저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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연준이 인플레이션 억제를 위해 금리를 CPI 5% 이상 수준까지 더 올려야 하며, 과거 사례상 금리가 균형금리 대비 두 배 가까이 가야 한다는 논리. 과잉 유동성 흡수 과정에서 추가 금리인상, 소비자신용 붕괴, 브라질 등 지정학 리스크가 시장을 흔들 것으로 봄. 에너지(유럽 원전 냉각 문제, 강 수위 저하)가 다시 핵심 이슈가 될 수 있다고 지적. 변동성 지수 VIX가 10대 후반으로 가면 변동성 매도/주식 매수 전략 대신 주식 숏 성향 언급, 상황이 더 나빠져야 시장이 정리될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
It's always important from my perspective to just take the other side and intellectually debate with oneself why the other side could be right so at this point right now what people would say is okay the fed's going to capitulate at the beginning part of 2023 we have a pretty clear forecast for all the rate increases that have to happen everybody's doing the work that's necessary either raising prices cutting costs or doing both letting people go etc etc so maybe we're there but what's the other side of that I think again as I've stated before the other side starts with energy and the reason why I think it's important is that it really is the conflation of an economic system and a political system using an instrument and if you look inside of what's happening in Europe there's a lot of complexities here that I think need to get unpacked so for example a couple days ago the French government basically said that they're going to start producing less nuclear energy and you'd say well why would they do that well it turns out because the temperatures are so high you cannot use the water to cool these nuclear reactors is because the exiting water is then so hot that would actually destroy the ecosystem of the lakes and rivers that they use to feed natural fresh water in to cool the nuclear reactor second because it's so hot all the rivers are below their natural level barges that carry coal and that gas are getting stuck on the danu the PO which is the longest river in Italy that feeds all the fields is below the level where it can actually offload the water so farmers can't basically do what they need to do to produce a food supply so if you play all of that out you to see an issue where by November of this year we're back into the same complexity where energy is the tip of the spear around which everybody starts to debate all of the National Security issues that we have to deal with the Ukraine war etc etc you've made a lot of money this year by basically doing the following which is the exact opposite of everybody else when everybody else was freaking out had you bought you would have made a ton of money now everybody's like it's over and you can tell that by looking at the vix which is the volatility indest we're about to get into the high teens you have systematically it has been true that the vix is in the teens you tend to basically buy volatility which is essentially you get short stocks and when the vix is in the 30s you tend to basically sell volatility and you buy equities because we've hit the bottom if you've been doing that for the last year you've made a ton of money so I tend to think things still have to get a lot worse to flush everything through the system we've never seen a moment in history in American history where when CPI has printed successively above 5% that it got under 5% with fed funds getting to that same number so we should all hope that this is the exception that proves the rule but there's an enormous amount of data that would tell you that we have to take rates to double what the equilibrium rate is thought to be right now there's always stuff going on in markets and markets represent the collective sum of our wishes and expectations and also the realities this is why I think for me at least the way that I process this information is not trying to have an opinion on any one of those things because I just for me i' rather go back to the historical Trends because those I find a little bit easier to parse and the real problem is that like if I go back to the historical artifacts have there been issues in the past absolutely so this is why I think you can look at the fact that whenever there's inflation and whenever it's spiked what has had to happen by the FED is you have to take rates above that key 5% threshold when CPI is above 5% to break enough demand so that the economies reset I think that's where we are so instead of trying to figure out I'd rather just say there are 20 or 30 things that could very much complicate the world economy I think the reality is that governments need to flush all this excess money out of the system so that we can really find out what equum demand is and get back to normal that era of cheaper faster better is over and what comes with that is better National Security but the cost of that better National Security is higher prices and there's nothing that we can do to avoid that I'm not sure I agree with the less growth I actually think that there's enough excess SL to be absorbed by all of this free money that I think you can still have sustained growth but it will come with higher interest rates and higher inflation and higher input costs everybody will have to do their part to absorb some of this but that's what's going to happen and I you should just deal with the medicine as quickly as possible this is why the people that actually think that the FED should just be very aggressive and get this over with quickly I suspect on the margins are right the problem is they don't want to look at the Historical artifact because the historical artifact would say wait I need to raise interest rates by another 250 basis points that's just way too disruptive for what the world is ready to hear right now so we're going to incrementally plot along there's going to be a wack-a-mole that emerges that's going to tilt the markets then the consumer credit thing will implode that's going to tilt the markets then Jer bolsonaro will try to take over Brazil that'll tilt the markets and we'll go back to this you know inflationary fragmented de globalized view of the world that just frankly takes higher interest rates to normalize the thing that we really have going on is that over the last eight quarters we've had all kinds of very turbulent data that's made the the trend line unpredictable and the most obvious way to see this is actually in one specific sub sector which we'll get to in a second you see this one huge Spike coming out of nowhere and then eventually everything has settled back to Trend the same way I think what we're waiting to figure out is how many quarters does it take for us to get back to on Trend growth in the economy we had a massive shortfall in Q2 of 2020 we had a massive Surplus in Q3 of 2020 we've had a country that's been getting back to gring equilibrium over the last five quarters so we don't really know what the steady state growth should be this is why I specifically had such an issue with the tone the White House took which was trying to explain away that this isn't a recession by trying to create doubt in the definition instead I think it would have been much better off just repeating what I just said and explaining basic statistics and actually showing that the country is headed in the right direction largely speaking from a really crazy one-time external it that nobody could have predicted that it's going to take some number of quarters and so really what you should look at is employment and wages and try to be a little bit more circumspect and overreacting to any one quarter of data by the way the FED exactly just said the same thing when they raised 75 basis points they said we are not going to give guidance anymore because things are too turbulent we're going to remain Vigilant on inflation but mostly we're going to be very near-term data dependent so I would boil all of this in saying let's not overreact to a quarter print here or there and specifically the label I think the White House made a mistake in trying to basically think you know we all didn't understand what a technical recession was I think instead we should just focus on what we have to do to get back to solid state equilibrium the point is access money because of loose Financial conditions distort what true supply and demand should be and excess money can come from the government but in this case excess money went from the government into the hands of individuals who then participated in the public markets and they distorted what it all looked like and and so there was a lot of purchasing activity that was propped up by what seemed like an endless supply of free money and so now that that money is getting taken out we don't yet know what the real equilibrium economic growth rate should be because you have to remember we have not seen an era without federally introduced spending without federally introduced forms of quantitative easing since the great financial crisis so we have been propping up our economy for 14 years straight now so we have distorted the prices of bonds and fixed income we've distorted the prices of equities we've created an asset bubble in crypto out of nowhere and now we have to do the hard work of figuring out what the real Supply demand is in the economy and we don't know shell and Exxon and these guys are printing enormous record profits you know Putin cut nordstream by another 50% it was already running at 40% capacity he cut it down to 20% it's only getting worse making the problem even worse so because howwell was catering to whatever pressure he's been getting and he must be getting some severe pressure from the White House
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