저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 명확한 단기 가격 예측은 없으며, 장기적으로 원자재와 중국에 대한 견해를 밝힘. 투자 철학: 잘 이해하고 성장 가능성이 확실한 대상에 투자하고, 기다리는 인내가 중요함. 저평가되고 무시된 자산에서 성과를 얻었으며, 보유 기간은 3~15년이 적당하다고 봄. 본인은 단기 매매와 타이밍 포착에 서툴다고 인정함. 자산 평가: 채권은 역사상 매우 비싸고, 부동산도 여러 곳에서 거품 상태라고 봄. 주식(애플, 아마존, 텐센트, 삼성 등)은 계속 오르며 거품이 형성되고 있다고 평가함. 반면 원자재(은 등)는 고점 대비 약 70% 하락해 상대적으로 가장 싸다고 봄. 우즈베키스탄에 최근 투자했다고 언급함. 가상자산: 비트코인은 1달러에서 6만 달러까지 올랐지만 본인은 보유하지 않으며, 대부분의 암호화폐는 결국 0이 될 것이라고 전망함. 장기 전망: 파운드화가 문제를 겪을 가능성을 언급함. 2050년 무렵에는 중국이 가장 성공적인 국가가 될 것이라고 봄. 기타: 본인의 과거 아쉬운 선택(IBM 투자, 옥스퍼드 대신 아시아 진출) 언급. 전기차 확산으로 구리·리튬 등 원자재 수요가 크게 늘어날 것이며, 이는 여러 시장에 도움이 된다고 봄.
다듬은 글
well you just said it if you like cars or motorcycles or something and you see a change that you know that you know is going to be successful because you know every day you go on the internet and you look at cars or you read magazines about cars Etc when you see something that you know is going to be successful do some research and make an investment and then please send me an email so I can do some research too as well but that's how you become successful you wait until you find something that you understand and you know is going to be successful and then you invest and and if something goes wrong you will know what to do if you investing in what you understand and you know and if it's something goes right you will know what to do bro David I know I'm the world's worst Market timer I've learned that in my investing career no matter what I want to invest in I know my timing is going to be bad I have learned to wait after I decide there's something I want to invest in but even then my timing is usually bad I am very bad at Market timing some people are great I've known people who they don't really know a whole lot about what they're investing in but they are fantastic Market timers they are great short-term Traders and that if they own something for a week it's a long time but they're so good at it they're so good in short-term trading and if they can be successful I'm terrible I'm horrible at short-term trading so I am not good at Market time I'm the wrong person to ask well if I've had success in my life is finding things that are depressed and usually mean they're ignored because if something's ignored it's usually not expensive it's usually depressed and finding change if I can find something that is cheap where there's enormous positive change taking place and I can make an investment I usually am successful in that investment it usually it often takes a while I told you my timing is not very good usually but I have learned to wait and then make an investment and then you know I I am lazy David but then if you by find Investments like that you can own them for three years five years ten years 15 years those are for me that's a great way to invest but as I said I know people who are owning something for three days is long term so there are different kinds of investors in the world the cheapest asset class I know are Commodities I mean bonds are certainly the highest they've been in history property in many places and then above them go to New Zealand or Korea or places you see bubbles in property in lots of places in many parts of America stocks some stocks have been you know apple and Amazon it's tencent and Samsung all stocks are going up all the time so bubbles developed were developing in those so the only thing I know that's still cheaper than Commodities I mean Silver's down 70 percent from its own hot sugars down 70 percent I mean people haven't been rushing out and buying a lot of Commodities in recent years I am not buying them at the moment myself but you're asking about cheap asset classes and some countries I mean Uzbekistan is very cheap right now I've made a few investments in Uzbekistan recently but it's hard to find stock markets or Bond markets that haven't been over exploited in the last few years that's what a long bull market does people get around to everything eventually well I have what I have learned about myself is I like to have the feeling that I can sell something and if you're investing in private Equity or Venture Capital you cannot sell it I don't like that feeling so I have learned enough about myself I like to think think that I can sell whether I can or sometimes you invest in some of these illiquid markets you really can't sell you thank you Cam yeah but no I I basically stay away from Venture Capital private markets in that regard you know when I when I finished College in in the 60s I went to Oxford I mean I should have gone to China I should have gone to Asia listen I had a wonderful time at Oxford deck don't think it wasn't spectacular and I learned a lot but if I look back if I had gone to Asia instead of Oxford I'd be really rich right now well I regret yeah I regret not buying IBM in 1914 also and a lot of things I regret that I didn't do uh but I mean I don't regret yeah Bitcoin went from a dollar to sixty thousand do I wish I had owned it of course I do but I do not know I do not mind missing things I've missed many things in my day and some things I just know it's not for me and I'm not going to buy and as far as I'm concerned most of the cryptocurrencies are going to go to zero eventually many already have as you know 100 already have really just hundreds have already disappeared they say it's different this time they say you don't understand you're too old you know I've heard all of this before same stories they call their friends and say it's very exciting it's not my first time I've seen this Rodeo before one currency for five years probably the pound sterling now I'm just dancing off the top of my head because I'm not doing it probably probably the pound sterling I said that's the currency that comes to mind I mean they're getting themselves into serious serious trouble in in Britain I don't like seeing it but uh the dead is gigantic keeps getting worse they're not solving the problem and making the problem I guess I would say the pound sterling if I think about this afternoon I'll I'll send you an email but another one well in 2050 I I would have to say it would be China China will certainly have problems along the way but I don't see anybody else it's not going to be Russia it's not going to be India in the same league I mean China whatever America became the most successful country in the 20th century but my gosh we had problems along the way we had depressions bankruptcy Civil War we had many problems but we became astonishingly successful China is having problems and they will have more but I don't see anybody else on the horizon that 30 years from now 80 years from now will be as successful as China well if I could go again I I went on a BMW before of us with BMWs were the best engineers and I'm a horrible mechanic I needed something reliable but if I were doing it again I would probably take a Honda because there are Hondas in every country in the world you know you can always get service getting service on a BMW it's hard because they're expensive and exotic to some free people but there are condos everywhere so I guess if I were doing it again I would probably do it on a Honda thing again because I am a hopeless mechanic David I am the world's worst become the worst Market drive around the world I drove a couple but I I don't have one I still have a gasoline engine Automobiles and so far so good what I read we're all going to have electric cars eventually and by the way that is going to cause electric cars from Association four or five times as much copper as a gasoline car it was going to cause distortions in many commodity markets LED lithium proper some to demand for something and people have not been opening compromise in a long time David or lead mines so that would be shifts in demand which will help a lot of markets
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