저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 연준·일본은행 등 주요 중앙은행의 과도한 통화 발행이 시장 왜곡과 막대한 부채를 낳고 있으며, 1980년대식 고금리 긴축 같은 고통스러운 조정이 필요하다고 본다. 통화 정책 관련 주장: 연준은 2021~2022년 인플레이션을 일시적이라 잘못 판단했고, 관료·학자들은 현실을 잘 모른다는 비판. 1980년 단기 국채금리가 21%를 넘었던 사례를 들어 현재 금리 인상은 충분치 않다고 봄. 미국 경제·지정학 관련 주장: 미국은 1980년 채권국에서 세계 최대 채무국으로 바뀌었고, 1776년 이후 15년을 제외하고 매년 어딘가에서 전쟁을 치러왔다고 언급. 우크라이나·대만 긴장 고조를 비판하며 방산주는 전쟁 시 잘 된다는 일반론을 제시. 경기 전망: 현재 경기침체가 널리 예상되어 오히려 실제로는 오지 않을 가능성을 언급. 중국의 경제 재개방이 세계 경기에 긍정적이라고 봄. 대선 주기상 3년차 증시는 통상 좋았다고 설명. 주식시장 관련: 현재 하락(약 19~20%)은 역사적으로 심각한 수준이 아니라고 평가. 큰 손실 후 서둘러 만회하려 하지 말고 기다리라는 조언, 본인의 공매도 실패 경험을 예로 듦. 출연자 전망: 짐 로저스는 구체적 가격 목표나 개별 종목 매수·매도 지시는 제시하지 않았고, 방산 섹터 일반론과 거시 위험 경고에 머묾.
다듬은 글
well back to what I said before they should only put their money where they themselves know a lot about where they're putting their money otherwise when things go wrong you don't know what to do and things probably will go wrong again you mentioned the 70s you know David we had big inflation in those days and as you point out it's worse now David in 1980 the interest rate on United States government treasury bills was over 21 that's not a typo they had to raise interest rates extremely what would be extremely high now in order to kill inflation interest rates are nothing compared to 21 now so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts do I think they've gone high enough no I know it's only less than two years ago that the Federal Reserve was saying there's not going to be inflation and then they said oh it's temporary don't worry this is transitory you know these guys don't know what they're doing most Central Bank officials or bureaucrats or academics they don't know how the world Works they just want to preserve their job but you said they've raised interest to make sure they have but I repeat they were 21 on treasury bills treasury bills a short-term treasury bills uh last time around so no we're going to have to have a lot of pain before we solve this problem well this is 2023 a book 2022 is finished we don't have we don't I don't think we have those risks and if we do David we have a very serious problem if we're still worried about 2022.
no the biggest risk of the federal central banks not just the Federal Reserve the guy in Japan has said you know he will print his word unlimited amounts of money and he does goes to work every day and prints as fast as he can we have a lot of central banks doing things like that they're in analyzer problem whenever you have a lot of money printing it distorts markets it distorts inflation it distorts interest rates and gigantic debt you know 1980 America was a creditor Nation we were still accredited now we're the largest detonation in the history of the world big things have changed since then but not for the good at least not as far as as an American which I am now I see what's happened there was no red I mean it was still red China then there was still Soviet Union then a lot of huge things that have changed in the world unfortunately I have always I am always worried about that history is pretty clear that we've had many many wars in history there was a study recently of American History America's been around since 1776 and every year except 15 of those years in 1776 America's been at War somewhere do I like that fact do I like that statement of course not but wait for whatever reason I should say Washington for whatever reason seems to like War so there's a very good Prospect you see what what we did in Ukraine we jab the Russians as often as we could you see what we're doing in Taiwan I mean Nancy Pelosi flew to Taiwan I mean she must want a war to fly to Taiwan to to jab the Chinese in the face you know why do you have to do that uh let's try to solve problems not aggravate problems well I have had investments in defense at times in my in my life I don't think I have many now if any but no certainly if we're going to be War I have War military companies will do very well they always have I don't think I have any investments in that sector right now maybe maybe I should listen to Kinto and go and look for some this afternoon well I I read the same things you do and I listen to KidCo the problem is it's very rare in history that everybody has known and in the recession is coming you know this is the most broadcast and most forecast last recession that I've ever seen in my life and knowing that people most people are usually wrong I would say we're probably not there depends on where you're talking about but for instance China has been closed now China is opening up that's going to give a big boost to the world economy because they are the second largest economy in the world so I would not be surprised if we're if it's not a recession yet I expected certainly to come you know David uh I'm sure you know you're a kid Joe the third year of a presidential cycle in American history usually Been a Good Year in the American Stock Market you know and this is the year three coming up and the reason that happened is politicians try to spend a lot of money preparing for year four the next election so they can get reelected so I I would imagine that things are really better than that we we read just because the world doesn't work that way if everybody knows something it's usually wrong well you just told them you you know what they know they know what to do they know to spend money they know who and their constituencies wants a new park or a new school or a new road and they'll spend it and they will do that they always have anyway these are the guys know how to buy boats and I suspect that they will do that that's not to say that there won't be a recession coming eventually it's just that this I have never seen in my investing can we all read about one that was so widely anticipated and so widely forecast the world just doesn't work that way when everybody knows something it's usually not right the bottom will the stock markets David the stock market's down what 19 or 20 percent something like that I've been around long enough to know that 19 or 20 percent are not very serious wager list down 70 or 80 percent whether you see companies going bankrupt left right and Center so far this is not fun do not get me wrong this is not fun but this is certainly not dramatic or even significant in the history of financial markets well unfortunately many people when they're down 50 70 percent say oh my gosh I've lost a lot of money now I have to go back and make it back and then they start taking more risk and my answer to them is no you don't have to act quickly the best thing you can do is to sit and do not nothing for a while recover figure out what's going on because if you just rush in when you're emotionally wounded after losing a lot of money you're usually going to make even more mistakes so my best advice to people at that stage is do nothing close the window and just wait recover and then wait until you find something that you know is going to be good do not get emotional now listen I make the same mistakes David don't think I I don't the reason I know this happened is because it happens to me it happens to everybody well I I once had a great great success in the markets uh gigantic success and I got very cocky I began to think I was smart I began to think I knew what I was doing uh I had so short and I had actually bought puts and made a lot of money so I covered my puts on the day the market made the bottom and so I said well I'll wait for the market to rally and then I'll sell ashore and I did and the market rallied I sold short and but you know three or four months later I was wiped out and the reason I was wiped out is because I still did not know a lot about markets I assumed that people knew what I knew that most of the companies I shorted went bankrupt in the end but I lost everything first David because I did not know enough about markets I did not know about trading I did not know enough how markets reacted and how the public reacted and so I lost everything now I was very depressed don't think this was fun I guess I could have become a priest or kill myself or who knows what but I I didn't all I could do was start over and I did and somehow on the other I survived and my best advice to everybody is what I said before if you lose a lot of money don't think you have to jump in and make it up again right away calm down wait recover until you find something that you know will work
Comments 0