저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 코로나19 공급망 충격으로 글로벌 증시 압박은 계속될 것이며, 회복은 하반기 이후로 보는 게 맞다. [시장 전망] 코로나19 확산으로 글로벌 투자심리가 크게 위축됐고, 중국 본토 신규 확진은 다소 진정되는 조짐이 있으나 타 지역 확산이 변동성을 키우고 있다. 이번 주는 2008년 이후 글로벌 주식 최악의 한 주로 평가된다. [공급망·실적 영향] 중국 공급망 차질이 전 세계 기업에 영향을 준다. 의약품 원자재의 약 80%가 중국에서 나온다는 예시를 들었다. 이 충격은 내년 실적 하향으로 이어질 것이다. JP모건 짐 설리번 언급을 인용하며 밸류에이션이 높고 실적이 의문스러워 빠른 회복을 주장하기 어렵다고 봤다. [회복 시점·정책] 회복은 하반기로 밀릴 가능성이 있다. 중앙은행과 정부가 부양책을 준비 중이지만 효과는 하반기에 나타날 것이다. 트럼프의 감세 등 추가 지원이 상황을 완화할 수는 있으나 실적 훼손을 막기는 어렵다. 부양책만으로는 기업 실적이 받쳐지지 않으면 효과가 제한적이다. [인도] 인도는 상대적으로 양호하다. 공급망 이전 수혜 가능성이 있고, 트럼프 방문 이후 한·미·인도 관계 개선이 추가 자극이 될 수 있다. 외국인 자금이 복귀할 수 있으나 인도 정부의 대응 속도가 관건이다. 인도 증시는 과거 유동성 장세로 고평가 논란이 있었다. [금] 금 가격이 사상 최고 수준이라 지금 추격 매수는 권하지 않는다. 다만 조정 시 매수 기회로 보고, 자산의 약 10% 실물 금 보유를 1~2년째 권해왔다. [투자 전략] 시기 조절은 매우 어렵다. 배당을 꾸준히 지급하는 기업 중심으로 하락 시 분할 매수(평균단가 매수)하는 것이 합리적이다. 바닥 시점은 아무도 모른다. [경기·유가·인플레] 부양책이 과잉되더라도 현재는 인플레보다 디플레 추세가 더 큰 흐름이다. 진짜 위험은 공급망 차질과 실적 훼손이다. 유가 하락은 인도 등 원유 수입국에 긍정적이며, 장기적으로 화석연료 수요는 태양광·풍력 전환으로 약해질 것으로 본다. [성장률] 미국 등 세계 경제 성장률은 약 0.5%p 하향 조정이 필요하다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners he's joining us right down to show mark thanks very much for taking all the time and speaking with us global market sentiment has been completely dampened by the spread of coronavirus and not just the fact that you know the Chinese mainland is starting to see some bit of respite in terms of the number of new cases but the rest of the globe is pitching in with its own volatility and its own a spike in number of cases you feel that now the pressure builds on the equity markets in a bigger fashion because we hadn't yet paid heed to the coronavirus up until now yes I think the pressure will continue and I think the main reason for that is that the unusual image in this case is because it stems from China with this virus beginning in China and then spreading it puts a big big pressure on the the supply chain for people around the world as you know for example if you take pharmaceuticals something like 80 percent of all the raw materials pharmaceuticals globally comes from China so if that supply chain is interrupted that affects companies all over the world so I think as we go forward if this continues then the impact will be much greater than people think well for you know market watchers the recovery may get pushed to the second half of the year that's when you know we are already seeing a lot of central banks and the government's trying to ensure that there is stimulus in the system but that would probably play up in the second half of the year in light of that if there is a recovery that is to happen do you feel it will linger and will take its time or do you feel that the recovery could be a faster clip well of course it for example let's say President Trump decides to lower tax rates again or provide some other assistance to businesses that could ameliorate the situation there may help in situation a lot but it still remains the fact that this wide chain interruption has worldwide consequences and that of course will be felt in the earnings that we see coming down next year so if you're talking about earnings coming down and a pertinent point that was made earlier in the morning by you know Jim Sullivan from JPMorgan he says that you know to argue in favor of a speedy recovery will be futile because multiples are extremely elevated and earnings are questionable so in light of that if you put both these factors together you cannot argue for a recovery anytime soon that's right that's that's a reason why you have a combination is situation particularly in the US where the market has done so well so long a correction this magnitude has big impacts and of course as I said with the supply chain interruption the situation could spread globally Mekhi in light of all the factors that we've been discussing of course around coronavirus and it's touted to be this week has touted to be the worst week for global equities since 2008 now I want to focus a bit on India even when the markets were moving higher last year's rally was you know liquidity driven at that point of time fi money was coming into India even when people were saying that it's one of the most expensive markets in emerging market space with the recent correction now how do you approach the Indian markets if and when the concerns around coronavirus start to ease well I think India looks pretty good and if you consider just the fact that so many Indians own gold and with gold prices doing well in this kind of environment that means that India is in a pretty good position now going forward they're increasing with the visit by Trump I think relations between India and the US should get better and that would provide additional stimulus to the Indian economy do you then feel money coming back with his last few days selling could also be ETF related which lot of market participants have been highlighting just in last four sessions by the way if I have sold over 1 billion door in India which is pretty much a big number you know just in for trading sessions so do you see foreign money coming back into India once these you know of worries around Karuna Wireless start to ease yes I do and simply because a lot of companies around the world to give you to realize that they very vulnerable depending only on China for their supply chain and therefore India will be in a good position to pick up some of that business the question now is how fast the Indian government will respond and facilitate this kind of move by the multi ministers but you touched upon gold as well of course back home in India gold prices are at all-time high in situations like these investors tend to flock towards safe havens like gold if I were to ask you with the recent correction that we've already seen for equities what's looking more attractive do videos advise to Park money into safe havens like gold or it's good valuations now for equities well you know I've been a year or two now that I've been recommending that people abs and these 10% of their assets in physical gold I'm not recommending that you rush into gold at this stage with prices and a high but any correction would provide an opportunity to buy more mr.
