저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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9월 말 이후 금리 인하 기대와 중국 부양책 확대를 배경으로 금리 민감 상품 화학주(Dow·Lyondellbasell)가 저평가된 'YEV'(수익률·이익성장·밸류) 종목이라고 주장. 두 종목 모두 높은 배당수익률(LYB 5.62%, DOW 5.13%)과 연준 인하 사이클 수혜를 근거로 제시. 실적 부진은 이미 주가에 반영됐다는 JP모건 분석을 인용하며 반등 가능성을 강조. 이후 추가 YEV 종목 발표 예고.
다듬은 글
we've made it through the historically difficult month of September better than ever which is great except now we need to contend with the historically horrible month of October last month we got bailed out by the fed's double rate cut but there's no Open Market Committee meeting this month and we just got a very strong labor report that's making Wall Street wonder if we'll get another rate cut at the next meeting early November and interest rates just flew today tricky situation what made more difficult by the fact that the averag are still within spinning distance of their alltime highs it's tough to get enthusiastic about new ideas at A Moment Like This especially with Ernie season about to kick off at the end of the week PepsiCo by the way starts tomorrow but there are some stocks that can absolutely work in this environment which is why we spent the weekend sorting through the S&P 500 searching for names that met three simple criteria yield earnings growth and value I call it yev why you first we want stocks that offer better yields than you can get from the bench Benchmark 10year treasury which currently a little over 4% second we want outsize earnings growth meaning better than the 14% growth wall Street's expecting from the sp500 as a whole next year finally we want value meaning stocks that are cheaper than the SP sp500 in the aggregate which currently trades at roughly 21 times next year's earning estim you know what that's actually a very tough set of criteria but it gives us a list of nine yev names that I plan to unveil over the course of the week now I want want you to think of them as the elite of the elite not many companies can give you high yields cheap stocks and explosive earnings growth all at the same time so I want to start with the two that have the highest Shields both of which are big commodity chemical playes I'm talking about lion dezel that that has a 5.62% yield and Dal with a 5.13% yield of course these two chemical stocks haven't been doing particularly well but they're effectively flat for the year trailing the SP 500 badly that's up nearly 20% of the same period and look lol and DOW both deserve to be laggers this year these are Tex cyclical they boom and the global economy booms and they lag behind the economy struggling until very recently the two largest economies in the world United States and China were both deteriorating but think think about what's happened just in the past few weeks first the FED officially kicked off a new easing cycle starting with that double rate cut I just mentioned and then there's a clear consensus that we are going to get several more rate Cuts done before the FED is finished uh wall Street's expecting that the Fed pun will be down to 3.5 to 3.75% by next June's meeting that's down 125 basis points from where it stands right now what really matters though is that the general direction of interest rates is lower which means the FED is your friend don't fight the FED at moments like this the textbook cical stocks tend to become big Winners if there's a perfect time to buy commodity chemical places like d and lion Del Basel it starts when the FED is cutting which is right now second in the past two weeks the Chinese government has announced the most aggressive stimulus efforts that has put in place since the end of the pandemic and for once China's actually putting money in people's pockets for a Communist Regime they seem to really hate handouts but they they're finally taking action to bolster their Al economy which is good news both for their own companies and for C World Cal worldwide that are lever to the Chinese economy including Dal and lion Del bzel that's why I think these commodity chemical companies feel interesting here a couple weeks ago announc that JP Morgan published a note on the chemicals group basically said that they expect these companies to report week third quarter results remember Dow PS October 24th led up coming on November 1st we're not expecting anything here Dow already pre-announced light numbers at industry conference last month but the anal of JB Mo went on to explain that these stocks have been what we call der risked meaning the near-term earnings headwinds are already baked into the share price if you're willing to look past that and see further into the future though D and LEL should be on the road to recovery now that interest rates are coming down you got to anticipate anticipate anticipate that makes a lot of sense to me perfectly D than what we heard from from Jim fiddling the chairman C of Dal when we had him on the show back in July listen to this I think we need to see mortgage rates get to something with a five handle on them so that we can see people being able to get mortgages and being able to move into that market when that happens the part of the business that slow will pick up pretty quickly both from construction and then all the KnockOn effect from appliances carpets and other things that go into the into the housing market Bingo that's more or less the story here of course fitling said all this a couple of months before Dal had to issue a negative pre-announcement for the third quarter mostly because of the hurricane shutting down production that pre-announcement came on September 12th causing the stock to hit a low for the year but just few bound from $50 and change to $54 in change you expect that to happen during the rate cut season that rebound makes so much sense everybody knows that when the FED starts cutting rates it's time to buy the cyal just that these commod chemical plays take a little longer to come alive again than say the housing stocks of course that and lion Del Basel are very much Hostage to the Federal Reserve if you don't believe we'll get a steady stream of rate Cuts then they won't be able to hit the earing esms meaning the stocks are more expensive than they look and they could be poised for more downside but you know what if like me you believe the FED will continue cutting uh then bond yields will come down too and economies around the world will re accelerate both from the commodity chemical business as a whole including Dal and lion Del Basel well then you got to pull the trigger so here's the bottom line in this quiet period before earning season gets crazy okay we got to search for new ideas these are ideas that represent the highest quality stocks for the current moment the ones that fit the yev Paradigm yield earnings growth and value D and L Del bzel they perfectly fit the bill and as chance would have it they're exactly what the hedge fund Playbook says you should buy at this point in the business cycle keep watching this week and I'm going to give you some seven other names that pass the very exclusive yev test their money's back after the break coming up Bulls bears and binge watching the five-star case for Netflix against those who fear a flop next
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