저자: TheTravelingTrader · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 좁은 박스권에서 변동성이 낮아 큰 움직임 전 단계이며, 기술적 패턴상 하락 쪽이 더 유력하다고 봄. 비트코인 변동성·거래량: 30일 변동성 추정치가 계속 하락해 연초 이후 낮은 수준(약 3%)이며, 2019년 5월과 비슷한 수준. 거래량도 낮아 큰 움직임이 뒤따를 가능성이 있다고 주장. 방향 자체를 단정하지는 않음. 비트코인 기술적 패턴: 약 9,000~9,200달러 지지선을 3차례 테스트, 고점이 낮아지는 하락 패턴이라 약세. 100일·50일 이동평균선 위로 올라가기 어려움. 지지선(약 9,200달러) 하락 가능성이 더 높다고 봄. 바이낸스 거래 중단 영향: 미국 사용자 거래 중단으로 거래량 감소, 큰 랠리 가능성 낮다고 봄. 백트(Backed) 승인 이슈: 승인 시 단기 랠리 가능하나, 이미 가격에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 판단. 전체 암호화폐 시가총액: 50일 이동평균선 돌파 실패, 헤드앤숄더 패턴 미확정(넥라인 이탈 전까지). 하락 쪽이 더 유력. 비트코인 전략: 현재는 관망. 저항선 재테스트 시 저위험 숏 가능성 언급. 이전 EOS/BTC 숏으로 약 30% 수익 주장. 전통 시장: 미중 무역 협상 재개와 관세 연기로 반등. S&P500 약 0.5%, 나스닥 약 0.67% 상승. 개별 종목: 특정 매매(약 14달러 매수, 약 40% 수익 주장)와 UWT(원유 ETF) 매수 구간 재진입 언급. 어크로노 칸나비스(ACB): 하락 삼각형 이탈 후 반등 실패, 실적 부진과 거래량 감소로 고평가 판단. 450~475달러 구간의 이중 바닥 지지선까지 기다렸다가 매수 고려. 현재 매수는 보류. 출연자 전망: 비트코인은 하락 쪽이 더 개연성 높다고 봄. ACB는 현재 고평가로 매수 보류.
다듬은 글
[ Thursday to you so today I wanted to talk about Bitcoin obviously we'll talk about some of the trades that we made in the crypto and the traditional markets and I'll talk about the traditional markets as well and go over over Ora cannabis and why it fell 9% today and whether there are some buying opportunities there but before I start if this is the first time on the channel and you like what you see go ahead and hit that subscribe button hit that thumbs up button and let us get started so looking at Bitcoin most people will start with the Bitcoin chart but I wanted to start with the Bitcoin volatility today why is that well because volatility continues to drop the 30 day estimate continues to drop and what does this mean well it means that bitcoin is trading in a very tight range and will corroborate this on the chart here in a second but if you look at the Bitcoin volatility over time you'll see that trading at 3% volatility is historically low this is year-to-date so since the beginning in January 2019 and we are trading now at volatility that we saw similar levels of in back in May and as you know June was the time that we had this crazy rally here that took us from you know when Bitcoin was still in the six six seven thousand range all the way up to fourteen thousand so I'm not saying that Bitcoin volatility is telling you that something is going to go up it just means that you know when volatility is low and it's getting ever so low that you should expect a big move soon especially when volume is low as well right you expect low volatile low volatility low volume periods to then be accompanied by a big move thereafter because what happens when there's low volume is prices are susceptible to major changes so the minute that either the Bulls or the Bears take a grip or take a handle of the market and they then can easily drag the market in the direction that you know each group is going whether there's more Bulls than bears or more bears than Bulls because there is low volume right so that is bound to happen here and you'll see you could see on bitcoins chart that you know the last over two weeks has been trading in this tight range here now we did successfully short Bitcoin a while back when it hit you know last week when it hit around ten thousand eight hundred ten thousand nine hundred and wrote it all the way down and yesterday I saw the Bitcoin was having trouble getting above the hundred day moving average so I did put in a little short here with a tight stop limit at around ten thousand three hundred it did hit my stop limit and the short did not play out however Bitcoin is still in this rather tenuous zone where it doesn't know what it wants to do if you want access to the trade alerts by the way where I send out all these levels link is in the description you also get access to the stop trade alerts and I'll go over some of the winds that we had in a few minutes but yeah looking at Bitcoin if I had to guess on a pattern or a direction I should say based off of the pattern this pattern is rather bearish right you have a stable support line where we retested three times at around you know 90 90 190 200 and you have declining highs this is a bearish pattern and Bitcoin is having a lot of trouble getting above these simple moving averages the hundred and the fifty right it's having a ton of trouble here with minimal volume so the the inclination or the the more probable move is that will see a decrease at least to the support level here back at ninety two hundred eventually now obviously we could break to the upside but that is going to take a lot more work and a lot more volume and with by Nantz halting trading today for for us traders right for those of you that didn't know if you're in the u.s.
