저자: TheTravelingTrader · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 비트코인은 단기 하락 가능성이 높다고 본다. 비트코인 분석: 9,000달러 하회 후 하락 채널을 유지 중이며, 거래량과 변동성이 낮은 구간이라 큰 변동에 취약하다고 설명. 기술적 근거: 50일선과 200일선의 데드크로스, 저항선 근처 도달, RSI 하락 방향, MACD 하향 전환 신호를 제시. 숏 포지션 분석: 숏 잔고가 저점권에 있어 숏 스퀴즈 가능성이 낮다고 판단. 장기 전망: 하락 채널은 연말~내년 사이 상방 돌파될 수 있다고 봄. 시장 전반: S&P500, 나스닥, 다우가 사상 최고가 부근에서 소폭 조정 중이며, 연준 금리 인하와 미중 무역 협상 기대가 긍정 요인으로 언급됨. 개별 종목 - 핏빗: 실적 발표를 앞두고 숏 포지션을 잡았으며, 매출 감소로 수익 중이라고 설명. 개별 종목 - 원유(USO): 100일선 저항 부근, 역사적으로 가격이 낮은 편이라고 언급. 장기 보유보다 스윙 매매를 선호. 개별 종목 - 디즈니: 실적 상회 및 스트리밍 서비스 출시를 근거로 장기 강세 전망. 장전 약 6% 상승, 140달러대 갭상승 예상. 홍보: 기술적 분석 및 1:1 코칭 안내.
다듬은 글
[ Friday to today's Friday I am in beautiful Miami as you could probably see behind me I didn't want to leave you guys without a video update especially if I'm expecting a significant move on Bitcoin to happen soon so here it is and I'll go through the markets as well let's get right into it alright so let's take a look at what bitcoin is doing so what I think is going on with bitcoin is the same thing that that I mentioned in the last couple of videos right bitcoin is still within this descending channel it's very clear that it is respecting this channel and that this is a valid trend currently we did see a drop today to just below 9k as I stated in my last video once we do get into these low period of our sorry these periods of low volatility volatility and low volume then bitcoin is really susceptible to these large moves and you see that over the last few months really right when Bitcoin is trading say back here in September in this very tight range low volatility low volume then it's susceptible to a big drop same thing here low volatility low volume and it was susceptible to a big rally now there isn't a you know there isn't one clear way of identifying which direction it will go there are a number of tools that you can use at your disposal so in this case you know if you if you saw my last video I was saying that I expect Bitcoin to drop from here there are a few reasons for that and we can go over that from a technical standpoint one you have the death cross between the 50 and the 200 here the orange and the end the green lines right - like I said bitcoin is respecting this channel so you have this trend here where you have clear support and clear resistance and what you expect is to bounce from support and get rejected at resistance obviously this trend is going to change right trend is your friend until the end so there will be some point where this trend will be broken in my view in the long term it will be broken to the upside might take till the end of the year might take until next year but in my view this trend will eventually be broken to the upside once we do get a enough volume coming in once again however in the short term we're seeing a very low volume again right there you could see here down the volume bars and we could take a look at advance the volume on stuff such as a bit vol dot info but you have low volume you have low volatility right because we're in this extremely tight range here and the other way that that you can the other tool that you have at your disposal that you can use to determine bitcoins direction or try to determine bitcoins short-term direction are the shorts right so let's take a look at these shorts and what the reason I say this if you look back here in the towards the end of October right when Bitcoin was trading was trading at support and there wasn't a clear direction as to whether we would bounce up or finally break down especially since the death cross already happened well if you look at the reason for this spike here and you see this big wick here on what was that October 26 it was because shorts were at a swing high right here are the shorts and you see shorts were at a a swing high and so there was a chance or an opportunity for a short squeeze to occur now a short mostly you probably know what this is but for those that don't a short squeeze in very summarised terms is basically when there is when there are a lot of shorts at a certain level the price ticks up a little bit and momentum kicks in and it's like a snowball effect where those shorts start closing right because there are a lot of shorts so the short start closing as the price rises and the price rises because of those shorts start closing because in order to close a short you have to have the opposite trade which is a long right so so you have this basically this trickle-down effect of Long's that are occurring in order to liquidate these shorts and that's what a short squeeze is but when you don't have a lot of shorts and you see here shorts painted a double bottom on the one day chart here and we're still pretty low comparatively to these highs that we saw back at the end of September in the end of October so when shorts are you know fairly low you don't really have an opportunity for a short squeeze so with low volume low volatility the death cross us coming up on resistance and the fact that we don't have a ton of shorts I do and you look at the RSI I mean this is aside from looking at things like the RSI which looks like it's it's pointing downwards the MACD looks like it's about to curl inversely you know with thing with with all those factors that I discussed you try to gain confluence on the direction or the the short-term movement of the market so in my view we're going down and I actually sent out a trade alert for this towards the end of October saying that you know if you are ok incurring more risk you can certainly short here and you know shorting with leverage just going from from something like ninety four hundred to nine to nine thousand or just below nine thousand will net you a pretty nice gain all right so that's Bitcoin let us just go over the markets real quick the markets are seeing a bit of a slowdown after record highs all of the major indices the SP and Nasdaq the Dow Jones they were knocking on resistances door once again and with you know a good good jobs report the Fed dropping the interest rate last week or the week before by another quarter of a percentage point the optimistic outcome of the china-us trade talks we are now in all-time high territory but there is just a tiny bit of a slowdown not much a couple of stock trades we were in I definitely shorted Fitbit which is netting ok results right now is it is a dip below seven dollars the reason I did that is because earnings were coming up and it was really just an earnings play based on the fact that one Fitbit has an inflated price due to the Google buyout and two you know it would come short on earnings now it did beat expectations on earnings but sales still dropped from last year and last quarter really so gaining a little bit on that short on that fit short a UWT just a monster for us up almost 20% it is coming up on resistance here at the hundred day crude oil is still price relatively low if you look historically in the market I don't like to hold you WT long-term I do like to play the swings and I do send those out in the trade alerts so and last one I'll briefly go over is Disney and Disney is you know if you've been following this channel for a while if you've been following the tread alerts and you've been following the portfolio updates that I send out I'm really bullish on Disney long-term and they did beat earnings as well as the fact that they're launching their streaming service next week and it looks like pre-market they're actually up quite a bit almost 6% they're up to about a hundred almost 141 dollars so I do expect Disney to open up here and gap a lot higher than than where we were yesterday we closed yesterday at around 1:30 too and I think we'll open up above 140 today so nice little profit for us there on Disney again f you want help with technical analysis or want one-on-one coaching with me same leave a
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