저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국은 이미 경기침체 국면이며, 금리 인상과 달러 약세로 인플레이션은 재가속될 가능성이 크다는 비관론. 경기 상황: 2022년 1~2분기 마이너스 성장 후 3분기 반등은 무역적자 개선과 전략비축유(SPR) 수출 덕분의 일회성이라고 주장. 4분기 마이너스 가능성 언급, 2023년 마이너스 지표가 여러 번 나올 것으로 전망. 2008년 경기침체 때도 부인론이 있었다고 비유. 주식: 인기 주식 다수가 52주 신저가, 일부 기업은 무수익 상태로 파산해 0원이 될 수 있다고 주장. 하락이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 봄. 달러·환율: 연준 금리 인상으로 달러가 강세였으나, 실질금리가 여전히 마이너스이므로 투자자들이 깨닫는 순간 달러가 급락할 것으로 예상. 2023년 달러가 유로·엔보다 더 빠르게 가치를 잃을 것이라고 전망. 달러 약세는 수입물가를 올려 물가 압력을 가중. 물가·금리: 에너지·원자재 가격 조정으로 헤드라인 CPI는 완화됐지만 근원물가는 계속 상승. 물가가 하락하는 것이 아니라 상승 속도만 둔화된 것이며, 연준 목표 2%에 도달하기 전에 10% 이상일 것이라고 주장. 연준의 금리 인상은 기업·임대업자의 이자비용을 전가해 오히려 물가를 올린다고 주장. 언급 자산과 방향: 미국 기술주·개별 고평가 성장주 하락 지속(상승 기대 부정). 달러(환율 기준 원/달러 아님) 약세 전망. 미국채금리 상승(실질금리 마이너스 강조) 및 물가 고공행진 가정. 금·비트코인 등 직접 언급 없음. 리스크: 연준이 긴축을 지속하면 경기와 주식 침체가 심화, 반대로 방향 전환 시 상황 변화 가능.
다듬은 글
well those are the ones that are released they were released earlier today and it's a basket of of indicators in fact I think for this month one of the ones that worked in the favor of the index was the stock market because it had rallied off the lows but uh that rally is quickly reversing in fact many of the most popular stocks are at 52 week lows okay in fact multi-year lows for many of these stocks today but I think the bad news for the people still holding out of those stocks is it's a long way down uh you know they're even though they've Fallen a long way they still have a long way to go because they were up at such ridiculous levels in fact some of these companies are going to go to zero because they're going to go bankrupt you know in in the environment of rising rates and higher inflation a lot of these companies that have no earnings are going to have a difficult time staying in business well maybe we're not maybe it's a depression and that would be the the way that they would end up being wrong but if you remember the Great Recession started in 2007 but I was doing interviews on popular uh shows in mid-2008 and they were saying there's no recession so what happened was all these economists went backwards and revised down all the data and then they said okay I guess we were in recession they didn't even think a recession was coming but the fact of the matter is we were actually in one at the time and they couldn't even see that and I think this is the same situation today you know we actually had negative quarters the first two quarters were negative the third quarter in fact you know we got some numbers out on that today I mean it was up maybe three percent or so but all of that was due to the Improvement in the trade deficit during that quarter and a lot of that resulted from the fact that we were able to export a lot of the oil that we were pulling out of the Strategic petroleum Reserve but we're going to exhaust that Reserve sometime next year so that's not going to be able to offset our trade deficits but also we had the big rise in the dollar well in the fourth quarter we've had a big fall of the dollar it hasn't lost all of its gains yet but I think it will in 2023 but as the dollar weakens that's also going to push up our trade deficits because it increases the cost of all of our Imports so I think the help that we got in Q3 was a one-off quarter we may end up with a negative print for Q4 we'll see but I think we're going to get quite a few negative prints in 2023 as more air comes out of this bubble and then I think it's going to be very hard for the recession deniers to continue uh to you know put a positive spin on this economy they're going to have to admit that we're in recession the question is is the Fed going to change course as a result of that admission or is it going to continue uh with the rate hikes and quantitative tightening uh making a bad situation worse which you know is what it should do but the question is will it do that well I think the real reason that the dollar Rose was not just that rate Rose but that the markets believed that these rate hikes were going to work in that they were going to bring down the inflation rate the FED said that we're going to return inflation to two percent and we're going to do whatever it takes to make that happen and the markets basically took the FED at its word and so they bought the Dollar on the idea that you know these high rates were going to produce positive real returns for dollars but I think as the markets come to terms with reality that despite the rate hikes inflation is not going down to two percent in fact it's more likely to head higher after this you know brief dip that we've had and so that even though the FED has raised rates rates are