moopheus I just just wondering if if somebody is looking to allocate fresh money right now would buying at the current levels be a prudent call or because of the fact that this is a bit of an imponderable as to what extent and the pace at which it could do damage to economy because people will not be mobile enough and moving out enough it's prudent to just hang on for the time being and wait for the dust to settle better to buy once the print is in place as opposed to trying to catch a falling knife what would be your suggestion reasonable advice but the point is it's very very difficult to time the market as you know markets have their own behavior and very difficult to predict but I think it's very important for people to focus on company that are paying dividends so in other words if you have a company that's come down a lot and it's too pain solid dividends and then it's a good idea to buy of course you can do average cost buying on the way down but no one knows when the bottom will reach but if the company's paying dividends it makes a lot of sense to buy such companies mr.
Mobius the other thing is when I look at I mean for example when I looked at my own website and just looking at or the Bloomberg website and looking at stimulus almost all of the Asian markets are Asian economies are looking at giving some form of the other of stimulus do you reckon such a combined stimulus would be enough to negate any kind of fall out due to work disruption caused by coronavirus of course it'll help there's no question about that but the fact remains that you know you can do all kinds of stimulus but if the earnings are not coming in by the companies then it's not going to have that much effect that's true what one small question really and that is the kind of view that people might have towards individual economies and I've heard a lot of opinion talk about how because of the crude price fall and the inward looking economy that India is the damage might not be that bad on India with a presumption of course that Wireless doesn't make it said went into India thus far we've been saved out here do you think people will distinguish between a maker distinguishing factor like this or all all EMS or all Asian markets will be painted with the same brush for the time being now of course people will differentiate and of course the good news is with the oil price decline then helps India and out further oil importing countries but the bottom line is that as India and other countries move away from fossil fuels generally into solar and wind the future for oil I think is not very bright to begin with so this is all all this very well for India mr.
mobis you know do you feel that in light of what you just spoke about with regard to the stimulus coming in from various governments that that could pose its own challenges because while we might be seeing the implications of coronavirus right now this is pretty time bound so once we see this reversing course on top of that an overstimulated economy global economy will have its own challenges to face because earnings will still not be able to pick up towards the Fagin of the second half Rodya and inflation would would rear its ugly head because of the over stimulated economy so in in such a situation what could one do I don't worry too much about inflation then if you look at just oil prices which have a lot to do with inflation you realize that inflation is not going to really had any time soon the general trend by the way is deflation not inflation so I think the worry about inflation is not to worry that we have to really concern ourselves with the real worry as I mentioned in supply chain interruption and the impact it has on earnings that that's really what the impact will be because I said if you're buying companies that have paid dividends on a steady basis and continue to pay dividends baby because of the supply disruption and then less and previously then you're in pretty safe ground one last question mr.
Mobius in your assessment of course we've not received many reports highlighting what sort of an impact will coronavirus have on the global economic growth now any assessment from your side yeah I would say that a half a percent change is warranted in other words the u.s. maybe will have maybe a half a percent change from what the projected the growth is going to be and I think that's true for the world economy as well mr.
moopheus we leave it on that note appreciate you joining us today and taking us through your thoughts on what's happening with the world equities and whether there can be any sort of recovery from these levels or not you
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