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Michael Burry의 '매도 실수 인정' 트윗이 풍자인지 진심인지 모르겠다는 의문으로 시작한다. 은행권 위기 이후 연준이 약 4000억 달러 규모로 대차대조표를 늘려 사실상 QE가 재개되었고, 이 유동성이 시장 상승의 원동력이라는 진행자의 판단이다. 나스닥은 공식 강세장 진입, S&P500 4300선이 저항선으로 언급된다. 연준 금리 정책: 금리 인상이 거의 끝나고 5월 25bp 인상 후 pause, 여름 이후 인하 가능성이 제시된다. PCE가 연준 기준금리 아래로 내려온 점을 언급하며 3월 31일 PCE 발표를 주시하라고 한다. 리스크 요인: 세인트루이스 연준 금융스트레스지수가 과거 30년간 4차례만 1.575를 넘었고 그때마다 VIX가 45 이상이었다는 점을 들어, 신용 이벤트 발생 가능성을 경고한다. 은행권 위기가 시작에 불과하다는 시각이다. 투자 전략: 장기적으로는 저점 매수(DCA)가 유효하다고 보며, 진행자 본인은 국채에 투자하고 매일 단기 매매를 한다. 2년물 국채 선물 기회를 강조한다. 연준 피벗은 보통 무언가 깨진 뒤에 나오며 그 시점에 주식은 크게 하락했다는 역사적 관점을 제시한다. 소프트 랜딩 가능성에는 회의적이다. 결론적으로 시장은 유동성 덕에 단기 상승 여력이 있으나, 금리 고점 유지와 신용 리스크로 인해 조건부 낙관이며 연준 피벗 전까지는 신중해야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
what in the hell is going on guys it seems like we're in the Twilight Zone Michael burry just tweeted today saying I was wrong to say sell a day before fomc on January 31st Michael burry said so now you know that this guy loves to talk in riddles and conundrum so did he mean it what is going on with the market is he actually being sarcastic here or did he really mean I was wrong to say so we haven't really heard about him capitulating before so in this video in this week's edition of ta Thursday we're gonna go over the chart look at what is what the heck is going on as the NASDAQ hit officially a bull market obviously we can't talk about the recent Market without mentioning what happened with the banks and the fact that the FED actually added almost 400 billion dollars on their balance sheet in two weeks we are due for an update actually today as of the time of this video but this is what I was saying in my last video and my last live that the fact that the FED is now back to QE regardless if these are loans or not they are still adding assets to their balance sheet and they are still pumping the banks with that the market in the short term is going to like that so I promise we're going to get into all of that I'm going to give you my take on the market as it stands currently what am I looking at what can throw a wrench into this new bull market that we see in the NASDAQ and are we in the clear the FED is getting closer to pausing and what happens historically when the FED pauses but before we dive into the video make sure that you follow me on Twitter and Instagram those links are in the description in the link tree link you will see a link to all of my socials make sure you follow me on Twitter and Instagram because I send out daily trading and finance content including trades that I'm taking I sent this SPX put out made 81 percent on this trade I sent this out on Twitter this morning it was also obviously in the academy we have taught thousands of Traders how to trade over the years and are currently transitioning a ton of Traders from paper trading Futures into real money trading so make sure you sign up for the Academy to get all of our live trades and Analysis every single day and let's get right into it so is Michael burry being sarcastic here in the wake of all of the bank failures the revised cpis the pressure that the US dollar is coming under recently honestly I don't know I could tell you that when I'm looking at the chart actually [ __ ] the chart let's not look at the chart we will definitely look at the chart but as I was saying on on my last live on my last video watch a documentary called the age of easy money but basically as I was stating the FED is or the the market is addicted to the FED it's addicted to easy money it's addicted to quantitative easing it's addicted to artificial injection of liquidity and as long as the FED keeps doing this and nobody obviously could tell one that the banks were going to fail nobody could tell that the Fed was going to backstop all of these Banks and we're going to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury at par and give out loans to the banks however they please but the fact that they did obviously we are now driving liquidity back into the system and the market loves that so since the FED announced that it's no no surprise to me that the market has been rallying has been going up but we are not yet in the clear obviously we made highs during the beginning of February that is around the time that Michael burry had said sell he said sell around January 31st and in my view we have a long way to go now obviously I don't know the extent of the fed's liquidity injection if it's going to continue and that that program is open until 2024 as I stated before the pro program that backstops all of the banks or any bank that requests it basically providing an unlimited amount of liquidity into the system to help stop bank failures that program is open until February or until 2024 this is on the fed's website here the bank term funding program it says advances can be requested under the program until at least March 11 2024 could go beyond that depending on how bad things get now from a purely technical perspective we broke out of the inverse Head and Shoulders but came right back in that one is a very bullish sign coming back in is actually a very bearish sign and for me you know everything from here on out is really data dependent we see that the FED funds rate finally pce fell below the FED funds rate and you know obviously the FED wants the FED funds rate above inflation it's nowhere near above CPI yet but we are getting closer as it is above pce however we do have pce being reported on March 31st if you're watching this before that then you know that's something that you can monitor if you're watching this after that then we'll know whether pce came in higher than expected or not and if we take a look at the probabilities of the target fed funds rate over 50 percent are now projecting that the FED doesn't raise in the next meeting in may now this is a completely different picture from where we were a month ago before the bank started failing before the banks were failing there was a projection that the FED would push rates almost to six percent and we would not see a rate cut this year now we are projecting that there are no more rate hikes you know at a 50 50 basis that there are no more rate hikes and if we do see a rate hike it will be we'll do 25 basis points in May and then pause and then potentially a cut after the summer now I do think in the short term barring any sort of higher inflation whether it's pce or CPI I do think that the market can act actually continue to run in the short term if you look at this we are nowhere near the point where you know there's enough liquidity taken out of the market this