저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 변동성은 계속되겠지만 인도 주식에 대한 장기적 강세 시각을 유지하며, 배당·재무건전성 좋은 기업과 산업재 쪽을 선호한다. 시장 상황: 인도 증시는 가격 하한 서킷브레이커 발동 후 당일 큰 폭으로 반등했고, 고점 대비 약 20% 조정 후 18~19% 조정 수준으로 줄었다고 언급. 최근 2주간 인도와 글로벌 변동성이 급등했다. 투자 전략: 밸류에이션에 따라 매수 한도(진입가)를 정해두고 기다리라는 조언. 변동성이 계속될 것이므로 한도에 닿으면 매수하고 아니면 시장이 올 때까지 기다리는 방식. 종목 선택 기준: 배당 수익률이 높고 재무구조가 탄탄한 기업, 위기를 헤쳐갈 수 있는 견고한 경영진 보유 기업을 선호. 신용 경색으로 공급업체 결제 곤란과 재무적 어려움 기업이 늘어날 것이라고 경고. 은행주: 52주 저점 근처에서 거래되는 우량 은행주는 정부의 구제 조치로 매력이 생길 수 있어 살펴볼 만하다고 언급. 다만 부실대출 증가 가능성이 커 은행별 대출 포트폴리오를 개별 평가해야 하며, 장부가 대비 낮은 PBR만으로는 안전하지 않다고 지적. 선호 섹터: 인프라와 소비재 관련 제품을 생산하는 산업재 기업이 향후 더 흥미롭다고 판단. 바닥 판단: 일부 구간에서는 이미 바닥을 찍었을 수 있으나, 급락 후 반등과 하락이 반복되는 바닥 형성 과정으로 보며 여전히 출렁일 가능성이 크다고 전망. 자금 흐름: 최근 2주간 외국인이 인도 주식 약 50억 달러를 순매도했으나, 가장 큰 자금 이탈은 이미 지나갔고 시장 안정 후 소액 자금이 점진적으로 유입되는 바닥 매집 국면으로 예상. 출연자 전망 요약: 인도 시장에 대해 장기적으로 강세 입장이며, 단기 변동성은 인정하나 가격 조건을 기다리는 분할·조건부 접근을 권고.
다듬은 글
hi mark good afternoon from India and thanks a lot for joining us today we will be open today there was a trading halt there was a lower circuit of about 10% and now we are witnessing the biggest intraday recovery for Indian equities and you've also highlighted in the past that at current levels valuations are looking good you like Indian equities do you think the capitulation period is over and one can take a fresh look on Indian equities of course I think you always have to be looking as you know I'm quite bullish on India generally so we're continuously looking at it but we have to also realize that the volatility is going to continue I mean one day you'll see it going up dramatically the next day going down dramatically so what you have to do is pick your limits based on the valuations and then stick with them and you know if it gets hit fine if it doesn't let let the market move but we have to expect a lot of volatility going forward in fact that's been the theme mark at least in the last two weeks volatility not just in India but globally has been spiking how should one figure out what to buy at these levels what pockets then to you do you go for you know stocks which were richly valued but the valuations may have come off from the peak valuations we've seen in the recent past or you go for dividend yielding stocks well you know I have a bias towards different yielding stocks but not only that companies with good balance sheets must remember we're entering a period now where there'll be lots of strife the lots of suppliers will not be able to to pay their bills and some companies will get into financial strife so you have to get companies with strong balance sheets companies that are able to pay dividends because that will enable you to stay in for a long term and also companies that have really solid management's that can handle the crisis that we're facing markup officially we've corrected 20 percent from the top and now with today's gain of course we'll be somewhere about 18 19 percent correction from the top do you think volatility continues to remain high at these levels but still someone can go ahead and take a bet if that's the call we've seen the maximum volatility in couple of these good-quality banking stocks is well would you take a look at these banking stocks good companies which are trading at 52-week low levels yes I would take a look at those particularly now that the government is bailing out yes bank so it might look better but frankly our preference would be for industrial stocks that are working on products that serve the infrastructure and consumer oriented Sox those are the ones that I think are going to be more interesting going forward but as I said I expect the volatility set your limits look at the valuations once you have a valuation which is attractive then set your limits at that point and just wait for the market to come to you mr.
Mobius good afternoon a lot of these high-quality banking names are by virtue of the fall that they've seen now trading sub the ten-year averages on the price-to-book these were not bought over the last one year because they were always expensive if they have now become moderate is that a part of was something that you would look at or consider yes we consider it but please remember that the number of bad loans will be increasing of course the government is giving the bank's more leeway in the way of assessing or categorizing those loans but as shareholders you can have a real problem going forward because the bank could be sitting on a lot of bad loans so you have to evaluate these banks on an individual basis to see what is this nature of their book a price the book of course you've got to look at but that book may be somewhat faulty okay not one last question from mine mr.
Mobius this is certainly not the end of it we've seen a bounce today in India and maybe some of the other markets in today's session do you reckon that we form the near-term bottom or would you reckon that it's still going to be too choppy and volatile I think it could still be very choppy and volatile I think at some points we have already to the bottom you know we'd come down dramatically and then bounce up and down so it's a bottom forming situation that we're now seeing just one last question with regard to the flows that we've been seeing of course there is an outflow in the last two weeks FIS have sold nearly five billion worth of Indian equities how do you see the fun flow is panning out especially at a time when globally equities are witnessing a sell-off well I think this is probably the biggest flows have already taken place going forward you're probably gonna see flows coming back again once the market begins to stabilize particularly in the US so probably the biggest outflows are ot taking place and now we're probably going to be on a sort of a bottom-feeding sort of process with some clothes coming in small amounts coming in until the market picks up okay mr.
Moody's believe it on that note appreciate you joining us today and taking us through your thoughts and what's happening with the global equities in specially India and have a good weekend hopefully everyone has a good weekend after a tumultuous week that we've seen for the global market you
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