Ken Fisher on What the 2020 Presidential Election Means for the Stock Market

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결론: 대선 결과에 따라 선거연도와 취임연도의 주가 흐름이 번갈아 달라지며, 두 해를 합치면 대체로 비슷하다는 주장. 핵심 주장: 공화당 후보가 이기면 선거연도에는 주식시장이 좋고 취임연도에는 부진하며, 민주당 후보가 이기면 선거연도에는 부진하고 취임연도에는 좋다고 설명함. 원리: 선거연도에는 공화당 당선 기대로 희망이 반영되고, 취임연도에는 대통령이 생각만큼 정책을 실현하기 어려워 실망이 나타난다고 봄. 민주당은 반대로 선거연도에 반기업 우려가 가격에 반영된 뒤 취임연도에 덜 나쁜 결과로 긍정적 서프라이즈가 된다고 설명. 근거: 과거 선거연도 수익률은 공화당 집권기가 민주당보다 훨씬 좋았고, 취임연도는 민주당이 공화당보다 훨씬 좋았다고 언급. 두 해를 합산하면 대체로 비슷함. 예측 및 베팅: 50대50 가정에서 트럼프 재선에 기울 것이라는 견해를 밝혔으나, 베팅 시장 확률은 이미 가격에 반영되어 있어 베팅은 권하지 않음. 조건/리스크: 이는 정치 일정에 따른 타이밍 현상으로 제시되며, 미국 정치 시스템상 대통령의 정책 실현이 제한적이라는 점이 전제임. 언급 종목/자산: 개별 종목 언급 없음. 미국 주식시장 전반의 방향성만 다룸. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 선거 사이클에 따른 장기적 패턴을 강조함.

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01. right about this time in an election cycle every four years people ask me who do i think will get elected president and what will that mean for stocks after some serious study i have narrowed this down to the republican and democratic nominee i think there's a high likelihood one of them wins i'm being facetious of course but the way it works is sort of like this most all of the time with very few exceptions and there are some exceptions but i don't think they apply this time when the republican nominee wins the market tends to do better in the election year and not as well in the inaugural year and when the democrat nominee wins the market tends to do worse in the election year but better in the inaugural year market-oriented investors tend to have a little bit of a sense which you can feel right now that the democrat will be more anti-business more anti-stock market more anti-free market and that fear gets priced into the election year and then in the inaugural year they find out that we have this complicated system of government where it's actually pretty hard for any president to put that much through congress and the supreme court and so any of those fears become a positive surprise because less bad happens than they worried about in the election year just conversely when we elect the republican there tends to be more hope in the election year that would be this year because the notion is typically that that one is more business friendly more free-market-oriented more anti-regulatory etc and that hope is in the election year but then when you get to the inaugural year the returns aren't as good because those hopes get dashed as people find out the president that president as a republican can't do as much as they hoped and they become disappointed when you actually look at election year returns of republicans as they've been elected they've been far better than democrats and when you look at democrat in the inaugural year they've been much better than the republicans the two together tend to be awash it's a kind of a timing issue if you ask me right now on a 50-50 bet what i bet on the democrat or the republican i bet on president trump because usually we re-elect presidents and right now if you look at betting markets the betting markets say that president trump should have a slight advantage over joe biden or any other nominee the democrats might put up so i think that on a 50 50 bet but i wouldn't bet on it in the betting markets because you're likely to lose it's probably already pre-priced don't worry about that worry about the trend i described which is if we elect a republican better in the election year worse in the inaugural year if we elect democrat worse in the election year better in the inaugural year the two years together tend to work out about the same you