is gearing up to be the second Best Buy the dip year since 2020 right but if we compare this to another time where we had high inflation the late 70s and early 80s the buy the dip strategy didn't really work because people didn't have that much liquidity to pump these stocks up however to me this points that there is still an insane amount of liquidity in the system and that is why we're seeing sticky inflation and revised cpis Etc however as long as this continues and the FED keeps keeps injecting money into the system I do think that the stock market can continue to run at least two former resistance levels whether we're talking about the high that we hit in February or the you know all too commonly looked at uh 4300 level on the S P 500 and to me that's going to continue until one of two things happen until we get a major reversal in inflation right seeing inflation going back up whether it's pce or CPI or both or whether something else breaks in the system we all know that if the treasury and the FED didn't come in and backstop the banks this would have been a completely different scenario that we would be tracking right now but they stepped in they supplied the banks with an endless amount of liquidity and we all were where we are however if you look at the St Louis fed Financial stress Index this measures the financial stress and economic conditions that we're currently in basically taking a ton of data points I think it's 18 data points looking at interest rates looking at yield spreads Etc this right here we hit 1.575 and every time we've hit Above This level I think it hit this level four times in the last 30 years let me go back to a tweet by cheddar flow four times in the last 30 years in every case the vix hit at least 45 during the last two spikes it actually hit 80.
so when the interest rate is height that aggressively and the yield spreads are all broken we tend to see things things crack like what we saw with the banks but there are usually also unresolved credit risks whether it's in corporate credit or consumer credit or both we tend to see some type of credit event so the banks to me was just the start and if we continue to raise rates and keep them there and inflation does not come down significantly fast enough to where the FED funds rate is now above CPI then I do think that this is likely to play out not this right here but uh the the FED Financial stress Index this is likely to cause some sort of event that we just cannot see right now so from an investor standpoint in my view I mean continuing to to buy the dip or dollar cost average uh is always going to be your best bet especially the fact that we're still 16 down from all-time highs on the S P 500 and on the NASDAQ we are still let's see we're still 20 almost 22 percent down from highs now I'm not saying uh that you know if you're looking for the ultimate spot to buy which is not really how to invest for the long term I'm not saying this is an ultimate spot to buy but you know I'm saying that if you don't want to worry your head about what can happen or can't happen then yes of course buying the dip or dollar cost averaging has always worked especially in a down market for me right now I'm investing in treasuries because the yield is just too good I'm day trading every single day which I'm much more comfortable opening and closing positions every single day and I'm confident in my ability leading my skills to do so and I'm looking at trades like the two-year note Futures which I mentioned to you months ago where we caught the bottom from 2007.
in my view If the Fed is actually going to pause when the FED pauses there is a lot of opportunity more opportunity for me for me or more predictable opportunity in the two-year no Futures than there are in stocks and just as a last note what happens when the FED actually pauses what what happens to the stock market well there's a big difference between the FED pivoting which in my view means cutting back rates or cutting rates and pausing when the FED pauses the market can still go up but when the FED finally pivots they pivot because something has cracked where you know it's expected that something cracks they obviously want unemployment to go up they want spending to stop but something cracks to where the the FED then realizes or determines that hey we cannot keep rates this High we finally got inflation where we we want it unemployment is high enough this thing here in the financial system broke this thing here cracked under pressure and they only pivot when things really turn bad so I personally don't think that the FED is going to cut until unemployment goes up for instance and until we get the FED funds rate above CPI and above pce which it is already above pce but we don't know about the next one but every time that the FED pivots or at least in the last few uh bear markets so if we talk about before 2020 if we talk about you know what happened in 2008 if we talk about what happened in the.com Crash most of the bear Market in in those bear markets most of the decline actually happened after the Fed pivoted so that is why I I don't think that you know we can achieve a soft Landing in my opinion I don't know what in the system will break but just historically it is not common that the FED just pivots willy-nilly like that they're going to pause uh and they're going to pause you know by by the summer in my view but I don't think they pivot until things actually start breaking so you know unfortunately things aren't as as clear as they seem um on a midterm basis and I know that you're hearing all kinds of opinions but to me it's conditional based on the things that that I laid out and that is why I continue uh to day trade on a daily basis because I don't care if it goes up or down uh or sideways I will find a strategy that works for that and I will find a strategy that works for me and we consistently do it so if you want access to the academy if you want access to all of our trades and Analysis stocks options Futures Etc day trades swing trades uh Trey leads on treasury notes link is in the description below come join us be a part of the most dynamic online team we are one of the largest and first Finance social groups online so come and join us would love to have you leave a comment down below let me know what you think of Michael burry's comments do you think he was being sarcastic do you think he was being serious hit that thumbs up if you got anything out of this video subscribe to the channel hit that notification Bell stay safe out there Traders peace
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