Stocks are setup to perform well over the medium-term, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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미국 증시 강세장 지속 전망. 중국 부양책, 금리인하, 대기 현금을 순풍으로 보고 S&P500이 연말 5700 이상 갈 수 있다고 주장. 소형주는 다중년 상승 시작 가능성 언급. 반면 Mike Santo는 밸류에이션(선행PE 21배)과 대선 전 변동성, 강세장 3년차 부담을 경고. 이란 원유 공급 차질 우려는 심리적 리스크로 언급.

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01. bull market story still intact as Wall Street has largely avoided the seasonal weakness uh as we were mentioning of octo of August and September but a number of threats are looming including of course the election four weeks away our next guest is looking past the headwinds and focusing on three Tail wins including a delish fed China's late stimulus push and lots of cash on the sidelines let's bring in first CNBC contributor Tom Lee co-founder and head of research with fund Strat and our very own Mike Santo joining us as well Tom let me start with you it was in April on this program that you said you thought the S&P 500 could close at 5700 maybe even higher well looky here look where it is today right about 5700 so the maybe higher part is still a part of your formula uh yes I I think it's part of the formula because you know bull markets uh are supported by strong fundamentals and this is a case where not only is has the economy survived extremely high interest rates but the FED is beginning to cut rates and an economy that has sort of been languishing um has been China and now we have some stimulus and what looks like some bazooka policies that is supporting that region and we have a lot of cash on the sidelines so I think that this is a formula for stocks to do pretty well the next 3 to 12 months and and that's why we you you know we think that you we would be well beyond 5700 before year end well so so Mike Tom says Tailwinds overpower headwinds here yes um although I think you do have some offsets and I think that even though that August and September the advertised seasonal weekness didn't really show up in the terms of sustain downside it did become a less rewarding market right you had more downside moves from that August 1 level than you had upside at least during those two months so I do think that reflects the fact that we have priced in a pretty decent scenario here we're 21 times forward earnings on the S&P 500 I think a soft Landing is pretty much what's underpinning that idea that said it's hard for the market to get into too much trouble when the FED is easing into a resilient economy and even though we're having to worry about maybe less fed easing than we thought U Thursday before we got this jobs report I think that's a better formula economy holds up better the only reason you'd worry about it is if you think the strong Friday jobs number was a head fake and all of a sudden it really was not representative of the economy being strong and yet yields are higher and yet oils higher we're benefiting from those things starting at very low points under $70 crude and then you know 36 on the 10e as a low recently and so therefore the big violent vertical moves we've had in those areas have not really upended anything except maybe the housing stocks but I do think um you know you have to be aware that we're two years into a bull market that's often where it kind of flattens out becomes a little bit less aggressive on the upside as our guest last week said the third year is the hardest one often has tended to be yeah Tom Do you want to build on that and address what you should do with small caps here which why they've been so actually that probably the one area we've seen the most weakness since the the FED hik rates yeah small caps um I mean they're within a few percentage coins of an all-time high and U Mark Newton our head of technical strategy thinks we are still in an up move for small caps that just started recently but but yes it's been disappointing I think it's been especially disappointing because China and small caps historically are fairly highly correlated and so we are seeing risk on appetite increasing in some places but I think it's just a matter of time I think part of this is you know between now and the next month which is around election day um there's a lot for investors to digest it's including oil prices and the vix is elevated I think it's these are things that are hard for someone to say today between now and early November I want to be buying risk outright so I think small caps still have good fundamentals earnings growth is accelerating the median PE is 11 times which is almost seven turns lower than the S&P so I I think there's still the case to be made that small CS are starting a multi-year gain it's just been very choppy as you look at oil what would an interruption of Iranian oil supplies which is really only 3% as I understand it of of global output what would an interruption of Iranian oil mean uh maybe not in in economic terms because it might not mean very much but what it could mean psychologically to the market well you markets don't like uncertainty and you know oil is spiking not because of demand but because of like what you're pointing out Tyler the risk of A disruption and you know oil can move up quite a lot before it actually triggers the level of Burden that that causes a recession I that number is probably closer to $200 today but it would be no fun for any consumer to see oil at 120 and gas prices more than double so it's something that I think would be very painful for consumers just to see oil Surge and uh even if it's temporary