still negative from a real term and if you have negative real interest rates that is not a incentive to hold dollars that's an incentive to sell dollars because the interest that you earn is not high enough to compensate you for the purchasing power that you lose and and so when investors figure this out I think the dollar is going to fall sharply and that's going to exacerbate the the problem that the FED is dealing with because the strength of the dollar limited the rise in consumer prices in the United States in 2022 so even though prices were up a lot they would have been up even more had the dollar not been strong relative to other currencies well if the dollar really weakens in 2023 that's going to add additional upward pressure to already Rising consumer prices well remember all these countries were experiencing inflation most of the eurozones their inflation rates were higher than ours I mean they're still looking at you know over 10 a year over year inflation rates in many European countries so all currencies were losing value it's just that on a relative basis you know it's like if if I'm going backwards at 10 miles an hour and a car next to me is going backwards at 20 miles an hour relative to the car going backwards at 20 miles an hour I'm moving forwards but I'm not moving forwards in in reality I'm still I'm still going backwards and so even though the dollar was strengthening relative to the Euro or the end it was still losing value in real terms just it was losing value more slowly than the Euro or the end I think the difference in 2023 is we're going to lose value more rapidly so the Euro and the Yen will continue to lose value but the dollar will go from losing value slower to losing value faster well you know some of it was the strong dollar and so that reduced our import prices also we had a correction in energy oil and in particular and so you know that helped take some of the uh staying out of the CPI other Commodities also pull back so on the headline number we we got some relief but of course on the core not so much a lot of the prices continued to rise even as some of the headline numbers were coming down but also remember prices continue to go up it's not like they're coming down they're just going up a little more slowly than they were going up before but if prices were too high even a little increase is still a problem what we need is for prices to go down you know we need to you know for prices to recover or for consumers to recover some of their lost purchasing power by having consumer prices actually fall but that ain't going to happen right all we can hope for is that they rise more slowly in fact that's what the fed's goal is the fed's goal isn't to reduce prices the fed's saying that we're hoping to reduce the annual increase to two percent but those two percent increases are going to come on top of all the increases that preceded them so prices go up I think over the last two years they're up better than 15 percent even the way the government measures them in reality they're probably up closer to 30 percent but even if they start going up two percent from here we're going up two percent from a much higher level you know than we were at before but of course we're not going down to two percent we're we're not even getting anywhere near two percent before we get close to two percent we'll be above ten percent I don't know that the rate hikes had much to do with it other than maybe they have something to do with the break in commodity prices temporarily because remember those Rising interest rates actually feed into higher consumer prices because people forget that well interest rates are prices right and and so like any other price they get factored in to and finish Goods like if I am a business it's an interesting perspective yeah I have labor costs I have raw material costs well I also have interest rate costs maybe I borrowed some money uh to build a plant or whatever I'm doing and and so I I have to I have to pay interest on my debt well if interest rates go up well that's a cost of doing business well well that's I might have to raise prices to cover that same thing if you're a landlord what if I own a bunch of apartment buildings and I have debt on those apartment buildings yes I have costs that I need to recover but one of those costs is the interest on the money I borrowed so I may have to raise rents on my tenants to cover the higher cost of servicing the money I borrowed to buy the apartment complex in the first place so as the FED is Raising interest rates that is also working to raise prices
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