저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 연준의 대규모 채권 매입으로 회사채 가격은 인위적으로 떠받쳐져 있으며, 결국 손실이 이연될 뿐이라는 비관적 시각. 연준 개입 배경: 2020년 3월 신용시장 경색과 유동성 붕괴로 투자등급 회사채, 신흥국 채권, 정크본드 시장이 2009년 최악일 때보다 더 나빴다고 진단. 연준의 정책 평가: 1913년 연준법상 허용되지 않는 회사채 매입까지 실행했고, 이는 2008~2009년 금융위기 때보다 더 나아간 조치라고 지적. 3월 이후 양적완화 규모는 과거 다년간 계획 전체보다 크다고 언급. 회사채 시장 전망: 연준 매입으로 가격이 실제 부도 회수가치보다 높게 올라 있어, 이런 자산을 보유한 투자자는 원금 손실을 볼 수 있다고 주장. LQD·HYG 관찰: 연준 발표 후 LQD는 급등했으나 4월 9일 이후 HYG 가격은 사실상 오르지 않아, 현재 회사채 가격에는 실제 가격발견 기능이 없다고 분석. 하위 섹터: 상위 등급 대신 CMBS, 중하위 등급 자산, 일부 신흥국 채권이 상대적으로 강세를 보였으나, 회사채 수익률 대비 금리위험이 크다고 평가. 신용등급 리스크: 투자등급 최하위인 BBB 등급 비중이 매우 커 등급 하향 시 스프레드가 약 200bp 벌어지고 가격이 약 15포인트 하락할 수 있다고 경고.
다듬은 글
I just want to get your views Jeffrey on what's transpired in the markets in the last few months and as it relates to the economy as well and the Fed dependency here how do you think about the feds role in the overall economy and the markets well the Fed has decided that they want to pull out all the stops to reduce market and economic volatility I think that was what really got them going in the later part of March an early part of April was that markets not just the stock market but commodity markets jump bond markets interest rate Marcus we're experiencing really persistent and elevated volatility and it just kept throwing things at it to make the volatility stop and of course when investors use the word volatility what they really mean is down prices going down a lot and the Fed came in because there was a total seized up in really the credit market system around the world but of course relative to the Fed in the United States I was I've been in the market for thirty five years and I've seen all kinds of crises including I was right at the front lines during 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis which really hit the securitized assets sector and what we experienced it's been the last part of March was far worse in terms of market conditions in the investment grade corporate bond market in emerging markets certainly in the junk bond markets far worse than the very worst date in March of 2009 literally in 2009 you could get a bid he didn't like it the prices were in a freefall from the day before on the really ugly days of maybe 10 or 15 percent price moves to the downside in a single day but in March of 2020 here there was no bid there were actually situations in large swaths of the fixed income market where you simply could not sell assets and that led to well what looked like was going to be some very substantial bankruptcies in some of the leveraged pools like like mortgage-related REITs and other leverage types of investments and the Fed just figured that it desperate times you know they require desperate measures and they went all the way into buying corporate bonds which as I've said in my webcasts is not allowed under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and they did not buy corporate bonds during the global financial crisis even though I know for a fact they talked a lot about it because I know people that were inside the Fed at at those discussions but what they're doing is really a bridge further than they've ever gone before where they're not even following the room Charter which means that the Fed could go even further in violation of the fellows erv Act of 1913 if they really feel like you know we go into another economic move down so the Fed has propped up the economy with just the most incredible fiscal lending that they've ever contemplated and of course I think the listeners know that the quantitative easing that the Fed has done since March is greater than all of the quantitative easing that they did that they started back you know in the global financial crisis it's it was more in just three or four weeks the met entire program that was laid out over a multi-year framework so that shows the level and extent of their commitment yeah certainly the word that gets tossed around is unprecedented and you were just referencing your 35 plus years and the markets never seen anything quite like this we've talked a bit in the past Jeffrey about corporate credit and you know the issues that were already there to begin with how do you begin to assess those issues with the latest Fed moves and are we just delaying the inevitable here well in a certain sense I think we're delaying the inevitable because under my analysis many bond prices that have been pushed up by the feds buying of ETFs than individual corporate bonds more recently by the prices they've pushed many of these assets up to I think is a higher price that they're actually paying for them then you'll receive through a bankruptcy when a lot of these companies are have to go through a filing also as I talked about in the past I probably talked about this in our last interview the fraction of the corporate bond market this investment grade and is the lowest tier of investment grade which is triple B is really enormous it's basically half from now even more than half of the entire you know it's like a twelve trillion dollar market now there's been so much issuance of corporate bonds and the prices have been propped up to levels where I thank the owners that owned them at these levels we'll end up losing principal on a basket of these assets so to that extent they're delaying the inevitable in the meantime they have a lot of wherewithal to continue to layer because they are spraying money all over the place and buying all of these all these assets the one thing that's happened that a lot of investors aren't aware of relative their corporate bond activities is at first it really pops the prices of MD which is the investment grade ETF and J and K which is the jump on ETF that I followed and since then the the price of hyg is not really even up since April 9th when they really went fully and I think they announced corporate bond purchases as a strategy around March 23rd they really upped the ante and a meaningful very meaningful way on April 9th and six since then those prices haven't really gone up they fluctuated but they're pretty much unchanged meanwhile that has led investors that understand that the price of corporate bonds today isn't really real there's no price discovery mechanism that's being Ted hey there's no there's a message there's just a target price that the Fed has been doing and that led to a pump a pop up in corporate bonds but since April 9 which is now we're moving on to about three months the sector's that were left behind to fight further themselves like the lower tiers commercial mortgage-backed securities or SFX securities and some emerging market bonds they've really outperformed corporate bonds because they're catching up as investors realize that the that the interest rate profile of investment created like the lqd is very long I mean it's about an eight-year it's about the interest rate risk of almost ten year Treasury and yet the yield to no losses is about two and a quarter so there's not a lot of reward there and there's a lot of risk if those bonds get down rated because the the yields on junk bonds are far higher today than the yields on trip will be corporate so if they get downgraded we know that the pricing is going to suffer very significantly so in that way the rating agencies might be might have an influence that the Fed can't really offset that easily because those down rates lead to probably about a 200 basis point spread widening which means about a 15 point price drop if the market starts to factor in the potential for the credit quality reevaluated to the downside
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