you can't trade on by Nance starting today so that would ostensibly decrease the volume quite a bit because the u.s. is one of the most volumous countries by by trading volume so you know you would be you would be hard-pressed to see a major rally from here based on all those circumstances if backed does get approved in the next few weeks you could see that you know driving momentum in the market again when you have low volume you're susceptible to all of these impulsive moves that the market can make so something like backed you know yeah I don't think it's it's as huge of a deal as people are making it out to be and I actually think that it's mostly priced in to the market like this move to 14,000 definitely has a little bit of that information built-in however if it does get efficiently announced there will undoubtedly be a rally a short-term rally if backed does get officially announced so who knows what could happen you know could get announced by the time that we reach the apex of this triangle but if that aside you know I think all circumstances point to at least more descending price action to the support level here so looking at the total crypto market cap you'll see that also the total crypto market cap is having trouble getting above the 50-day moving average which is this orange line and we do see the mini death crosshair between the 50 and 100 and once again you do have this bearish pattern in the head and shoulders that has yet to be confirmed until we see a break below the neckline so all things considered I think the more probable move is a move down and currently on Bitcoin I'm in a sit and wait period to see what happens when we do retest this resistance here there is a potential low risk short that one can can engage in if we do hit this resistance level here and again I'll be sending those levels out in the trade alerts all right that is Bitcoin and then looking at a successful trade alert that we've had recently was on EOS BTC we shorted EOS as soon as it hit this resistance level that I saw back here in August 14th and made about 30% on this trade as a decline back down below the 21 EMA this was a pretty easy trade for us to see and I did send this out in the trade alerts all right let's take a look at the traditional market so the markets have rebounded based on the fact that Trump delayed some of the tariffs aimed at China and that that the china-us trade talks are going to resume sometime in early October that is enough to push the market up a bit and rebound the espys back over 3000 it's up half a percent that was up half a percent Nasdaq is up about two-thirds of a percent so nice a little rebound there in stocks a couple of trades that we made today actually this trade we made a while back so I don't mind sharing it with you guys but to you we bought it at just shy of $14 it was back up to about 20 bucks now over the 21 EMA this is up almost 40% for us at this point and then UWT which is the oil ETF they will keep swing trading fell back into our buy zone and we are already up about 3% today on uwt looking at overall cannabis this is one of the most talked about stocks right now because this is obviously a pot stock of marijuana stock that was inflated along with a lot of the other ones they didn't really have the financials to Beckett but there was a lot of hype in this industry and you see that you know you dope sorry ACB overall cannabis had this descending triangle here and it broke and confirmed the descending triangle broke to the downside and now we are having trouble getting above the 50 ma we reach there got rejected and we are now back under this trendline which was the original continuation trendline of this descending triangle so am I going to be buying over or cannabis here to be honest I don't think so there is clear support that you see here there's a clear support level where it formed this double bottom bouncing off of the this near the same level back in august 2018 and then around December 2018 so based on the fact that our cannabis has had terrible financials a very bad earnings report and the volume is continuing to decline I would venture to buy it at around the same level that we saw this double bottom bounce off of right so at around I would say between 450 and 475 AK or cannabis I do think that it's overvalued now you see the mini death cross happening between the hundred and the 200 mas and the fact that we were so easily rejected from the 50-day moving so I'm not looking at buying or a cannabis just yet I will wait to see if we can get to this level at least that we saw this double bottom bounced off of last year I got short little video for you that is it for this video send out all my trade alerts for stocks options crypto etc so sign up if you want access to that it'll cost you less than a cup of coffee a week and that is well worth it you get to engage with our trading community and talk about strategy trades etc so sign up link is in the 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