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I must say I'm in my old age reaching a point where I have a little trouble convincing myself that the stock market is that important and that uh we live in an age where some much more important issues are playing out but um I view the stock market now really as a a hobby and uh the one thing that I have kept going is resources and climate change related investing and also for Old Time sake investment bubbles since I've been doing that for 40 or 50 years and since I find myself unexpectedly in the third great investment bubble of my career basically in the US so I can't avoid it and this is a wonderful day to be having this discussion it's not only victory over Hitler in Russia day but it's also a day where the market is showing signs of breaking down through yesterday it's the worst opening of a year year for the S&P since I was one year old in 1939 I am a pre-war baby and of course the NASDAQ is down as we speak 275% from its high and the Russell 2000 about 23 S&P about 15 and a half so it's getting to be interesting and as we were saying before Bitcoin from some point in the last 24 hours is down 10% to 32,000 and change so that is getting interesting and Arc Kathy Wood's wonderful instrument is back to it where it was in 2018 I'm not kidding you it is back below this entire event now which is quite remarkable down 75% from its peak as is AMC down 75% from its peak and the other meme stops are in ragged disarray so this is The Real McCoy seems to be playing out pretty close to 2000 always considered myself a fairly serious amate historian what I've done in bubble territory is I I don't try and build models to explain every day I focus on the four Great bubbles which are characterized by nearly hysterical Behavior really seriously weird over optimism which is very rare which are characterized by accelerated price moves on the upside and um by a weird deviation on the upside between the Blue Chips going up and the risky stocks going down and that is rare as hen teeth it happened brilliantly in 29 it happened during the year 2000 again in Spades with the S&P X growth continuing to go up through September of 2000 and the growth stocks basically going down 50% and the U internet stocks dropping maybe 60 70% by then so that was spectacular and uh we we saw a very handsome deviation between the S&P Rising last year and the Russell 2 for example dropping quite handsomely so there was a 20 25 point spread on the upside and that for me is a pretty good indicator and I'll tell you what it describes it describes Mr Prince's I've got to keep dancing because the music's still playing and we understand that completely the enormous commercial imperative of the industry to play up to an over the edge but they're not complete idiots and so they say well I've got to keep dancing but I don't have to keep dancing with pumch the most advanced stock in 99 I'm going to transfer to Coca-Cola and I'll keep dancing it off the edge but I'll go off with Coca-Cola and it works the coca-colas may be handsomely overpriced but in 1929 and 22 2001 and so on they always go down a lot less as the bubble breaks and that's the phenomenon that causes this very rare indicator of impending doom which we saw last year and so by early this year it seemed clear to me that this was not only The Real McCoy bubble which had been clear for a year or so in terms of pricing and enthusiasm but it had triggered this very rare indicator of impending doom in other words now and so our piece of a year and a bit ago was called waiting for the last dance and our equivalent followup this January was let the wild rumpus begin I.E We're In It dudes and I do believe we are and I believe the declines will be very substantial we have a market today which feels superficially like 2000 and I think it's going to play out initially like 2000 and then unfortunately it's going to phase As He suggests into the 70s where the uh deflationary effects on the economy and the stock market will result in a world rather like the 70s where all assets are simply much lower priced than they are today a word on on inflation too I would summarize is monetary and general Federal Reserve over stimulus for 30 35 years the war and covid all of those three influencers guaranteeing that we have a relatively intractable problem in the short intermediate term what worries me is the longer term Arguments for inflation which is one we are running out of people in China where the 500 million extra Farmers precipitated globalization they have now had diminishing cohorts of 20 year olds for 20 years and they are guaranteed since they're alive now we know the baby cohorts are dropping like a stone they are simply going to have a shortage of Labor as is the developed world together that is not a trivial blocked the developed World Plus China all of them will be squeezed for labor after the bu BC plague they had a 100-year honeymoon period in which wages went up so much it wasn't reached for another several hundred years in the industrial revolution and we are entering a period where labor is simply scarce which feels to me inflationary and at the same time we have a scarcity beginning in resources and we keep an original unusual index it's 36 equal weighted important the most important Commodities so it's not dominated by oil and it showed a declining pattern for 102 years from 1900 to 2002 and yes it was interrupted by World War I and World War II and OPEC why wouldn't it be but it wanted to go down it went down 70% it took the index down to 30 today 122 years later the index is down 10% it has gone to 90 the average important commodity has just spent the last 20 years going from 30 to 90 it has tripled the reason is of course the growth of China but I believe fairly passionately looking at the data that it also represents the intrinsic scarcity the war between deeper wells worse iron ore Etc the best go first the struggle is always between technology which for 100 years got ahead of scarcity it was two pace down for deeper and three and a half Paces up for technology and now we've reached a phase where we've gone through that stuff and now we have two paces up for technology and three Paces down for scarcity the data is screaming at us now for 20 years that we're beginning to run out and a war of course and Co we're so fragile all you have to do is cough now and it ricochets around the world in price spikes and shortages and bottlenecks and that is the world we better get used to living in we're going to have a world of increasing number of bottlenecks and shortages and the same applies to food the UN food index is higher today than any time in its history of the last 50 years since it started so you have price pressure on raw materials Metals food you have price pressure longterm on labor this surely feels like a new era in which uh inflation will be part of the background music just like it was in the 20th century and perhaps more so the risks of a debt bubble breaking and the risks of an equity bubble breaking have simply not been understood by our Federal Reserve since Paul Boer they are incredibly naive they haven't even got a clue they're not even interested in the idea the idea banki saying oh the US housing Market's always has never declined it merely reflects a strong us economy Alan Greenspan encouraging etc etc
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