 6 ft under in other words he's dead and long gone Mr Munger did live brilliantly for almost 100 years it's his partner though Warren Buffett who usually gets the lion Sheriff credit for creating one of the planet's biggest most renowned investment companies birkshire Hathaway the firm's based in Omaha Nebraska right in the heart of the prolific us corn and hog belt in fact go to that spot today and you'll surely find almost nothing but corn and Hogs as far as the I could see Buffett became legendary for his conservative approach to money management but without his Balancing Act Charlie Warren wouldn't have only eaten breakfast at McDonald's to save money he might have been flipping burgers there to make 's meat in fact Munger talked Buffett out of so many misconceived moves over the years that the latter called him the Abominable no man since their company and its Investments made the two seniors money hand over fist for decades along with thousands of their disciples who attended their courses and seminars received their straightforward newsletter and benefited from their downhome advice they were allowed to carry on telling truly corny jokes and Tall Tales one such yarn from Munger went like this now I've got a story that I tell a young man comes to see Mozart and says I want to compose Symphonies and Mozart says you're too young to compose Symphonies he's 20 years old so the youngster replies but you were composing Symphonies when you were 10 years old and Mozart says yeah but I wasn't running around asking other people how to do it Charlie quipped yet one key reason Buffett and Munger became such cult investment Heroes was precisely this down-to-earth transparent approach both often said there was no secret to their success they just kept repeating some tried andrue platitudes about hard work and frugality in particular the two investment gurus were notorious for skimping on expensive personal stuff in munger's case he went through life avoiding traps by doing things like living in the same Humble House for 70 years you might guess that new fangled Investments like cryptocurrency weren't too appealing to a cautious investor like Munger and you'd be right sometimes I call it crypto crappo sometimes I call it crypto it's just ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff it's totally absolutely crazy stupid gambling Charlie gave his potent opinion to CNBC indeed Munger went on to state that avoiding crazy at all costs was a crucial cause for his longevity and success all right so you say you want to last long and succeed too then you might as well hear some more investment advice that Charlie offered Warren actually Charlie threatened Warren is more like it Buffett recalled a time he had to replace a corporate Jet and he wrote to investors to justify the $6.7 million price tag but Munger didn't like the lavish expense one bit recounted Warren in the letter Charlie's idea of traveling in style is an air conditioned bus a luxury he steps up to only when bargain fairs are in effect Buffett concluded at the end of the day Buffett claimed that Munger forced him to change his thinking in very basic ways he made the big boss Focus fiercely on buying wonderful companies at fair prices rather than fair companies at wonderful prices what was a fair price to Munger it was definitely a reflection of his upbringing during the horrors of the Great Depression he earned all of 20 cents an hour busting his butt at at a grocery store adjusted for inflation that's a measly $4 an hour today go right ahead and try to hire somebody now for those peanuts best of luck but let's get back to the message at the beginning of this video we don't want you to have to stay in that cave forever even if Charlie warned that Armageddon was coming to the US economy at any moment in his 99 years on this Earth Munger saw just about everything and weathered every imaginable Financial Fiasco a little like Chicken Little he warned that the coming crisis could be the worst ever for the USA and its Global cohorts according to Charlie the sky really could fall on us at any time due to a disastrous combination of specific modern circumstances first Munger moaned about the sorry state of the commercial real estate market in the US at the end of 2023 Banks were a wash in bad real estate loans and the storm brewing threatened to swallow financial institutions in his last shareholders meeting while still alive he reminded us bluntly buildings don't go go away but owners do second Charlie became even more of a snarling bear as he spoke of a worse kind of inflation than ever before plaguing the US economy different from the old days when the feds vulker was allowed to do whatever was needed to keep nasty inflationary pressure under control poell doesn't pack the same punch said Munger finally with all this inflation of foot in the world the fed and Nations like Japan and Latin American leaders simply print too much money char called this action nothing short of seductive it could be just like when Germany's viar Republic tried to do the same and Hitler suddenly found his way to brutal power inflation will rear its ugly head once and for all and the gates will lay open for more seductive dictators what did Munger utter the d-word yet again before he left us and what will happen if the US dollar goes all the way to zero as Charlie also forecast after all the dollar has lost 86% of its value since the US left the gold standard in 1971 following all these dire warnings by the recently departed you'd probably like to know what we could do to survive besides basically hide inside our caves and hope we have enough supplies one thing you can do is make absolutely sure your savings account is invested in assets also consider a general warning that Munger repeated throughout his career this is for whomever wants to live in the world of investing and Achieve long-term success get ready for the big ups and downs and the periods when there's a lot of Agony and other periods when there's a bone you just have to learn to live through them
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